Daniel Robertson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

In 23 innings this year, Chris sale has posted an inflated 7.43 ERA with a 2.35 HR/9 and .365 xwOBA allowed. Even if his ERA estimators (4.46 xFIP, 4.19 SIERA) call for some regression, it’s clear that right now Sale is not the dominant pitcher we’re used to seeing. He is currently posting career worsts in K-BB%, soft contact % and hard contact % in addition to ERA and WHIP. His fastball velocity has dipped almost 3 MPH from last year, which helps explain why the pitch has the worst FB pitch value in the league so far in 2019. This afternoon he faces a Rays team that has been surprisingly good on offense to start the year. Yandy Diaz (.344 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Tommy Pham (.441), Daniel Robertson (.357), Avisail Garcia (.351) and Mike Zunino (.273) make up the top 5 batters for the Rays today in that order. Zunino has struggled vs. LHP but owns a .618 xwOBA over his last 10 days. Daniel Robertson once again stands out as the best value, hitting 3rd with a price of just $3.1k on Draftkings. The Rays have just a 3.64 implied total, but I think they are a good bet to top this number and will likely see low ownership across the industry.

With lots of high totals on the early slate, the Rays implied 4.18 total is actually the 5th lowest on the slate. Though they are facing a very good pitcher in David Price, the Rays move from pitcher-friendly Tropicana to a much more hitter-friendly Fenway Park, where the wind is blowing out at 15 MPH today. The Rays have the 5th best xwOBA over the last 10 days at .350 and have some good bats vs. LHP at the top of their order. Tommy Pham (.438 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Avisail Garcia (.358), Daniel Robertson (.353), Yandy Diaz (.323) are all solid options and can be had at reasonable prices, especially on Fanduel. Mike Zunino is batting 5th and has a whopping .680 xwOBA over the last 10 days. Tommy Pham has also been hot with a .465 xwOBA over the last 10 days. Daniel Robertson stands out as the best value, batting 3rd and costing just $2.3k on Fanduel.

The Rays have a moderate 4.45 implied run line, but are in a position to take advantage of a pitcher who struggles against RHBs (.361 wOBA since last season) and a terrible Detroit bullpen. The interesting bats are the middle of the order here: Daniel Robertson (124 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Wilson Ramos (119 wRC+, .165 ISO) and C.J. Cron (123 wRC+, .240 ISO), all above a 130 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. Matt Duffy (81 wRC+, .086 ISO) may have some value ahead of them against a pitcher who often has issues with the strike zone. The environment in Tampa Bay is not very friendly towards RH power, but it's not the worst and the cost isn't high.

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 4.67 implied run line that's on the top half of the board, but a bit below the top overall offenses tonight. Eric Skoglund has a board high .382 xwOBA and 50.5% 95+ mph EV this season. Further problematic for him in this matchup is that the majority of his pitches are fastballs (70% to LHBs, 55% to RHBs this season) and he's facing a lineup that has made significant improvements against that pitch this season (team 20.2 wFB is fifth in MLB). PlateIQ, which now has PlateIQ Ratings available to premium subscribers both on that page and in LineupHQ, suggests some strong individual ratings in this matchup. Wilson Ramos has a .412 wOBA against the pitch since 2016 and a 125 wRC+ (.191 ISO) against left-handed pitchers over the last calendar year. C.J. Cron (136 wRC+, .268 ISO) and Daniel Robertson (123 wRC+, .206 ISO) come in strong against southpaws. Cron exceeds a .400 Contact xwOBA against all fastballs and sinkers since 2016 according to PlateIQ as well. Should Skoglund get knocked out of this game early (lowest average innings pitched on the board since his debut), Tampa Bay additionally has the luxury of facing one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The KC bullpen is last in the majors in fWAR (-0.8), ERA, FIP (above five) and K-BB (5.7%) by a wide margin. Players will also need to stay up to date with Kevin's forecast, which suggests potential issues with this game, but strong hitting conditions if rain is not an issue.

Holland has posted some very poor stats against right-handers since 2016 (610 batters faced), including a 37.6% Hard% (worst on slate), 34.7% GB% (second-worst), 44.0% FB% (second-worst among pitchers with more than 14 TBF), 5.38 xFiP (worst among pitchers with more than 14 TBF), and a .352 wOBA (second-worst). The Rays will roll with six RHB tonight. One of the biggest concerns when going with this team is their K%. PlateIQ shows their current projected lineup has a 27.7% K% agaisnt LHP over the last two years, but Holland has a low 15.4% K% against RHB, which works in their favor. Holland is a sinker ball pitcher, tossing it 47.28% of the time and his second-favorite pitch is the slider (18.35%). Although none of the Rays' right-handers excel against sinkers - they're mostly average or a little below (Bourjos is the exception at 3.28% above average) - five guys are above average when it comes to sliders. Across the league, hitters accumulate 13.67% of their hits against sliders, but Souza (20.33%), Robertson (21.74%), Norris (16.67%) Bourjos (16.79%), and Longoria (13.96%) beat that rate. All of these guys have strong Hard% of at least 33.0% against LHP with Norris and Robertson both topping 44.0%. Plus, those two and Longoria have fly ball rates over 41.0%. Their left-handers aren't as appealing considering Holland's 19.3% Hard%, 52.3% GB%, .239 wOBA, .035 ISO, and 3.32 xFIP against RHB over the past two seasons (122 total batters faced). The five righties mentioned above are appealing options today and Vegas gives the team the fifth-highest projected run total on the main slate (4.79).