David Phelps Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

David Phelps has struck out 26 of 80 batters since moving into the rotation, including 17 of his last 41. with a SwStr above 11% in each of his last two starts. While his velocity has dropped as expected moving from the pen to the rotation, it’s still up a couple of notches from previous seasons. He’s gone a bit deeper in each start and finished with 96 pitches last time out, so there should be no pitch limit concerns and he's in a great spot against one of the worst offenses in baseball. They may be a bit better against RHP at this point, but strike out a quarter of the time against them and on the road with a strikeout rate above 30% over the last week. This version of Phelps may even be viable for $8.7K on DraftKings, but is perhaps one of the top plays on FanDuel for much less ($7K). The Padres have tonight's lowest run projection (3.1). Our Projected Ownership page currently has him as the second most popular pitcher behind Verlander there. For the Padres, Ryan Schimpf (150 wRC+, .357 ISO vs RHP) continues to pound the ball (198 wRC+, 53.8 Hard% over the last week) for $3.6K or below on either site, while Alex Dickerson (120 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is cheap enough ($3.1K or less) to deserve some consideration also.

Michael Phelps is not the only Phelps having a good August, considering David Phelps has an August xFIP of 3.11. David has had success missing bats, holding an August k % of 29%, and when he is allowing contact, he has been able to suppress hard contact, giving up a respectable 25% hard contact. Phelps has been much tougher on RHBs, holding an xFIP of 2.38 and a k % of 37%, compared to an xFIP of 4.50 and a k% of 24% versus LHBs. His k% is likely to drop versus both sides of the plate, but he still has been impressive versus RHBs and will be facing RHBs 75% of the time today.

David Phelps has 30.2% strikeout rate on the season. While that looks and sounds great, it's almost guaranteed we will continue to see that percentage decline due to an average 9.4% SwStr%. Phelps' strikeout rate is inflated primarily because he had the benefit of pitching out of the Marlins bullpen for most of the season. The strikeout numbers may not necessarily be real for Phelps, but the dip in hard contact allowed may be (25.5%), considering he surrendered a 34.2% Hard% in the 2015 season. The way Phelps has been avoiding hard contact, it's tough to really recommend attacking him with Reds bats, outside of maybe Joey Votto (162 wRC+, .419 wOBA, .236 ISO vs RHP), who is an elite hitter and be considered in nearly any matchup if price allows.

Jeff Samardzija and the San Francisco Giants visit the Miami Marlins who will have David Phelps taking the mound for them today. Vegas has given the game a modest 7.5 run total so they expect the game to be relatively low scoring. Samardzija started off hot but has cooled down and should be avoided, even given the low run projection. He has a 5.43 SIERA and 13.5% K rate over the last month and the Marlins are fairly tough against RHP. Phelps in the meantime will be limited in terms of pitch count but did look strong in his first start of the season. At his price point he could be worth a flyer, even in a somewhat tough match up against the Giants. Eduardo Nunez leads off today and is intriguing at the top of the order. Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and Buster Posey are also secondary options. Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon are the top plays from the Marlins with Derek Dietrich also worthy of consideration.

David Phelps is a failed starter who has pitched extremely well out of the bullpen, but don't expect his 31.5 K% to transition to the rotation and 2.2 innings in his last appearance was the first time he'd gone multiple innings since the first week of the season. This will likely be a bullpen game and the Rockies are projected for the second highest run total tonight (5.4 runs). Carlos Gonzalez (145 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is back in the lineup and the top bat in a strong lineup, while David Dahl (168 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP) has been tearing the cover off the ball. They may only get two opportunities against the starter and face platoon adjustments the rest of the way, but players are probably not going wrong by squeezing high priced Colorado bats into their lineups, especially at the top or middle of the order.