David Peterson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Opening LineupHQ and filtering the pitchers on tonight’s eight game slate by P/$, you have to go six pitchers deep on DraftKings and to the latter half of the board on FanDuel before finding a pitcher costing $9K or more. It seems like this may be a great slate to embrace more risk and pay down for pitching. The top projected value on either site by a pretty decent margin is David Peterson, who has a 27.6 K% and 51.2 GB%, but has trouble finding the plate (10.1 BB%). These control issues have limited him to just one six inning start over his last eight. A 3.99 xERA is his only estimator more than a quarter of a run removed from a 3.47 ERA. However, he has a high upside matchup (Cubs 95 wRC+, 23.7 K% vs LHP) in a great home park with some cooler, more pitcher friendly weather expected. Peterson has the potential to hurt himself, but also to throw a gem against a high strikeout, low walk projected lineup via PlateIQ. In fact, Peterson projects very similarly to Corbin Burnes overall.

Following Peterson’s value projection on FanDuel may be a number of pitchers you’re not considering using on a single pitcher site (Patrick Corbin against the O’s, Michael Grove in Arizona, Drew Smyly against the Mets and Brayan Bello facing the Yankees) until you get to another pair of $8K arms in Dane Dunning and Sonny Gray. Dunning has a 16.6 K% with a 6.3 K-BB% over his last 16 starts. Considering that this is now the majority of his season, he’s up to a 4.39 ERA that’s within a quarter run of all estimators. He’s completed six innings just three times since the start of July and has allowed 11 barrels (12.3%) over his last five starts. This is certainly a concern and Texas has begun opening the roof with the weather cooling off, which generally means a more positive run environment in that park. However, the A’s have just an 83 wRC+ and 23.7 K% vs RHP. Dunning is the second best projected DraftKings value for exactly $7K.

Gray has just eight Quality Starts this year, but three of them have come in his last five outings with his strikeout rate jumping to 27.1% over that span as well. He may have just an average ground ball rate for the first time in his career, but with a healthy 23.9 K%, 18.0 IFFB% and 5.0% Barrels/BBE, estimators still range from a 3.43 FIP to a 3.78 SIERA. Aside from workload concerns decreasing recently, the matchup is strong (Royals 88 wRC+, 22.3 K% and 8.5 HR/FB vs RHP, 49 wRC+ and 2.1 HR/FB last seven days). A few hundred dollars cheaper on DraftKings, Gray projects as the fifth best value and seems like a strong pivot from higher priced arms.

One last standalone pitcher who may be more interesting than his middling projection on a small slate, Ross Stripling has a 27 K% (13.6 SwStr%) over his last five starts, all Quality Starts. With elite control (4.2 BB%), he’s up to a 17.6 K-BB% with non-FIP estimators ranging tightly from a 3.44 xERA to a 3.61 SIERA. With just 10 of 26 barrels (7.9%) leaving the yard, his 3.03 ERA aligns well with a 3.09 FIP. The Rays offer some upside with a 102 wRC+, but 23.8 K% vs RHP. As with most domes, the run environment in Toronto increases with the roof open, so be sure to search Twitter for that information later.

Bello has struck out 21 of 84 batters with a 14.2 SwStr% and half his contact on the ground in his most recent stint with the big league club, though he’s also walked nine. He is a well-regarded prospect (50 Future Value grade) with both a lot of strikeouts (33.8%) and walks (10%) at AAA this year. The park and weather are terrible for pitching tonight and the Yankees have a 113 wRC+ vs RHP and 131 wRC+ over the last week, but he could be interesting for just $6.6K in an SP2 spot, if he can get around Judge.

Cutting to the chase, the third best projecting pitcher tonight costs less than $8.5K on either site. David Peterson has impressively struck out 27.3% of batters with 51.1% of his contact on the ground. His one remaining issue is a 10.5 BB%, a big part of the reason he’s completed six innings just 25% of his starts. Five of his 37 runs have been unearned, so his ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.36 xFIP to a 3.99 xERA. He’s facing a below average, but contact prone offense (92 wRC+, 20.2 K%, 8.8 HR/FB vs LHP) in a great run prevention spot in a negative run environment with a pitcher friendly forecast (Weather Edge). Peterson is the top projecting FanDuel value, where he costs $300 less than DraftKings (second best projected value), despite the struggle to get through six innings.

Also projecting as the third best value on either site for $8.5K or less, Nick Pivetta’s 22.8 K% and 14.2 K-BB% are still slightly above average, but he’s completed six innings in just two of his last 10 starts. His 4.40 ERA is only barely above estimators ranging from a 3.96 DRA to a 4.30 xERA. He, too, has a favorable matchup (Rangers 96 wRC+, 23.7 K% vs RHP), but they are one of the hottest offenses in the league (131 wRC+, 20.7 K%, 21.1 HR/FB last seven days) in one of the more positive run environments in the league. However, the forecast may also lean pitcher friendly here too.

One more sub-$8.5K pitcher we may consider using on a single pitcher site, Lance McCullers projects as the fourth best FanDuel value, but does have some concerns. He has struck out just 13 of 67 batters with a 9.2 SwStr% and 10 walks. Even his 51.2 GB% is quite a bit below his career average (55.4%). His velocity has been down and dropping. Needless to say, a 1.69 ERA is a fluke with all estimators above four. If playing him, it’s because of his matchup with the Angels (94 wRC+, 26.7 K% vs RHP.

Domingo German and Alex Cobb project as strong SP2 DK values for less than $8K. German now has three Quality Starts in his last four outings, while six of his nine walks occurred over his first three starts, but his 17.8 K% isn’t gaining any steam. He’s not handing out free passes though (5.2 BB%) and he’s generated more popups (12) than barrels (nine). That said, he doesn’t have an estimator below four and all non-FIP estimators are more than a run above his 3.19 ERA (79.5 LOB%). A park upgrade with a matchup against the Rays (104 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs RHP) should help his upside, but this start could be problematic for him in that he’s gone to his curveball (0 RV, 33 Whiff%, .300 wOBA and xwOBA) more than any other pitch (35.6%) and the Rays are the best offense in baseball against that particular pitch (0.97 wCB/C). They are also one of the hottest offenses in the league (144 wRC+ last seven days is tops in MLB).

A 24.5 K%, 17.5 K-BB%, 61.2 GB%, 29.7 Z-O-Swing%, 4.1% Barrels/BBE and estimators ranging from a 2.84 xFIP to a 3.15 DRA all suggest that Alex Cobb is an All-Star. The only number that doesn’t is a 3.81 ERA and even that is down to 2.84 over his last 14 starts with seven of his last 10 being Quality Starts. He doesn’t have a great matchup against the Phillies (100 wRC+, 22.4 K% vs RHP), now at full strength, but is simply undervalued for the underlying production.

Jeffrey Springs only rarely hits the 90 pitch mark, but has been one of the more impressive pitchers in the league on a pitch by pitch basis. He’s struck out 27% of batters faced with just a 5.6 BB% and has allowed just 6.6% Barrels/BBE on an 87 mph EV. The 81.9 LOB% probably ends up regressing some, explain the difference between his 2.76 ERA and estimators ranging from a 3.13 xFIP to a 3.48 xERA. While he does face the mighty Yankees (124 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 10.1 BB%, 18.0 HR/FB vs LHP), he does so costing just $7.3K in a negative run environment, while the Yankees have just a 58 wRC+ over the last week.

Lastly, one of the cheapest pitchers on the board, Davis Martin has just a 16.9 K% (8.5 K-BB%) with a 4.62 ERA nearly matching a 4.64 SIERA with all estimators within one-third of a run, but he also has a 12.8 SwStr% and 30%+ strikeout rate at both AA and AAA this season. There are still some possibilities here, even in a tough spot against the Twins (113 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP).

Highest upside spots on the board go to Aaron Civale (in Seattle), David Peterson (in Tampa Bay), German Marquez (vs Reds), Jake Arrieta (in Detroit), Joe Musgrove (vs Cardinals), Wade Miley (at Coors) and Zack Greinke (vs Rangers). Civale, Arrieta, Greinke and Miley all have strikeout rates below 21%. In addition, while still offering a lot of strikeouts, the Rangers have a 104 wRC+ vs RHP this year and the Rockies aren’t as bad against LHP (94 wRC+). Miley has not had his price tag jacked up at Coors after a no-hitter though and Greinke is just $7.5K on FanDuel. Arrieta received some comeuppance last time out in Cincinnati, when he surrendered three of his five season HRs. The 20.7 K% and 8 SwStr% are actually his best since 2017, but the 30.4 GB% is a career low by more than six points. On top of that, the velocity is lower than it’s ever been and the contact is harder (90.5 mph), yet he’s just trying to sinker his way through. The 4.31 ERA is still below all of his estimators. For just $6.4K on DraftKings though, he’s not the worst pairing with a high priced arm. The Cincinnati lineup projects six batters with at least a 24.5 K% vs RHP since 2019 and Marquez costs just $5.6K on DraftKings.

That leaves us with Pederson and Musgrove. The latter is potentially the top value on the board for less than $9K, but it’s no secret. Musgrove has allowed 10 runs (three HRs) over his last 10 innings, but still has a 30.3 K-BB% with a very average contact profile and almost half of that contact (48.3%) on the ground. Estimators including elements of his contact profile, like FIP and xERA are a bit above his 3.00 ERA, while the remainder are below. The Cardinals have an 86 wRC+ vs RHP and four of eight projected batters exceed a 28 K% vs RHP since 2019.

Peterson may be the most interesting pitcher on the board. A likely regression candidate after a .233 BABIP last season, his ERA has increased over two runs. However, his strikeout rate has increased over nine points (28.6%, 12.1 SwStr%), along with a 10 point increase in his ground ball rate (54.5%), but five of his seven Barrels (10.4%) have left the yard, which represents one-third of his fly balls, as his BABIP has risen 90 points. He’s stranded just 61.3% of runners. Better pitcher, worse results. Peterson costs just $6.6K on FanDuel, but isn’t likely to give you six innings. He’s less than $1K more where a partnership with Musgrove could be interesting.