Dereck Rodriguez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Dereck Rodriguez is in a nice spot tonight, pitching in spacious AT&T Park vs. the Reds. The Reds have just a 72 wRC+ vs. RHP (2nd worst in the league) and a 24.3% K rate. They have also been cold of late with a .310 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Dereck Rodriguez isn’t a super talented pitcher, but he’s been serviceable at the very least with a 3.50 ERA and 4.62 xFIP in his young career. It doesn’t hurt that Rodriguez has been much better at home (.290 xwOBA allowed, 3.22 ERA) versus away (.350 xwOBA allowed, 3.88 ERA) in his career. At just $6.3k on Draftkings and $6.4k on Fanduel, Rodriguez doesn’t need to do anything crazy to hit value on either site. He lacks K upside (18% K rate for his career) but projects to eat innings and prevent runs tonight in a good spot. The Reds have just a 3.76 implied line vs. Rodriguez and the Giants Friday night.

I wrote up the Reds yesterday as a team that has started slow and under-performed expectations, but should still score some runs in a good matchup, especially with Nick Senzel getting called up. Their hitters are available at a discount now given the early season struggles, and it seems that many of them are snapping out of the early season slumps. After getting to Tyler Beede last night they’ll face Dereck Rodriguez tonight, who has a 3.13 ERA in 149 career innings but has been greatly aided by making half his starts in AT&T Park. A closer look at his numbers reveals a 4.51 xFIP, 4.57 SIERA and 40% hard contact rate for his career. Rodriguez has a slightly higher xwOBA vs. LHB, but I’d feel comfortable targeting him with hitters from either side of the plate. Joey Votto (.397 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Jesse Winker (.382), Yasiel Puig (.348), Eugenio Suarez (.346) and Nick Senzel (149 wRC+ in AAA in 2018) are all great options tonight. Al Reds’ hitters are available for $3.5k or less on Fanduel and $4.3k or less on Draftkings. Winker has been their hottest hitter with a .403 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Joey Votto has a .351 xwOBA over the past 10 days despite his recent struggles and should be played with confidence given his leadoff spot in the order and track record of success. The Reds have a 4.43 implied line vs. Rodriguez and the Giants Saturday night.

If not interested in or unable to afford the top priced pitchers tonight, players should probably be considering all four pitchers in tonight's two west coast affairs. Mike Minor (20.8 K%, 4.21 SIERA, .344 xwOBA) probably won't be able to sustain his 30 K% over the last month with a 9.2 SwStr% behind it and facing an offense with a 20.9 K% vs LHP, but he gets a significant park upgrade in L.A. and the Angels have just an 86 wRC+ against southpaws this year. His opponent, Jaime Barria (18.7 K%, 4.55 SIERA, .337 xwOBA) has allowed one run or less in five of his last six starts, but has only completed six innings once over that span, He has a 22.7 K% and 300 xwOBA last 30 days. The Rangers have an 84 wRC+ on the road and 24.5 K% vs RHP. Sean Newcomb (22.1 K%, 4.65 SIERA, .314 xwOBA) has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts, not completing even five innings in three of those starts, but he's in San Francisco, facing a Giants' offense with an 82 wRC+ and 15.1 K-BB% vs LHP for the season and is now without most of their RH power. Dereck Rodriguez (19.9 K%, 4.28 SIERA, .305 xwOBA) is facing a contact prone offense (20.4 K% vs RHP), but not in a particularly dangerous one (95 wRC+, 11.6 HR/FB vs RHP) in a great park. He's gone at least six innings in 12 of 15 starts.

The Rockies are just one of two teams above five implied runs and are highest on the board at 5.52 at home against Dereck Rodriguez. He's been good with the advantage of pitching many games in San Francisco. He gets the unkindest of park shifts tonight and while xwOBA agrees with his sub-.300 wOBA against RHBs, it does bring him up to .323 against LHBs with a 45 Hard%. That's still only league average, but enough to pounce on at Coors with the likes of Charlie Blackmon (113 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP), Carlos Gonzalez (113 wRC+, .208 ISO) and David Dahl (122 wRC+, .248 ISO). Few probably realize that Trevor Story (107 wRC+, .221 ISO) has been the better hitter than Nolan Arenado (95 wRC+, .191 ISO) vs RHP this year.

One pitcher exceeds the $10K price point on both sites and two more are at least $9.5K on both sites. All three are probably overpriced. Mike Foltynewicz is the most expensive pitcher on the board and maybe even the top pitcher considering the spot he is in (Miami 80 wRC+ at home, 84 wRC+ vs RHP) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. He has allowed one run over 15 innings, striking out 16 of his last 54 batters, but league average 10.3 SwStr% calls into question his 28.2 K%. He's a nice pitcher in a great spot, but rarely one players should be comfortable paying $10.5K or more for. He may still be the most usable of the high priced arms tonight. Mike Clevinger is in a great run prevention spot, but has a marginally above average strikeout rate (24%), which is actually the third highest rate on this board. The Royals have just a 20.2 K% vs RHP, but with a 9.5 HR/FB against them as well in a power suppressing park, though Kevin's early forecast points out the better than standard hitting conditions in Kansas City tonight. He may still be able to continue suppressing his own HR rate (8.9 HR/FB) against a weak lineup. It’s still not really a $10K profile though. Dereck Rodriguez has gone seven innings in three straight starts and gets the Rangers with their 24.8 K% vs RHP minus a DH in one of the most power suppressing run environments in baseball. However, he has missed two weeks with a hamstring issue. His board leading 2.6% Barrels/BBE is a bit of a fluke considering the 88.5 mph aEV and 40.4 GB%. He does have the third best xwOBA on the board (.300) with just a 20.3 K%. DraftKings is asking $10.1 K for him tonight.

There are no...pitchers above $10K on either site, 25% strikeout rates, or offenses below 3.6 implied runs tonight. Tonight's pitching options are difficult at best. The top five strikeout rates on the board are Rich Hill (25.8%), Trevor Cahill (24.3%), Anibal Sanchez (24.2%), Kyle Gibson (23.6%) and Nick Kingham (22.7%). Hill has workload issues and is facing the Braves (116 wRC+, 19.7 K% vs LHP), but should probably still be considered for $9K on this slate. Cahill is facing an offense with a 25.3 K% vs RHP, but does so in Texas. Sanchez gets the Dodgers (111 wRC+ vs RHP), Gibson has the Red Sox at Fenway and Kingham hosts the Mets (92 wRC+, 21.9 K% vs RHP). He's gone at least six innings in four of his last five starts, allowing seven HRs over that span though. Never the less, he may be an answer as the second most expensive pitcher on either site. The other thing to consider is that there are just two extremely negative run environments on the board in Miami and San Francisco. The first pits Tommy Milone against Dan Straily. Straily has just a 17 K% over the last month, but has gone at least six innings in five straight and has a .273 xwOBA over the last 30 days that's 100 points below his season average. The Washington lineup is dangerous, but he gets to face them in a power suppressing park for $7K or less. Milone is interesting because of a 19.9 K-BB% in 20 AAA starts this year, but he has just a 10.8% mark over 736 major league innings and has never reached a 20 K% in any season. He's not available on FanDuel. San Francisco looks like the destination for daily fantasy pitching tonight. Derek Rodriguez (18.9 K%, 4.25 SIERA, .306 xwOBA). He's completed six innings in six of eight starts and the Brewers should supply some upside (25.3 K%), while their power (16.3 HR/FB vs RHP) should be tempered by the park. Wade Miley (14.7 K%, 5.55 SIERA, .317 xwOBA) is much less exciting, but doesn't allow too much hard contact and keeps the ball on the ground (56.9%).