Deven Marrero Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Ty Blach is one of many contact managers on tonight's board, but he misses very few bats (4.9 SwStr%) and is a pitcher players can attack with right-handed batters in the right park. Arizona, humidor or not, would seem such a park. Right-handed batters have a .352 wOBA (.350 xwOBA) against him since last season. Paul Goldschmidt (164 wRC+, .448 xwOBA, .320 ISO, 50 Hard% vs LHP since 2017) may be the top bat on the board. Nick Ahmed (144 wRC+, .224 ISO) has been a surprisingly potent lefty-masher. He's cheap too, but xwOBA is concerned, dropping 102 points from his actual wOBA against southpaws. Deven Marrero (118 wRC+, .250 ISO) costs $2.6K or less with his xwOBA in line with actual stats.

Tonight, players may find out to what extent a park can help a pitcher. Derek Holland pitches in one of the greatest parks in baseball now, though San Francisco punishes left-handed offense much more than right-handed offense. It's still a negative run environment regardless. The problem is that RHBs had an astounding ,403 wOBA against Holland since last season and that's confirmed by a .401 wOBA, 40.3 Hard% and 32.6 GB%. Park factors must be the reason the Diamondbacks have just a 3.86 implied run line tonight and to make matters worse, the two biggest thumpers (Paul Goldschmidt 143 wRC+, .271 ISO, 49.1 Hard% vs LHP since last season - A.J. Pollock 119 wRC+, .261 ISO) both cost at least $3.9K on either site and cost exactly $4.8K on DraftKings each. Nick Ahmed (193 wRC+, .273 ISO) and Deven Marrero (133 wRC+, .279 ISO) are potential value spots here.

Left-handed batters had .265 wOBA (.261 xwOBA) with a 59 GB% and 16.8 Hard% against Alex Wood last year, making it very surprising that the Diamondbacks would choose to lead one off against him. Especially considering Jarrod Dyson's 59 wRC+, .050 ISO and 14.1 Hard% in 344 career PAs against them. Though, perhaps with his speed, weak ground balls might be a positive. Arizona will lineup with seven right-handed batters among their remaining eight position players. They didn't have much more success against Wood last season (.267 wOBA, .281 xwOBA), whose velocity and performance steadily declined throughout the second half of the season last year. The bad news is that it began 2018 right where it left off last year (90.3 mph average in his first start), though the good news is he still managed to one hit the Giants through eight innings without a walk and five strikeouts, in which 14 of 22 batted balls were on the ground. Comparing him to a very similar Dallas Keuchel, both have a similar cost on FanDuel with Keuchel in the better spot, but Wood is nearly $1K cheaper on DraftKings. Paul Goldschmidt (147 wRC+, .277 ISO, 49.6 Hard%) and A.J. Pollock (117 wRC+, .260 ISO) have been the two most productive bats against left-handed pitching here. The surprise would be Deven Marrero's 139 wRC+ and .283 ISO, though that has come in just 66 PAs and a 28.8 FB% against LHP since last year. He does cost the minimum on FanDuel though and less than $3K on DraftKings.

The Red Sox are right in the middle of the board with 3.6 implied runs today. While Dallas Keuchel is tied for the second lowest strikeout rate on the board (21.4%), he has the fourth highest SwStr rate (10.9%) and a 16.7 point lead with his 66.8 GB% on the next highest ground ball rate today. While today's slate boasts some exceptional contact managers, Keuchel's -0.7 Hard-Soft% also leads the slate by a wide margin (3.8 points). The Red Sox have a slate low 16.7 K% on the road and vs LHP this year, but also just a 10.1 HR/FB against southpaws. PlateIQ shows us that today's confirmed lineup has a middling .333 wOBA, and .156 ISO against LHP, but just a 16.3 K%, very in-line with their team season rate. Keuchel is the fourth highest priced pitcher on the board at right around $9K on either site and players know what they're paying for if using him today. Batters from either side had at least a 65 GB% against Keuchel this year. RHBs had a .293 wOBA and 26 Hard%, while LHBs were .100 points worse with just an 18.9 Hard%. Boston bats are not ideal this afternoon, but Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, and Deven Marrero all have a 140 wRC+ or slightly better against lefties this year, while Betts (.201), Marrero (.309) and Hanley Ramirez (.208) all exceed a .200 ISO. Betts would be the top bat in the lineup, Pedroia potentially the top value play (just $2.6K on FanDuel), while Marrero would play the part of the sneaky punt for less than $3K on either site. Other factors players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. With the roof closed at Minute Maid, weather will not be a factor. A closed roof is generally a small upgrade for the pitcher in warmer weather parts of the country. No Houston reliever went more than an inning yesterday and all should be available again today. Their 28.6 K% this season was behind only the Yankees. Although they had a 4.27 ERA, they has the third largest positive gape against their FIP (3.84) this year. Chris Devenski and Joe Musgrave are former starters, who excelled in multi-inning relief roles, while Ken Giles closed and the team picked up Tyler Clippard to add depth. Angel Hernandez is somehow the ball and strike caller for this game according to Yahoo Sports, if the rotation is correct (he was at First Base yesterday). In a 317 game sample according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, players had a 19.6 K% and 7.7 BB% in games called by Hernandez. His 1.09 K-Boost and 0.87 BB-Boost make him one of the more pitcher friendly umpires in the game.