David Hess Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Blue Jays have elected to place an opener in front of Edwin Jackson, but the Orioles are still inclined to get the beating right out of the way, sending David Hess out to start tonight. It’s been 10 starts since Hess last left a game where the opponents had fewer than three runs on the board and he’s allowed 20 HRs over those 10 starts. His 21.1 HR/FB is more than double his 9.9 K-BB%. His 45.6 Z-O-Swing% is second worst on the board tonight. A 7.08 ERA is not too far above a 6.90 FIP and even below his 8.93 DRA. His .394 xwOBA (91 mph aEV and 14% Barrels/BBE are both bottom 5% of the league) is exceeded only by Jackson and Mitch Keller, both above .400. Hess has been pummeled by batters from either side of the plate for at least a .340 wOBA and xwOBA with a fly ball rate below 40% over the last 12 months, giving us a lot to like in an affordable Toronto lineup tied with the Orioles at 5.25 runs, second most on the board. Cavan Biggio (73 wRC+, .120 ISO vs RHP) leads off. His numbers don’t look strong, but 62.5% of his contact against RHP has been hit hard. Justin Smoak (148 wRC+, .274 ISO), Rowdy Telles (109 wRC+, .234 ISO), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (110 wRC+, .192 ISO), Randal Grichuk (100 wRC+, .236 ISO), and Lourdes Gurriel (103 wRC+, 185 ISO) have all been formidable against RHP over the last calendar year.

The Giants haven’t been a good offense this year, but they are priced incredibly low for a nice matchup versus David Hess and they get a park upgrade going from Oracle to Camden Yards. Hess has a 6.71 ERA / 5.69 xFIP / 5.15 SIERA with a 52.8% FB rate, 11.1% K-BB and just an 8.4% SwStr. He also has a .404 xwOBA allowed, 16% barrel rate and 91.4% aEV, all among the worst in the league among starting pitchers. Brandon Belt (.376 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, $4k on DK), Pablo Sandoval (.373, $4.1k), Buster Posey (.363, $3.2k), Joe Panik (.334, $3.6k), Brandon Crawford (.320, $3.2k) and Evan Longoria (.318, $3.8k) are all great value options in the Giants’ order. Mike Yastrzemski (.257, $3.5k) will bat 2nd and had a 160 wRC+ in AAA this year before getting called up. The Orioles have a 5.6 implied line vs. Hess and will likely be very highly-owned on this slate in all formats given the bargain prices and high total.

David Hess has been horrific this year with a 6.75 ERA / 5.94 xFIP / 5.34 SIERA to go along with a 56% FB rate and just a 7.7% SwStr. Hess also has one of the worst xwOBAs in the league with a .408 mark, as well as a league worst 16.8% barrel rate (!) and 91.8 aEV. Hess’ only pitch with an xwOBA < .300 is his curve, which he has only thrown 5% of the time. His four seamer (53.5% usage, .447 xwOBA allowed) and his slider (25.2% usage, .354 xwOBA allowed) are his two main pitches and both get routinely hammered. Trevor Story (.358 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Nolan Arenado (.348), David Dahl (.344), Ian Desmond (.321) and Daniel Murphy (.276) are the best bats in the Rockies’ projected order today. Raimel Tapia (.252) projects to lead off and is a nice value at $4.8k given the matchup and environment. Brendan Rodgers (158 wRC+ in AAA this year) is a nice option at just $4.6k if he cracks the starting lineup. Rockies bats are a no-brainer play in the main slate today given the total, expect sky-high ownership.

David Hess has just a 7.0 SwStr%, 90.5 Z-Contact%, and 44.5 Z-O-Swing% with a 7.70 DRA, 5.30 SIERA matching his 5.34 ERA. Add all that to a ridiculous 15.5% Barrels/BBE and .402 xwOBA (.454 over the last month) that are worst on the board and it’s easy to figure out which pitcher players should attack tonight, although not much motivation was probably necessary to roster Boston bats. They did struggle last night, but John Means has been a rare bright spot in the Baltimore rotation. David Hess has had very different results. Boston is the second highest (5.58) of four offenses above five implied runs tonight. Boston bats are expensive, as always, but generally worth the price. Mookie Betts (166 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the top bat, J.D. Martinez (155 wRC+, .247 ISO) a few hundred cheaper, Andrew Benintendi (137 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (125 wRC+, .234 ISO) top half of the lineup compliments, but Rafael Devers (105 wRC+, .195 ISO) and Michael Chavis (196 wRC+, .317 ISO) have been doing some damage in the middle of the lineup as well. In fact, it’s tough to find an unusable bat in this projected lineup considering Jackie Bradley Jr.s price ($3.2K on DK, $2.3K on FD) and the current state of catching in the DFS realm. Facing a much more hittable pitcher, the Red Sox should bounce back nicely after being shut down last night.

David Hess continues to get lit up. He’s generated more HRs (6) than strikeouts (5) over his last three starts. Peripherals are atrocious and he has generated an ERA well above five despite a .224 BABIP. Just 20% of his contact has been on the ground with a 92.9 mph aEV. As such, 20% of his batted balls qualify as Barrels. Thought the White Sox do strike out (25.7%), this is not a pitcher who misses bats and the offense has been quite competent (102 wRC+, 19.4 HR/FB vs RHP). At 4.86 implied runs, the White Sox are fourth best on this board as a rare road favorite. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Most White Sox bats seem better deals on FanDuel, where you can get either Jose Abreu (99 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) or Yonder Alonso (104 wRC+, .184 ISO) below $3K, but Yoan Moncada (115 wRC+, .207 ISO) is the best bat in this lineup and playable at a higher price on either site out of the second spot in the lineup.

The Red Sox face David Hess at home Friday night and currently have an implied total of 6.12, highest on the board. Hess garnered some hype after his first start by showing increased velocity, but his pitch usage has remained virtually the same, and his stats so far (5.36 xFIP, 4.85 SIERA) suggest he’s still the same guy we want to target. Hess has nearly identical platoon splits in terms of xwOBA (.333 career xwOBA vs. LHB, .327 vs. RHB) but is more prone to HR vs. LHB with a 2.38 HR/9 compared to a 1.50 HR/9 vs. RHB. Though they’ve started slow, you’ll have to spend up for most of the Red Sox bats. J.D. Martinez (.513 xwOBA in 2019), Mitch Moreland (.452), Xander Bogaerts (.367) and Mookie Betts (.359) are middle of the order guys to build around. Benintendi (.304) hasn’t had the same success as last year but remains at the top of the order in the 2 spot. Eduardo Nunez (.176) and Jackie Bradley (.239) will be at the bottom of the order and can be had at a slight discount.

Only three teams are above five implied runs tonight and the Astros are essentially tied for the second spot at 5.3. They get a huge park upgrade in Baltimore and face David Hess (batters from either side above a .350 wOBA) with one of the worst bullpens in baseball behind him. Josh Reddick (81 wRC+, .113 ISO vs RHP) might have some value in this spot, as he bats second with George Springer still out. Top bats are Jose Altuve (142 wRC+, .144 ISO), Alex Bregman (156 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Tyler White (148 wRC+, .264 ISO).

The Astros have most of their key players in for a meaningless game with weather concerns in Baltimore. It is a sizable park upgrade against a pitcher allowing batters from either side of the plate a wOBA above .350 (David Hess), followed by one of the worst bullpens in the game. As a result, the Astros have a board high 5.28 implied run line that shouldn't really suffer much with Springer out of the lineup. Josh Reddick (81 wRC+, .113 ISO vs RHP) might have some value in this spot. Top bats are Jose Altuve (142 wRC+, .144 ISO), Alex Bregman (156 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Tyler White (148 wRC+, .264 ISO).

David Hess is coming off his best start of the season last time out (7 IP - 1 R - 0 BB - 7 K) against these Blue Jays. It was only the second time (13 starts) he’s gone beyond six innings and the first time he’s struck out more than four. He has the second lowest strikeout rate (14.9%) and worst Barrels/BBE (9.4%) on the board. Consider the .339 or better wOBA and xwOBA to batters from either side and consider a Baltimore bullpen with a FIP above six (6.3 K-BB%) over the last month. Also realize that this is the most positive run environment on the board tonight and Toronto bats seem to deserve at least their 5.03 implied run line with Hess and friends very unlikely to repeat his previous effort. Of course, Kendrys Morales (126 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is enjoying a career week (HRs in seven straight games). His price is up to $5K on DraftKings now. Ironic that Justin Smoak (125 wRC+, .232 ISO) is the much cheaper alternative now. Billy McKinney (257 wRC+, .440 ISO) is a small sample superstar, but should have some value batting second in this spot ($3.9K DK/$2.8K FD). Curtis Granderson (108 wRC+, .187 ISO) and Randal Grichuk (113 wRC+, .278 ISO) are reasonable as part of a top five stack as well, though Grandy's $4.7K price on DraftKings may slightly over-state his production.