| Date | Opp | DKSAL | FDSAL | DKFPTS | FDFPTS | sf | ab | slg | h | so | hbp | gidp | 1b | babip | 2b | pa | 3b | sb | hr | xbh | r | obp | rbi | iso | bb | ops | ibb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-09 | @ TOR | $2.9K | $2.2K | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2021-04-08 | @ TOR | $2.9K | $2.3K | 13 | 15.2 | 0 | 5 | 0.4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0 |
| 2021-04-05 | vs. HOU | $3.3K | $2.3K | 5 | 6.5 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2021-04-04 | vs. CWS | $9K | $2.3K | 5 | 6.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 2021-04-03 | vs. CWS | $3.5K | $2.3K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021-04-02 | vs. CWS | $3.6K | $2.3K | 5 | 6.2 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2021-04-01 | vs. CWS | $2.9K | $2.3K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-10-02 | @ SD | $4K | $5K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-10-01 | @ SD | $2.8K | $2.4K | 12 | 15.7 | 0 | 5 | 0.6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2020-09-30 | @ SD | -- | -- | 8 | 9.5 | 0 | 5 | 0.4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0 |
| 2020-09-27 | vs. MIL | $2.8K | $2.5K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-09-26 | vs. MIL | $2.5K | $2.5K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-09-25 | @ MIL | -- | -- | 4 | 6.2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 |
| 2020-09-25 | vs. MIL | $3K | $5.5K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-09-24 | vs. MIL | $2.8K | $2.5K | 8 | 12.4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2020-09-23 | @ KC | $3K | $2K | 5 | 6.5 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2020-09-22 | @ KC | $3.1K | $2K | 4 | 6.2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 |
| 2020-09-21 | @ KC | $3K | $2K | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2020-09-01 | @ CIN | $4.2K | $2.6K | 9 | 13.2 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 |
| 2020-08-31 | @ CIN | $6.8K | $5.5K | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 |
| 2020-08-30 | vs. CLE | $2.6K | $2.5K | 25 | 34.9 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.67 | 3 | 1.33 | 0 | 2.67 | 0 |
| 2020-08-29 | vs. CLE | $2.8K | $2.5K | 7 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
| 2020-08-28 | vs. CLE | $2.5K | $2.5K | 16 | 22.2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 |
| 2020-08-27 | vs. PIT | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-08-27 | vs. PIT | $2.9K | -- | 7 | 9.2 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.17 | 0 |
| 2020-08-25 | vs. KC | $2.8K | $2.5K | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 |
| 2020-08-24 | vs. KC | $2.7K | $2.3K | 11 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 0.9 | 0 |
| 2020-08-22 | vs. CIN | $3K | $2.4K | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 |
| 2020-08-21 | vs. CIN | $3.1K | $2.4K | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| 2020-08-20 | vs. CIN | $3.1K | $2.4K | 7 | 9.2 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 |
| 2020-08-19 | @ CHC | $9.6K | $5.5K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-08-18 | @ CHC | $2.7K | $2.4K | 5 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 |
| 2020-08-17 | vs. CHC | $3.1K | $2.4K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-08-17 | @ CHC | $9.6K | $5.5K | 14 | 18.7 | 0 | 3 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.67 | 0 |
| 2020-08-16 | @ CWS | $3.3K | $2.4K | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 |
| 2020-08-15 | @ CWS | $7.2K | $5K | 12 | 16.2 | 0 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.33 | 0 |
| 2020-07-29 | @ MIN | $3.1K | $2.6K | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 |
| 2020-07-28 | @ MIN | $3.2K | $2.6K | 7 | 9.2 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 |
| 2020-07-26 | vs. PIT | $3.4K | $2.5K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-07-25 | vs. PIT | $3.5K | $2.4K | 5 | 6.5 | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 |
| 2020-07-24 | vs. PIT | $3.4K | $2.4K | 14 | 18.7 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 1.25 | 0 |
Dexter Fowler Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Jack Flaherty & Mike Foltynewicz had great second halves & pitched well in Game Two
Wednesday’s MLB slate features two elimination games in the National League. This means that no starting pitcher is safe from the quick hook, although the Cardinals certainly have their best pitcher on the mound. Jack Flaherty struck out eight of the 29 Braves he faced, walking just one with a single HR and three earned runs despite keeping 60% of his contact on the ground. He ties for the slate lead with a 29.9 K% this year and his 2.75 ERA tops the board by more than a full half run, though his estimators are more in line with the two pitchers in Los Angeles tonight. Flaherty’s 80.6 Z-Contact% is best on the board by nearly four full points and his 86.1 mph aEV is best on the board by more than a mile per hour. At Flaherty’s $7.4K price tag on DraftKings, he may be the best value there. The Braves had a 23.2 K% vs RHP this year, although today’s specific lineup features just four batters below a 17 K%.
Offensively, it’s a very tight board with only the Nationals outside a 3.75 to 4.0 implied run range. Atlanta is the much more hitter friendly run environment here too. The surprise in this lineup is Adam Duvall (91 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP this year), who’s had some big hits in this series, replacing Matt Joyce. While Flaherty had just 18 points separating his wOBA between RH and LH batters this season (both below .270), his xwOBA pushed that past 60 points (LHBs .306), making this a questionable decision. A healthy Freddie Freeman (154 wRC+, .280 ISO) would be the top bat in this spot, but there’s some question about how healthy he really is. Ozzie Albies (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .147 ISO) are more league average bats against RHP, while Brian McCann (97 wRC+, .178 ISO) is certainly viable behind the plate here.
Mike Foltynewicz has the worst season numbers on the board. His 21.4 K% is the only mark below 29% and his estimators (all above four) are the only ones above four. In fact, he owns the only DRA above three and his .325 xwOBA is worst on the board by exactly 50 points. That said, he struck out seven of 24 Cardinals, allowing just three hits without a run in his first start of the series and finished up on quite the run. After being recalled to the majors in August, he has a 2.65 ERA and 3.77 FIP with a 16.5 K-BB% in 10 starts. With the top park neutral matchup on the board (Cardinals 93 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), Folty is at least viable in a secondary DraftKings spot at the lowest price on the board ($6K). Dexter Fowler (107 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP) is the lowest priced Cardinal on DraftKings ($3.7K) and potentially the top value bat in this game (also below $3K on FanDuel). Marcell Ozuna (113 wRC+, .224 ISO) has been heating up in this series. Paul DeJong (104 wRC+, .228 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year. Yadiers Molina (77 wRC+) is the only batter in the lineup outside a 97-113 wRC+ range vs RHP this year.
Jack Flaherty dominated his last 16 starts (0.98 ERA, 2.32 FIP, 27.2 K-BB%)
Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for the second straight day should make Atlanta the most positive run environment on the board again today, though these are projected to be two middle of the board offenses, each within a quarter of a run of four implied runs. Jack Flaherty finished the season with a second half as hot as the weather in Atlanta today. Over his last 16 starts, he had a 0.98 ERA with a 2.32 FIP, 3.27 xFIP and 27.2 K-BB%. His 86.1 mph aEV this season is lowest on the board. Considering that both teams emptied the bullpen last night and the Cardinals have a one game lead, St Louis may be more incentivized to push him deeper into this game. Flaherty is the second most expensive arm on FanDuel, but possibly a strong value on DraftKings for $8.2K, despite the unfriendly conditions. The Atlanta lineup has just a 19.3 combined K% vs RHP this year, according to PlateIQ with only three non-pitcher bats above a 20 K%, so it’s not going to be easy.
Mike Foltynewicz is worst on the board in terms of strikeout rate (21.4%), Z-O-Swing (44.9%), SIERA (4.71), FIP (4.97) and 95+ mph EV (39.5%), many of those stats by a wide margin. However, since returning to the majors in August, he generated a 2.65 ERA and 3.77 FIP with a 23.8 K% over his final 10 starts. He also faces the worst offense on the board (Cardinals 93 wRC+, 23.2 K%, 13.9 HR/FB vs RHP). Folty is certainly a useful secondary arm on DraftKings at the lowest price point on the board ($6.2K). This is also a spot to look at some St Louis bats as well. Dexter Fowler (109 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (114 wRC+, .228 ISO) may have the most value. RHBs (.328 wOBA, .337 xwOBA) actually performed better against Foltynewicz than LHBs (.307 wRC+, .311 xwOBA) this year.
Intriguing GPP One-Off Play
I am certainly not stacking the Cardinals tonight, but I like Fowler as a one-off play. He has been playing with a ton of confidence ever since he got moved into the leadoff role. He made a great leaping catch over the wall yesterday and has all sorts of motivation to beat his former team. The Cardinals are 0-6 at Wrigley Field this year, and certainly my fandom hopes they head into Chicago with some gusto tonight. Give Fowler a look as an affordable one-off outfield play against Hendricks.
Still The Best Spot
You have to have a short memory in MLB DFS, as the Cardinals are right back to being the top spot after a rough Tuesday. There is a stronger lean to their left-handed bats tonight against Antonio Senzatela which puts Dexter Fowler at the top of the board for cash games and St. Louis stacks. Senzatela is a low strikeout, high walk pitcher to lefties which gives Fowler lots of on base and run scoring upside tonight.
Elite Spot for Production
The Cardinals disappointed at Coors Field last night, but they will have a good chance to put that in the rear view mirror with a favorable matchup against Senzatela tonight. The Colorado starter has an ERA over seven an ugly advanced metrics this year, and he doesn't miss any bats. He got shelled for six runs in 1 2/3 innings in a start at Busch Stadium against these same Redbirds two weeks ago. Lean toward the power bats here with lower strikeout risk, which puts DeJong and Ozuna at the top of my list. Dexter Fowler is also a solid play at the top of the order. There's tons of GPP stack upside.
Great Value
The Cardinals are rolling right now with eight wins in their last nine games, and Dexter Fowler has been hitting out of the leadoff spot. This is a fine spot for him as a value bat against Tyler Mahle, who is coming back from a rehab stint to make his first start back in the big leagues. Mahle also has wide splits, having long struggled against left-handed bats with some pop. This isn't the same Dexter Fowler in 2019, but he has looked better of late, as he amassed a .381 OBP and had 21 RBIs in August.
Gio Gonzalez has a SIERA (4.89) and DRA (4.40) much higher than his ERA (3.64)
Considering a potential washout in Kansas City and likely pitcher friendly conditions in Philadelphia, Milwaukee may easily be the most positive run environment on the board without another park coming even close tonight. This means players need to look at both offenses very seriously tonight. While the Brewers are currently the top offense on the board, the Cardinals check in at a 4.66 implied run line that places them fourth. While Gio Gonzalez has been about average vs RHBs over the last calendar year (.316 wOBA, .336 xwOBA), the advantage for the Cardinals here is that Gio’s 3.64 ERA is well below his 4.89 SIERA and 4.40 DRA, while his .344 xwOBA is 30 points worse than his actual results. A .361 xwOBA over the last 30 days is 40 points worse. His ground ball rate is down to 40.2% this year, which has resulted in 8.4% Barrels/BBE. While he did strike out six Brewers in five innings with just one run in his last start, he did walk four and the advantage generally goes to the offense seeing a pitcher for the second straight outing. Paul Goldschmidt (121 wRC+, .274 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is unquestionably your top overall bat here. He has a 52% hard hit rate over the last week and is not even that expensive ($4.5K DK, $3.7K FD). Tommy Edman (113 wRC+, .200 ISO) bats second, Marcell Ozuna (99 wRC+, .278 ISO) is in the cleanup spot, and Dexter Fowler (100 wRC+, .176 ISO) should have some value at the top of the order.
Peter Lambert has a slate-worst 6.35 SIERA and -0.9% K-BB over past 30 days
While Peter Lambert’s last 30 days have been rough (7.56 ERA / 6.35 SIERA, -0.9% K-BB, 5% SwStr) they aren’t terribly far off from his overall 2019 stats (6.55 ERA / 5.24 SIERA, 7.4% K-BB, 6.5% SwStr). He’s simply just not a good pitcher and can be targeted whether he’s pitching in Coors or not. Lambert does own a solid 47.1% GB rate, but still gives up a lot of home runs (1.77 HR/9), doesn’t miss enough bats and walks too many hitters to prevent giving up runs in bunches. Lambert does have a very wide platoon split over 66 innings this year (.376 xwOBA vs. LHP, .307 xwOBA vs. RHP) but I wouldn’t shy away from Cardinals’ righties in this spot. Marcell Ozuna (.392 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Dexter Fowler (.342), Paul Goldschmidt (.336), Paul DeJong (.333), Harrison Bader (.318), Kolten Wong (.297) and Tommy Edman (.293) are all in play tonight vs. Lambert. Though the Cardinals offense has largely struggled over the past few months, their top of the order guys have begun to heat up of late as Ozuna, Goldschmidt and Fowler all have an xwOBA over .400 over the past 2 weeks. Fowler is quietly enjoying a nice bounceback season and is leading off at just $4.2k on Draftkings tonight. The Cardinals should have slightly low ownership tonight despite a good matchup and solid 5.09 implied total.
Cheap Stack Against HR Prone Pitcher
The Cardinals will be quite off the board despite their 5.1 implied run total, but they're facing a fairly high variance pitcher in Joe Musgrove, who has surrendered 2+ home runs in his past 3 starts and is getting a bit of a ballpark downgrade on the road. The 5-man stack is frugal, coming in at under $20k total and fills a scarce SS position. Being that Musgrove is much weaker to lefties, Dexter Fowler & Matt Carpenter are prime targets for the stack in GPP, and are currently projected to be under 5% owned.
Possible to Get Tournament Leverage With Offense Facing Underpriced Pitcher
Houston starter Jose Urquidy is significantly underpriced on some sites today, and he will sure to be a popular pitcher, particularly on DraftKings where he is only $5,000. While I’ll certainly be using Urquidy in some lineups, if you are looking to get leverage in GPPs, stacking against Urquidy is not a terrible idea either. Urquidy gave up 10 home runs in only 48.2 AAA innings this season, and the St Louis offense has finally come to life with the 6th-highest ISO in MLB over the past two weeks after underperforming all season. I’ll be looking at the Cardinals power hitters hoping for extremely low ownership, particularly Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, and Dexter Fowler, along with Tommy Edman if he is hitting leadoff.