Daniel Mengden Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Daniel Mengden struck out five Cardinals, did not allow a run and just four hits through six innings last time out. It was his best start of the season, although he’s allowed one run or less in four of six outings. However, he owns just a 6.2 K-BB% with a 4.03 ERA the pure product of a 3.0 HR/FB that’s completely unsustainable. His .327 xwOBA, 5.48 SIERA and 5.59 DRA all suggest major regression in his future and the Twins (112 wRC+, 20.3 K%, 16.7 HR/FB vs RHP) could be an immediate cause of some of that fall back. LHBs have just a .314 wOBA, but a .380 xwOBA against Mendgen over the last calendar year with a 50% hard hit rate and 36.2 GB%. LHBs projected to be in the Minnesota lineup tonight include Max Kepler (133 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Jorge Polanco (144 wRC+, .201 ISO), Marwin Gonzalez (96 wRC+, .155 ISO), Luis Arraez (168 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Jason Castro (120 wRC+, .280 ISO). The Twins are implied for a healthy 4.75 runs that’s merely good enough to rest in the middle of today’s board.

Daniel Mengden has completed six innings in five straight starts, four of which he pitched into the seventh in, completing seven in each of his last three, in which he's allowed a total of three runs over 24 innings. He's only struck out seven of 84 batters over that span and has just a 16.2 K% on the season, while xwOBA (.338) has a larger disagreement with his actual wOBA (81 point difference) than any other pitcher on the board tonight. That disagreement extends to batters from either side of the plate since last season. RHBs have a .283 wOBA and LHBs just .248, but xwOBA raises those marks 55 and 88 points respectively to within four points of .340 each. Vegas is siding with the Rangers (5.11) at home tonight. Mengden's recent success could leave an affordable offense under-owned in a great hitting environment. Joey Gallo (124 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Nomar Mazar (104 wRC+, .199 ISO) and Shin-Soo Choo (117 wRC+, .203 ISO) all exceed a 140 wRC+ and 45 Hard% over the last seven days as well.

Daniel Mengden may not be a name you get excited about rostering for DFS purposes, but he has been a surprisingly consistent source of value so far this season. In his last three starts against BOS, HOU, and BAL (not the easiest pitching matchups) he has managed at least 15 DK points in each, and even picked up a win at Fenway Park in his last outing in the process. Mengden has had success by not issuing free passes - he has faced 92 LH hitters this year and is yet to walk a single one. Today he faces a Blue Jays team that has a 24.6% K-rate, which may raise his floor as well. As value pitching is going to be important on a slate with so many high priced bats in great spots, Mengden may be a sneaky but solid source of value to build around.

The Boston Red Sox have a board high 5.77 implied run line (by nearly a half run) at home against Daniel Mengden. Mengden is not a terrible pitcher, but has a 90.1 mph aEV this season with batters from either side of the plate above a 38% hard hit rate. That's a dangerous tendency in the most positive run environment on the board in Boston. J.D. Martinez (153 wRC+, .344 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mookie Betts (109 wRC+, .214 ISO) are the obvious bats with Hanley Ramirez (99 wRC+, .180 ISO), Mitch Moreland (113 wRC+, .241 ISO), Eduardo Nunez (123 wRC+, .180 ISO) and Andrew Benintendi (111 wRC+, .178 ISO) in support.

Gerrit Cole threw a one-hitter with 16 strikeouts in his last start and has struck out 28 of his last 55 batters faced. He's only even allowed three runs once and has missed seven innings just by a single out once this year with 11 or more strikeouts in all but two starts. The only issue is how to afford him for $13.4K on a board with enormous offensive expectations. Daniel Mengden may be part of that solution for $4.9K. While the Astros are a very difficult assignment, their 4.62 implied run line is not near the top of the afternoon board. He's allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts, has a reasonable 18 K% (9.1 SwStr%) and 4.07 SIERA this season. He's not ideal, but he is incredibly cheap and potentially necessary. An added bonus, he won't have to face Carlos Correa this afternoon. Of course, there remains upside on the opposite end of this matchup as well. Each of the first six batters in the Houston offense have a wRC+ above 120 and ISO above .185 vs RHP over the last calendar year, though only George Springer (.220) gets above a .195 ISO in an incredibly balanced lineup in that aspect.

Martin Perez was held back due an elbow issue and will make his first start in Oakland. Combine that with a 14.2 K% last season and this is not a pitcher players want to be rostering against an Oakland lineup with some right-handed thump. Although Kevin mentions a possibility of rain, this is one of the less risky afternoon games without freezing temperatures. RHBs had a .362 wOBA with an xwOBA 10 points higher against Perez last season and a 45.4 GB% with a 34.5 Hard%. Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, and Chad Pinder are the top right-handed bats against southpaws since last season. All three have a wRC+ between 105 and 115 with an ISO between .200 and .230. Pinder costs less than $3K on either site out of the two hole. Daniel Mengden is an interesting arm on a slate where it might be worth speculating for less than $7K on either site. While he got torched for five earned runs in 5.2 innings by the Angels Saturday, he struck out five, while walking one without a HR. A recent Fangraphs scouting report suggests a lingering rib injury contributed to 2017 struggles and said that "everything is average or a tick above" when health and in fact, his first game velocity was about a half-mile per hour above last year in his first start. Mengden only had a 17.2 K% last year and carries some risk against an offense that can make some hard contact, but they struck out 24.3% against RHP last year with just an 82 wRC+ on the road. Joey Gallo (124 wRC+, .350 ISO, 46.7 Hard%, 57.5 FB% vs RHP since last season) is certainly a significant threat to go deep..

Following Kendall Graveman's move to the DL, Mengden has been called up from Triple-A to start against the Indians this afternoon. The right-handed pitcher will have a tough task facing a squad that is currently projected to have five of the first six batters hitting from the left side of the plate. Through 14 major league starts and 158 total LHB faced, all of which came in 2016, he posted a .356 wOBA and a .176 ISO to go along with a 35.6% GB% and a 32.6% Hard%. Although he had a fine K% of 21.4% overall and 21.5% against LHB, he had a high 9.9% BB% to all batters and an 11.4% BB% to lefties. He finished the season with a 6.5 ERA, although his 4.5 SIERA and .344 BABIP indicates he may have been a little unlucky. Still, it seems like a great pitcher to attack with a lefty-heavy team and Vegas agrees, providing the Indians with the second-highest projected run total on the slate (5.6). If the projected lineup holds, Cleveland will offer some solid fly ball hitters and five LHB with ISOs of at least .196 this season- Lindor (47.0% FB%, 14.9% HR/FB, .356 wOBA, 125 wRC+ vs RHP this season), Ramirez (50.0% FB%, 13.0% HR/FB, .369 wOBA, 135 wRC+), Santana (41.3% FB%, 7.9% HR/FB, .343 wOBA, 116 wRC+), and Brantley (33.7% FB%, 13.8% HR/FB, .383 wOBA, 146 wRC+) are the top targets. Rookie Bradley Zimmer has only made 25 plate appearances this season but he's been hot with a .250 ISO, 45.5% FB%, 20.0% HR/FB, .459 wOBA, 197 wRC+, and a 41.7% Hard%. His .545 BABIP indicates he's had luck on his side though. Even so, he's an interesting option in a GPP stack. Jason Kipnis' ISO is just .136 and his wOBA is .277 but he's been putting the ball in the air with a 44.4% FB% and he's posted a 33.3% Hard%. RHB Encarnacion (35.4% FB%, 25.0% HR/FB, .323 wOBA, 102 wRC+, 39.2% Hard%) is another solid target despite Mengden putting up slightly better numbers against RHB (.354 wOBA, .173 ISO, 43.1% FB%, 26.9% Hard%). Be sure to check out Cleveland's official lineup when it's released as this could be one of the better teams to target on the early slate.

Daniel Mengden has struck out 19 of his last 71 batters, but with just a 9.2 SwStr%, so it might be a mistake to jump on board here, especially facing the Angels (16.4 K% vs RHP). While batters from both sides have a wOBA just below .340 against him, the Angels stack up almost entirely right-handed, but unfortunately that comes more from a high walk rate than a lot of hard contact (29.7%). Mike Trout (170 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the best hitter in baseball and playable generally any night players can afford him. Kole Calhoun (111 wRC+, .166 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is too cheap on DraftKings ($3.2K).