Derek Holland Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

I wrote up Derek Holland before his last start as a guy who made legit changes about half-way through 2018 and has seen much better results since, yet still carries a discounted price. His new release point and pitch selection has helped him increase his strikeout rate and peripherals, especially vs. RHB where he’s largely struggled throughout his career. Holland still carries a discounted price, especially on Draftkings where his price actually decreased from his last start. Holland gets a solid matchup today vs. a weak-hitting Pirates team in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. The Pirates rank dead last in the league with a 50 wRC+ vs. LHP and a 2nd worst 29.9% K rate. Their projected lineup contains just one batter (Francisco Cervelli) who had an xwOBA vs. LHP greater than .310 in 2018. The Pirates have just a 3.77 implied total vs. Holland and the Giants this afternoon.

Derek Holland made changes to his release point and pitch selection in the midst of 2018 and saw better results across the board with a 2.87 ERA, 3.39 FIP and 25% K rate in his last 19 starts of the year. In particular, he saw much better results vs. RHB (.298 xwOBA in 2nd half) despite struggling in that area before (.406 xwOBA vs. RHB in 2017). Holland has had a great start to 2019 with an 11.81 K/9 and 3.85 SIERA, and remains at a nice price of $6.9k on both major sites. Today he gets a start at home in pitcher-friendly AT&T park vs. the Rockies, who have an implied line of just 3.31. The Rockies projected lineup does have 4 batters who had an xwOBA above .335 vs. LHP last year(Arenado, Story, Blackmon, Iannetta) but their lineup is largely lacking pop aside from those aforementioned guys.

There are three pitchers on the board above a 30% strikeout rate tonight. None of them cost more than $10K on either site. Robbie Ray (31.1 K%, 3.88 SIERA, .314 xwOBA) finds himself hosting the Dodgers (141 wRC+, 19.7 HR/FB last seven days). He hasn't allowed more than two runs in six straight, but has still walked 11 of his last 66 batters and has a hard hit rate above 45% in five of those six starts. James Paxton (32 K%, 3.03 SIERA, .299 xwOBA) makes his first start in over two weeks against the A's (139 wRC+ last seven days) in a meaningless game. Jack Flaherty (30.1 K%, 3.48 SIERA, .280 xwOBA) pitches a critical game for the Cardinals against the Brewers (24.5 K% vs RHP). Also, Derek Holland (24 K%) gets the Padres (16.3 K-BB% vs LHP).

Players are more likely than not spending up for pitching tonight. On DraftKings, that may also necessitate moving to the bottom of the board for an SP2. Josh James is making just his second start and doesn't have a very appealing matchup (Mariners 20.2 K% vs RHP). However, he pitches in one of the most negative run environments in baseball, had a 24.9 K-BB% in 17 AAA starts, and costs the minimum on DK. Joey Lucchesi is an affordable arm in the $7.5K range, who may be used as a compliment or even on his own against the Giants (80 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB%, 10.5 HR/FB vs LHP). He has a 25.4 K% and 3.78 SIERA with a matching ERA. His workload is a bit erratic though, going over 100 three starts back, but below 90 in three of his last four overall. Anibal Sanchez (24.1 K%, 3.92 SIERA, .291 xwOBA) is in a decent spot against the Cardinals (95 wRC+, 14.0 K-BB% vs RHP) at a reasonable cost around $8K. A bit more expensive are Jameson Taillon (22 K%, 3.84 SIERA, .299 xwOBA) hosting the Royals (93 wRC+, 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP) and Derek Holland (23.8 K%, 4.12 SIERA, .328 xwOBA) in San Diego (89 wRC+, 15.5 K-BB% vs LHP).

Zack Wheeler was not at his best in Baltimore last time out, but still allowed just one run in five innings. His 24.7 K% over the last month is fourth best on the board. His 11.1 SwStr% or the season is third best. He also has the lowest aEV on the board as well (85.1 mph). He's getting expensive, but has a great matchup (Giants 77 wRC+, 17.1 K-BB% on the road, 15.8 K-BB%, 9.9 HR/FB vs RHP, 33 wRC+, 22.3 K-BB%, 2.5 HR/FB last seven days) in one of the most negative run environments on the board. Alex Wood doesn't have the highest ceiling, but one of the higher floors on the slate. He'd quietly gone over 100 pitches in three of four starts before his most recent outing. He's allowed more than three ERs just three times this year and pitches in the most negative run environment on the board. Chris Archer's 13.3 SwStr% is second best among regular starters tonight. His 89.6 mph aEV is highest on the board, but the Braves don’t have a lot of power (11 HR/FB vs RHP). The problem they present is a lack of strikeouts though (20.5% vs RHP). Archer does cost less than $8K thought. Kevin Gausman has exactly two strikeouts in five of his last eight starts and the Pirates have just a 19.6 K% vs RHP, but considering there are no high strikeout pitchers facing high strikeout offenses and that he's allowed just six runs in 19 innings behind an improved defense since being traded, the little upside he may have may be worth $7.5K or less. Derek Holland has the fourth best strikeout rate on the board (24.1%). The Mets are the hottest offense on the board (154 wRC+ last seven days), but have just an 8.5 HR/FB at home and 77 wRC+ with a 25.5 K% vs LHP.

Shane Bieber has a 19.0 K-BB% through 10 starts, still his lowest at any level since being drafted. He also has some really dangerous platoon splits (LHBs .397 wOBA, 35.2 GB%, 48.9 Hard%). Quickly name all the LH White Sox batters who should be feared. He gets a park upgrade against an offense with a 19.0 K-BB% at home and 18.9 K-BB% vs RHP. Bieber costs around $8K on either site. Kevin Gausman has struck out two batters in three of his last four starts. Though it was just 4.6% in his last start, his 11.1 SwStr% is still the highest of his career. The Brewers have a lot of power (15.6 HR/FB on the road, 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP) and they’ve recently added more power. On the other hand, he must greatly benefit from leaving the AL East, is now pitching in a neutral park and the Brewers have just a 95 wRC+ with a 25.2 K% vs RHP this year. Jose Urena has just a 6.3 K-BB% over his last five starts, completing six innings just once with a 38.2 Hard%. He’s still missing enough bats to be useful (18.2 K% last 30 days) at the right price (around $6K) and has league average estimators in a great park. The Mets don’t strike out a lot (21.6% vs RHP), but have just an 11.5 HR/FB vs RHP. Derek Holland has a 30.6 K% over the last 30 days and has allowed just five ERs over his last 16.1 innings, all on the road. His 24.2 K% for the season is eighth best on the board and he pitches at home tonight against an average offense vs LHP (96 wRC+, 21.9 K%) at a cost below $8K. Nathan Eovaldi has already paid off for the Red Sox through two starts: 15 IP – 0 R – 1 BB – 9 K. He has the third best xwOBA on the board (.297) and is in a spot with some upside (Orioles 24 K% vs RHP).

With half of tonight's slate on the west coast, we're going to have to project on some of these lineups for a bit longer, but one spot that could be interesting for both pitching and offense could be San Diego. Derek Holland has been good and Eric Lauer is cheap, while there are plenty of soft spots in either lineup in a very negative run environment with both teams around the four implied run mark. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within four points of .360 against Lauer this year though and both Andrew McCutchen (130 wRC+, .202 ISO) and Buster Posey (132 wRC+, .151 ISO) have hit LHP well over the last calendar year with Evan Longoria (112 wRC+, .208 ISO) an option with an upgraded lineup slot. On the other side, Derek Holland has improved his wOBA against RHBs by over 60 points this season, but they still have a .341 mark against him with all 14 of his home runs surrendered. There are plenty of strikeouts in this San Diego lineup, but also quite a bit of RH power: Wil Myer (118 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Hunter Renfroe (144 wRC+, .304 ISO) and Christian Villanueva (201 wRC+, .434 ISO).

On a solid pitching slate, they may be over-shadowed by either higher priced pitchers or more dangerous ones with higher strikeout rates in a similar price range, Tyler Anderson and Derek Holland may be two southpaws worth considering tonight. Anderson has pitched into the eighth inning in three of his last five starts and has allowed a total of five runs over his last four starts (four earned), all at home. Gone are the ground balls, but he’s missing bats at an above average rate (22.7 K%, 11.6 SwStr%) and has been an excellent contact manager (27.7% 95+ mph EV is best on the board, as is his .218 xwOBA over the last month). The Cardinals have a dangerous 17.5 HR/FB vs LHP, but it’s an otherwise marginal matchup with a significant park upgrade. Holland has had just two starts over the last four weeks (12.1 IP – 2 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 12 K – 46 BF), while working mostly in relief. While the park helps, the estimators are fine as well and his 24.1 K% is easily a career high, as is his 10.7 SwStr%. Statcast has the slider up from 12% to 23.5% with a .303 xwOBA and 41.4 Whiff% this year. LHBs have a .221 wOBA against and while RHBs are still at .341, they were over .400 last year. He moves from one great park to another one tonight and while the Padres have a bit of thump against LHP (14.8 HR/FB), that comes with an 88 wRC+ and 24.9 K%, along with a board low 62 wRC+ and 22 K-BB% over the last week (despite a 24 HR/FB).

Aside from potentially a few select bats in Arizona (Paul Goldschmidt, Brandon Nimmo) or Oakland (Mike Trout, Justin Upton), the red hot Dodgers (157 wRC+, 27.1 HR/FB last seven days) should be the west coast offense drawing the most interest tonight. They have a 4.78 implied run line against Derek Holland, who has improved on his .408 wOBA allowed against RHBs last season with 26 HRs (41.3 Hard%), but only marginally (.351 wOBA, nine HRs, 44.2 Hard% this season). Justin Turner (224 wRC+, .393 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) may go under-owned with Nolan Arenado facing a lefty in Texas. He has a 218 wRC+ over the last week. Chris Taylor (113 wRC+, .191 ISO) and Kike Hernandez (116 wRC+, .217 ISO) should be strong bets as well should they remain in the top half of the lineup. The Dodgers have not yet confirmed tonight's lineup.