David Ross Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Matt Moore finished the season with 15.2 innings of two run ball in which he struck out 17 of 57 batters and, perhaps most importantly, walked just two batters. However, those starts were against the Dodgers and Rockies, two of the worst offense against LHP in baseball and followed another outing against the Dodgers in which he allowed six runs in one inning. A cool AT&T Park is also in his favor tonight, one of the most pitcher friendly environments in baseball, even if it did not suppress the long fly balls and run scoring last night. Factors against him include the best offense in baseball vs LHP (116 wRC+, 10.5 BB%, 14.9 HR/FB) and his 11.1 BB% since being traded to the Giants. His walk rate has been under 9% in just four of his 12 starts. If Moore struggles to throw strikes here, it could be a very quick evening for him with all hands on deck in the bullpen. Unfortunate omissions from the Chicago lineup are Contreras and Soler, but the top four in the lineup (including Rizzo) all have a wRC+ above 120 against LHP this season with only Zobrist (.154) having an ISO below .185. Bryant is probably the overall chalk bat tonight, pulverizing LHP (176 wRC+, .327 ISO), but Russell (113 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Ross (148 wRC+, .245 ISO) are interesting pivots off Dodger bats at their position as well, both showing surprising power against LHP this year.

Johnny Cueto could be the odd man out on a slate that features many high upside pitchers and a couple in stronger spots. Though he did have a much higher 14.3 HR/FB on the road, perhaps he shouldn't be overlooked at a reasonable cost below $10K on either site. The Cubs are an above average offense (103 wRC+ vs RHP), but struck out 21.5% of the time vs RHP and owe much of their success to patience (10.3 BB% vs RHP) with just a league average 12.6 HR/FB against righties. While Kevin noted significant wind gusts up to 20 mph in his forecast, those winds will be blowing across the field and neither in or out. For the Cubs, there are no major surprised with David Ross the regular Catcher for Lester, but his bat does offer a small upgrade for Cueto. Electing to go with Baez (82 wRC+, .144 ISO vs RHP) puts Zobrist (123 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP) in LF and could add a strikeout to Cueto's total, though Baez has really cut down on whiffs this season (26.4% vs RHP). Cueto did not show a particular weakness or strength to batters from either side of the plate over another this year. Both Rizzo (154 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP) and Bryant (139 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP) have obvious HR upside.

The Cubs have the top projected run total (5.32) outside of Colorado and are the only other team even above five runs. RHBs have a .343 wOBA against John Lamb in his short career with LHBs hitting him even harder (.409 wOBA, 34.3 Hard%). The entire lineup is playable, right down to the punt Catcher batting 8th (212 wRC+, .382 ISO vs RHP for David Ross this season). Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .199 ISO vs LHP since 2015) might be the top bat in a same handed matchup, though Kris Bryant (130 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP career), who had a monstrous night last night, will challenge for that. Both are bats that should be worth paying up for. Javier Baez (178 wRC+, .219 ISO vs LHP career) is a lower cost value play, especially on FanDuel ($2.9K).

Adam Morgan does have a 10.6 SwStr%, but it hasn't translated to as many strikeouts as he had in AAA this year (20 of 75 batters) with just a 15.0 K% this season and even worse over the last month. He doesn't walk a lot of batters (6.3 BB%), which is good when facing the patient Cubs, but he does allow a lot of hard contact in the air (36.3 Hard%, 0.9 GB/FB), which is going to be a problem in this park against this lineup, even minus Ben Zobrist. One issue that might keep the ownership numbers of this lineup at bay is their high cost. Fowler, Bryant, and Rizzo all cost $3.9K or more on FD and at least $5K on DraftKings. They all hit LH pitching at a well above average rate with power (Fowler's .155 ISO vs LHP since 2015 is the lowest of the three). Without many high priced arms though, players may lean towards higher exposure to these bats and opt for cheaper pitchers with some upside, of which there are a few tonight. The most interesting bat in this lineup might Javier Baez (219 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP since 2015). With Morgan's low strikeout rate potentially increasing Baez's upside, he has the potential to generate value far beyond his price tag ($3.5K on DK, $2.6K on FD). Players should get as much exposure to this lineup as they can afford with even David Ross pounding LHPs this year (208 wRC+, .292 ISO) in a limited sample, but a low cost. Bryant (103 mph aEV in 4 batted balls), Soler, and Ross have all homered against Morgan in just a combined 12 PAs.

The Cubs announced that Miguel Montero has been placed on the DL, backdated to Monday. David Ross will likely become the every day catcher for the Cubs in the meantime.