David Ortiz Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Josh Tomlin had the lowest walk rate in baseball (2.8%) by almost a full point. That allowed him a 13.5 K-BB% with just a 16.3 K%. He was also one of just three pitchers to allow more than 35 HRs this year. The other two were Jered Weaver and James Shields. Perhaps he’s better off in Boston, a park that suppresses LH power more than most people realize and more than Cleveland. RHBs do have a wOBA 30 points higher for his career though, while his 119 HRs allowed have been split almost dead evenly. The split was more pronounced this year (RHBs .356 wOBA and 22 of his 36 HRs, LHBs .287 wOBA) however. David Ortiz (173 wRC+, .350 ISO vs RHP) has homered three times off Tomlin in 18 PAs, his only three hits against him. It's an interesting dilemma between he and the RH Hanley Ramirez (110 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP) at First Base. Jackie Bradley (134 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP) is the only other batter in the lineup with a HR against Tomlin. He drops to ninth today because Andrew Benintendi (160 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP) deserves to bump up to seventh. Boston is projected for a slate high 5.3 runs, a full run more than the next highest team (Cleveland). Tomlin may get a longer leash with his team owning a two game lead in the series.

A bit of a surprise in the Boston lineup has Brock Holt (101 wRC+, .147 ISO vs RHP) batting second tonight against Trevor Bauer. Bauer is the lowest priced pitcher on the board facing the top offense in baseball (113 wRC+, 34.2 Hard% vs RHP). Projected for 4.6 runs, just behind Texas, the Boston offense should be popular toinght, but Holt now offers a way to save some without sacrificing much. He could be especially useful on FanDuel where it's more difficult to afford one of the more two more expensive pitchers along with any middle of the order bats. Bauer had some strange splits this season. He held LHBs to just a .299 wOBA with a 17.5 K-BB%, while RHBs had a .320 wOBA with a 7.2 K-BB%, but a ground ball rate over 15 points higher (55.8% to 39.9% vs LHBs). David Ortiz (173 wRC+, .350 ISO vs RHP) and Mookie Betts (141 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP) are top bats for those who can fit them in lineups. Andrew Benintendi (160 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP) might be a lower part of the order salary saver.

We have a relatively small sample size on Bryan Mitchell, but he looks to be a low strikeout, ground ball pitcher to right-handed batters (52.9%), and a higher strikeout, but lower ground ball pitcher to left-handed batters (45.0%). We'll be looking for home runs from David Ortiz (178 wRC+, .442 wOBA, .359 ISO vs RHP) and Jackie Bradley (137 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .268 ISO vs RHP) tonight, with Ortiz being a top cash game and tournament option with his elite skills against right-handed pitching in general. We should reserve the right-handed Boston bats for a tournament stack, though of course Mookie Betts (142 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .209 ISO vs RHP) is nearly always in play anytime, anywhere. We'd definitely prefer to focus on the lefties as one offs. Andrew Benintendi (176 wRC+, .440 wOBA, .261 ISO vs RHP) is still too cheap on DraftKings, but is relegated to tournament-only use given his spot in the batting order.

Luis Cessa struck out just one of 20 Red Sox in his lone start against them and he's struck out just 16.9% of batters over his seven starts, while LHBs have a 39.7 Hard% against him this year. That's certainly going to be a problem in Yankee Stadium and it might make David Ortiz (181 wRC+, .363 ISO vs RHP this season) the top overall bat tonight. This Boston lineup is projected to score five runs, though the high price tags often make it difficult to discern value unless we're looking at someone as overwhelmingly potent as Ortiz. One consideration for GPP players might be Andrew Benintendi (169 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP) costing about $3K on either site.

Reason #1: David Ortiz is locked in at the plate right now, striking out only 18% of the time over the last 7 days and putting the ball in play via hard contact in 50% of at-bats that have ended in contact. Reason #2: Matt Andriese has been the quintessential "league-average" pitcher this year, possessing a 4.07 xFIP against lefties, a 20% strikeout rate, and a 34% hard contact allowed percentage. Andriese has had respectable outings, but he has proven over time that he will not be too tough of a matchup for a hitter like David Ortiz. Reason #3: David Ortiz absolutely owns right-handed pitchers and owns the best wRC+ against RHP in the league amongst qualified hitters, holding an unbelievable 182 wRC+ this year versus righties.

Chris Archer has gotten blow up for 17 runs in 21.2 innings over four starts against Boston, striking out 24 of 100 batters, but only one of those starts has come since the end of June. Since the All-Star break, he has an ERA with estimators around or below three with a 25.2 K-BB%. His walk rate has been cut in half, from 10% to 5%. It's a difficult spot (Boston 107 wRC+ on the road, 116 wRC+ vs RHP, 119 wRC+ last seven days), but at least he has them at home. Archer may be the highest upside pitcher tonight and although he's the highest priced pitcher on FanDuel, he's still below $10K with five pitchers more expensive on DraftKings. With the risk involved and several reasonable options in his price range in safer spots, it's possible Archer may go under-owned tonight. Check our Projected Ownership page when it updates later on this afternoon. While David Ortiz (182 wRC+, .365 ISO vs RHP this season) has three HRs off Archer in 42 PAs and grades strongly overall, there's not much interest in costly Boston bats projected for just 3.8 runs on the road tonight.

Chris Tillman has a 3.72 ERA with estimators closer to four and a half, but with a career .277 BABIP that he's nearly matching this year, the truth is probably somewhere in between. He has the worst matchup on the board at home tonight though, as the Red Sox (106 wRC+ on the road, 116 wRC+ vs RHP, 120 wRC+ over the last week) come to visit. However, the Sox are "only" projected for 4.5 runs with have not exactly hit Tillman for much power. David Ortiz (182 wRC+, .365 ISO vs RHP this season) is the only batter with a HR against him (just one in 41 PAs). No batter even has more than three extra-base hits. RHBs have actually hit him a bit better (.335 wOBA since last season), though Ortiz still tops sits among the top overall bats tonight with a .247 wRC+ and 61.1 Hard% over the last week. An interesting GPP play might be ninth place hitter Andrew Benintendi (172 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP) for just $3.1K on either site. Other Boston bats like Betts (141 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP this season) and Ramirez (288 wRC+, 63.6 Hard% over the last week) project well, but perhaps not much beyond their high price tags here