Devon Travis Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
A K-BB below 3% and a terrible bullpen
Heath Fillmyer has a 3.13 ERA more than two runs below his SIERA in a small sample due to a .250 BABIP and 9.1 HR/FB to go along with his 2.6 K-BB%. His platoon splits have some oddness to them too. He's held batters from either side of hte plate on the ground 50% of the time, but RHBs have hit the ball twice as hard as LHBs (46.3 Hard% to 23 Hard%), giving him a reverse split thus far. He's not going to sustain a .253 wOBA against LHBs and the Kansas City bullpen is terrible. Toronto bats are of interest here. Each of the top four. Curtis Granderson (105 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Devon Travis (80 wRC+, .122 ISO) out of affordability at the top of the lineup. Justin Smoak (128 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (120 wRC+, .253 ISO) due to proficiency against RHP.
Platoon Skills
Let me start by saying this: Blake Snell is a good pitcher. But that doesn't mean we can't take underpriced hitters against him. It's easy to forget just how dangerous Travis is with a bat against lefty pitchers because he's either been injured or buried at the bottom of the Jays order, but the Blue Jays righty owns a career 115 wRC+ and .205 ISO against south paws. Provided he continues to bat toward the top of the Blue Jays order, Travis will remain in the cash game value discussion for as long as he's this cheap.
He's Back
Devon Travis is back. Travis has earned his way back to hitting second in the order for the Jays and has posted double-digit DK point totals in three of his last four games, including two 21 point performances. Travis has always had a strong offensive skill-set against LHP (119 wRC+, .208 ISO) but injuries and poor lineup spots have kept him off our radar for most of the last two seasons. Travis is way too cheap on FanDuel ($2,400) and he has an exploitable price tag on DraftKings as well ($3,700).
Get Creative
The absence of Josh Donaldson obviously weakens the Blue Jays offense significantly as a whole but they'll still enter Monday's slate with the highest implied run total (5.4) on the board. Outside of Smoak on DraftKings, every Jays hitter is priced under $4,000 and outside of Smoak + Solarte on FanDuel, every Jays hitter is priced under $3,000. Those cheap price tags allow you to get creative with GPP builds and allow you to spend up on both pitcher spots on DraftKings (too bad we don't have more high priced options).
Matt Moore brings a .343 xwOBA last year and career 38.3 GB% to Texas
Kevin's most recent forecast has some concern of a delay, but less so for a PPD, which is really what players are worried about for this game in Texas...hitters! Matt Moore brings with him from San Francisco some of the worst Statcast numbers on the board. His .358 wOBA was completely confirmed by a .352 xwOBA, including an 88.4 mph aEV, 8.5% Barrels/BBE and 38% 95+ mph EV that are all worst on the board for 2017. That and a career 38.3 GB% are unlikely to do him any favors in Texas. A career and 2017 reverse platoon split matter nothing here because the Blue Jays have stacked the lineup entirely right-handed against him. RHBs had a .326 wOBA and .343 xwOBA against him last year with a 35.1 Hard%, the lower actual wOBA likely a function of a friendly home park, which means we'd expect to see something potentially worse than his xwOBA in Texas. At the top of the lineup, Josh Donaldson (176 wRC+, .393 ISO) and Justin Smoak (165 wRC+, 231 ISO) have destroyed LHP since last season, as have Kendrys Morales (164 wRC+, .231 ISO, 42 Hard%), Kevin Pillar (144 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Devon Travis (168 wRC+, .290 ISO) near the bottom, the latter with only 35 PAs. Steve Pearce has a stronger career track record, but just a 94 wRC+ and .226 ISO vs southpaws since last season. Yangervis Solarte, Russell Martin, and Randal Grichuk are probably all better their a sub-75 wRC+ against LHP.
Maybe This Time?
UPDATE: Travis makes a better GPP option as he'll move down to ninth in the order for the Blue Jays.
Travis has been wildly disappointing to start the year but as long as the fella remains cheap and continues to leadoff for a capable Jays offense he's going to remain a strong salary relief option most slates. Most season long projections have Travis as a below average hitter so don't be tricked into thinking you're rostering an offensive juggernaut in Travis. What you're getting in Travis is a lot of opportunity (leadoff hitter for good offense) in a good ballpark (Arlington) at a super cheap price ($2,300 FD; $3,100 DK).
Favorite Stack of the Night
The Blue Jays check in as my favorite overall stack of the night. They will undoubtedly load up their lineup with right-handed bats against Matt Moore, and they will face him in a park that is very conducive to offense. Playing in Texas is like playing at the Equator right now given the cold weather in the Midwest and Northeast, so this game should feature some fireworks. There's also the fact that Moore isn't really any good, and he struggled against hitters from both sides of the plate last year, barely achieving a 40% ground ball rate while allowing hard contact over 33% of the time to hitters from each side. Fire up the top and middle of the Blue Jays order with extreme confidence here.
Value Hunting: Jordy Mercer, J.T. Realmuto, Devon Travis lead the way
We don't have any 'aces' on the hill tonight to pay up for, but that doesn't mean we won't need a few value plays to afford some of the higher end hitters in plus spots. Shortstop is pretty barren towards the top - Corey Seager faces off with John Lackey, one of the tougher arms on the slate, and Carlos Correa will do battle on the road in Seattle, so this is a spot we can feel comfortable punting. Jordy Mercer is priced at just $2,100 on FanDuel and $3,200 on DraftKings out of the leadoff spot against a rookie LHP, and given his splits against LHs (.357 wOBA, .177 ISO), that salary is a bargain. J.T. Realmuto has come out of the gate on fire, recording hits in all six of his starts including four multi-hit games, and he's had fairly strong power numbers against LHP for a catcher (.176 career ISO). The fact that he can run and slots into the two spot in the Marlins order ahead of three very viable bats only helps to further his upside. Last but not least is Devon Travis, who has started slowly this season but has one of the best draws at the 2B spot against reverse-split pitcher Chase Anderson. Travis remains the leadoff man in Toronto and sits at just $2,400 on FanDuel (his $4K price tag on DK isn't as appealing), making him an option in any format. David Freese is another strong punt play out of the clean-up spot for the Pirates, and Marcell Ozuna looks particularly appealing at $3,700 on DraftKings. We also can't forget about the D'Backs value against Matt Cain (Pollock, Peralta and Lamb are all priced at $3.8K or below on DraftKings).
Toronto RH bats in a great spot against reverse-split SP Chase Anderson
The Toronto RH bats are among the most appealing targets on tonight's slate against Chase Anderson, who struggles mightily against RH bats but doesn't fare particularly well against bats from either side of the plate. Part of the reason Anderson struggles against RH bats is because he has more of a lefty approach as a pitcher, utilizing his change-up often (about 25% of the time last season) while rarely topping out above 91-92 MPH with his fastball. Last season, he allowed a .394 wOBA to RH bats (.289 vs. LHs) with a whopping 17 HRs allowed (1.87 HR/9), so it's going to be hard not to look to a lineup loaded with RH bats this evening (Toronto doesn't have a true LH bat in the lineup, just one switch hitter). Despite pitching in a hitter-friendly environment, Anderson actually fared worse on the road from a HR perspective, allowing a 2.11 HR/9 rate to RH bats. All of the Toronto bats in the top seven of the order are squarely in play, and paying a premium for guys like Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson is certainly warranted, as the field may not be privy to Anderson's reverse splits. Donaldson finished 2016 with a .405 wOBA, .272 ISO and 41.0 hard% against RHP, including blasting 30 of his 37 HRs off RHs. Jose Bautista has gotten off to a rough start against RHs this season - he's just 2-22 so far - but he had better numbers against RHP in 2016, finishing with a .361 wOBA and .220 ISO. Devon Travis is still far too cheap on FanDuel ($2.4K), setting him up as an across the board play there, and the same goes for Troy Tulowitzki who is sitting at just $2,800. Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin and Steve Pearce are also options on the Toronto side.
A pair of Mariners atop the order lead tonight's Bargain Basement team
Looking for top half of the lineup bats costing less than $3K on DraftKings/$2.5K on FanDuel, we find the top of the Seattle lineup (facing Joe Musgrove). Jarrod Dyson ($2.9K DK) leads off and Mitch Haniger ($2K on FD) bats second. Haniger has shown more of a bat against RHP (122 wRC+ career) thus far, but either one may be a necessary punt on their given site if looking to pay up for Coors bats tonight. Aaron Hill ($2.2K DK) could be an interesting bat if in the lineup against Robbie Ray at home tonight, though we don't expect many players to be punting 3B tonight. Wilmer Difo (89 wRC+ vs RHP career) is another middle IF punt option who fits the bargain basement criteria on both sites. In fact, he could become a popular play tonight with Trevor Story sitting and Lance Lynn's documented issues against LHBs (.340 wOBA career). Devon Travis (117 wRC+ vs RHP career) is another leadoff bat, costing just $2.4K on FanDuel.