| Date | Opp | DKSAL | FDSAL | DKFPTS | FDFPTS | k | ip | ab | sho | w | hra | l | er | cg | ha | 3ba | bba | sba | ibba | whip | hbp | qstart | 1ba | k/9 | 2ba |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-25 | vs. BOS | -- | -- | -0.35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-03-20 | @ CIN | -- | -- | 11.3 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| 2024-03-12 | vs. CLE | -- | -- | -0.95 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| 2024-03-05 | @ SEA | -- | -- | 1.05 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-02-28 | vs. LAD | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-02-27 | @ ARI | -- | -- | 5.3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4.5 | 0 |
| 2024-02-23 | vs. KC | -- | -- | 1.05 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 |
Danny Duffy Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Lefty Finds Himself in New Territory in Great Spot
FanDuel has three pitchers exceeding the $10K price point, while DraftKings has none. In addition, Zack Wheeler is around $9.5K on either site. The easiest answer to every question is Gerrit Cole tonight. He has a 40.2 K%, 14.9 SwStr% and just a single estimator (DRA) above 2.10. The Rays are one of the highest upside matchups on the board. Five of nine projected batters exceed a 29 K% vs RHP since 2019. Cole also gets a park boost and a potentially favorable umpire. Cole is your top pitcher and everybody knows it.
Brandon Woodruff is your second most expensive pitcher and it’s fair enough. He has a 25.5 K-BB% just above his 24.9% mark last year after a season high 11 Ks against the Phillies last time out. He’s allowed just two HRs and three Barrels (3.2%), but that seems somewhat unsustainable with merely league average ground ball and exit velocity rates. He still has just a single estimators above three (3.16 DRA). The Cardinals have an 88 wRC+ vs RHP and offer three bats in the projected lineup above a 27 K% vs RHP since 2019 with two more above 23%. Woodruff is fine, but could become a strong leverage play depending on ownership projections, which update later this afternoon.
Danny Duffy is in rare territory, but has struck out 28% of the batters he’s faced with a 14.1 SwStr% this year and he’s done this behind a mile and a half per hour increase in velocity. His walk rate has improved a bit too (7%), but even with his batted ball (31.2 GB%) and contact profiles (89.2 mph EV) remaining similar, he’s improved most of his estimators to around three and half (a 4.71 DRA again dissents). The 88.1 LOB% and 4.9 HR/FB supporting his 1.26 ERA are unsustainable of course. While Duffy is the least accomplished of our high priced group, the Tigers have a 39 wRC+, 35.3 K% and 3.5 HR/FB vs LHP this year. Dare it be said, but Duffy may be a decent value, even at his accelerated price tag today.
Wheeler is throwing more sliders this year and the result is a 10 point drop in his ground ball rate to 45.7%, which is around his career rate, but also an increase in strikeouts above league average (26.8%, 12.1 SwStr%). His normally exceptional contact management continues (86.7 mph EV) with four of six Barrels (6%) leaving the yard. His worst estimators (again DRA) don’t take that into consideration and are still only three and a half. The Nationals are probably the least strikeout prone offense here with just three in the projected lineup above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019 and only one more above 20%, but they also have just an 83 wRC+. The thing that Wheeler does have over the higher priced pitchers today is his ability to work deep into games. He’s averaging nearly three full times through the order and almost seven innings per start this season. Potentially the lowest owned of the four, Wheeler is a fine leverage play and decent value here.
Mid-Range Arm in a High Upside Pitching Spot
Straight from Kevin’s forecast for Kansas City “Cold temps, winds blowing in from left at 10-15mph…”. Those with premium access to Weather Edge can see how unfavorable conditions are for bats here (although in a very small sample) in a park that generally suppresses power to begin with. While Josh Fleming is not much of a daily fantasy asset (17.9 K%, 9.2 SwStr% in 37.1 innings), he’s generated an 83.4 mph EV with 63.7% of his contact on the ground. Despite a projected lineup containing five batters above 115 wRC+ and six above a .200 ISO vs LHP since 2019, Kansas City bats may not have been that desirable in the first place, although the Tampa Bay bullpen has been banged up and closer Diego Castillo has pitched in back to back games.
Alternatively, RHBs have a .185 ISO (LHBs .166) against Danny Duffy since 2019 and six projected Rays are above a .190 ISO vs LHP over the same span. We may still want to consider an affordable Yandy Diaz (154 wRC+, .205 ISO) or Mike Brosseau (149 wRC+, .256 ISO) in the top half of the lineup tonight. However, Duffy is also in one of the highest upside spots on the board, as determined by opposing lineup strikeout rate. Potentially six batters above a 27 K% vs LHP since 2019! Duffy exhibited a velocity spike last time out that was his highest single game average since the middle of 2018. That increase, combined with 27% slider usage, enabled him to strike out six of 27 Angels. With a generally average strikeout and swinging strike rate, Duffy is a great secondary arm on DraftKings ($7K) in GPPs and even an alternative to higher priced arms on FanDuel ($8.3K).
Best Boom or Bust Pitcher on the Slate
It's a weird slate today for pretty much all sites, but pitching at the cheaper end really isn't great. Duffy has been a pretty good real life pitcher so far this year and an actual good DFS pitcher so far. He draws a very tough matchup against the team with the highest wOBA and wRC+ against LHP, but where there is power there is generally strikeouts and this is absolutely the case. The projected lineup for the White Sox has 4 bats in it with over a 25% K rate against LHP on the season and Duffy owns a 27.6% K rate against RHP so far this season. His price is more accounting for his downside that his upside, so he makes a great play in GPPs today.
Risk/Reward SP2
There is not a ton to leave in the realm of cheap pitchers tonight, but Duffy profiles as a reasonable risk/reward option in GPP formats. His advanced metrics look solid with a nice bump in his strikeouts and swinging strikes so far in 2020, as Duffy is striking out more than ten batters per nine innings. The White Sox are a dangerous, power-laden offense, particularly against lefties -- but there are also some strikeouts in this lineup. Duffy is the epitome of a risk/reward value, and I'll take some GPP shots on him given the short slate.
Tough Pricing Makes Him Playable
I’m not going to try to sell that Danny Duffy is an above average pitcher. I personally don’t think he is. This is some of the toughest pricing we’ve had all season on DraftKings, and we need some cheaper options. We have wind blowing in at Wrigley, and a Cubs lineup without Kris Bryant. It’s still a scary lineup, but there is enough upside to take the risk in this spot. They have six guys with strikeout rates over 20% against left-handed pitching since the start of 2019. They also have seven hitters with groundball rates over 50% against left-handed pitching in that same span. I don’t think Duffy is safe, but I think he’s worth the risk on a slate with tough pricing.
The Tigers may be better than you think against LHP
Danny Duffy gave up two runs on three hits while striking out in 4.1 innings. Duffy had just a 4.6 SwStr% with a full two mph drop in velocity (90.7 mph) from last year. Coming off a season with a 4.39 ERA, but estimators much higher (4.89 SIERA, 5.35 DRA) and a .342 xwOBA that’s highest on the board tonight, this could be the pitcher to attack on Wednesday night. Duffy had a .343 xwOBA vs RHBs last year and the Tigers are much stronger than you think against southpaws. The first four batters in the lineup tonight each had a wRC+ above 130 vs LHP last year. In addition, the Royals are projected to have one of the worst pens in the majors again.
Twins have mashed LHP this year, have 6.10 implied total vs. Duffy tonight
The Twins scored 11 runs last night and find themselves in another good spot tonight vs. Danny Duffy. Fortunately, with many other good stack options on the slate tonight, the Twins’ hitters don’t figure to see crazy ownership tonight despite an implied total that currently sits at 6.10. Danny Duffy has been pretty mediocre this year with a 4.42 ERA / 5.04 xFIP, 12.4% K-BB, 36% GB rate and 10% SwStr. Duffy has been a bit more vulnerable vs. RHB since 2018 (.347 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB, .322 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB) but can be targeted from both sides of the plate tonight. The Twins have really mashed LHP this year and have a number of enticing options in their lineup tonight: Mitch Garver (208 wRC+, .431 ISO vs. LHP this year), Nelson Cruz (175 wRC+, .440 ISO), CJ Cron (167 wRC+, .315 ISO), Miguel Sano (163 wRC+, .368 ISO), Jonathan Schoop (128 wRC+, .247 ISO), Max Kepler (108 wRC+, .231 ISO) and Marwin Gonzalez (100 wRC+, .180 ISO) are all great options tonight. Marwin Gonzalez is the best value in the bunch, batting 4th at just $3.4k on Draftkings. CJ Cron makes his return from the IL tonight and will bat 7th at just $3.7k. Mitch Garver is especially intriguing, he’ll cost $5.2k but is batting leadoff at a shallow catcher position and has destroyed LHP so far this year.
Matchup Over Skill
Danny Duffy is popping as one of the top point-per-dollar pitching options on the slate as he draws a favorable home matchup against the Detroit Tigers. The matchup is what draws the intrigue as Duffy has been less than impressive this season as the owner of a below average 18.9% strikeout rate and 5.12 SIERA. Detroit has struggled offensively this season so it's no surprise they own one of the worst wRC+ (82) in the league against southpaws to go along with the fifth highest strikeout rate (25.9%). I don't know if I have enough courage to roster Duffy in cash games when Robbie Ray is only $1,100 more expensive on DraftKings but using Duffy in tournaments is fine.
Danny Duffy (36.7 GB%, 89.1 mph aEV) could struggle with winds blowing out to left
Danny Duffy has worked 14.2 innings over his last two starts, striking out a season high eight Blue Jays in his most recent, despite allowing five HRs over that span. With just an 11.6 K-BB% this season, Duffy has survived by dropping his HR rate (12.9 HR/FB), though a 36.7 GB%, 42.8 Z-O-Swing% (second worst on the board), and 89.1 mph aEV make the sustainability of that HR suppression quite suspect. Should that rate falter, his estimators are around a half run higher than his 4.43 ERA, except for DRA (6.56), which really hates him. It’s safe to say that he may be tested today, not because of the Indians (82 wRC+, 13.4 HR/FB vs LHP), but due to the conditions in Kansas City. Kevin’s early forecast calls it hot and humid with winds blowing out to left. A power boost could give some Cleveland bats some extra value. Duffy has been HR prone to RHBs in the past and over the past 12 months batters from either side of the plate are within a point of a .335 xwOBA against him. Francisco Lindor (125 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Carlos Santana (142 wRC+, .177 ISO) are the more obvious names who have shown strength against LHP over the last calendar year, but more under the radar has been the proficiency of Jordan Luplow (155 wRC+, .336 ISO) and Roberto Perez (138 wRC+, .247 ISO). They are also the only four batters in the projected lineup above a .350 xwOBA over this span as well.
Lourdes Gurriel has scorched LHP (198 wRC+, .352 ISO last calendar year)
Danny Duffy has decline in just above every way (10.2 K-BB%, 43.4 Z-O-Swing%, 4.69 ERA, 4.53 SIERA, 5.64 DRA, 89.4 mph aEV, 8.5% Barrels/BBE, .362 xwOBA). His strikeout high for the season is seven, which he’s done just once, against the Tigers. Despite the Blue Jays owning just an 87 wRC+ with a 14.3 K-BB% and 12.6 HR/FB vs LHP, they are the interesting play here. In fact, only four teams outside Coors are implied for more runs (5.26). While Duffy is actually having more problems with LHBs this year (.377 wOBA), he’s traditionally been HR prone to RHBs. Lourdes Gurriel (198 wRC+, .352 ISO) has smoked LHP over the last calendar year, while Randal Grichuk (135 wRC+, .234 ISO) adds another potent bat. Vladimir Guerrero (90 wRC+, .155 ISO) has yet to show much prowess against southpaws, but costs just $3.4K on DraftKings.