Domingo Santana Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Adrian Sampson misses bats at a below average rate (18.8 K%) with an ERA and estimators around five and has allowed the loudest contact on the board (.363 xwOBA, 90.7 mph aEV and 46.5% 95+ mph EV are all worst on the board). While it’s always great to get out of Texas and Seattle is a major park bump for him that might mute some of that loud contact a bit, he is the only pitcher on the board to feature a Z-Contact above 90% and a Z-O-Swing above 40%. While Dan Vogelbach (162 wRC+, .319 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) immediately jumps to mind as the play here. RHBs have a wOBA (.384) and xwOBA (.404) more than 40 points above LHBs against Sampson over the last calendar year. Domingo Santana (117 wRC+, .179 ISO) may be just as strong a play at the same price. Add J.P. Crawford (132 wRC+, .242 ISO) to stacks at a much lower price.

It’s not as easy as usual finding pitchers to stack against on the night slate, as there are a number of good pitchers throwing tonight and not a ton of matchups that stand out. One lineup to consider stacking is the Mariners, who have still managed to swing the bat decently well (106 wRC+ over last 30 days) despite trading a few of their best bats. Though Chris Bassitt has a 3.80 ERA, his estimators indicate regression as he owns a 4.81 xFIP and 4.75 SIERA. Bassitt has also really struggled of late; he’s posted a 4.50 ERA, 5.24 xFIP and 5.29 SIERA with an 8.6% K-BB over the past 30 days. Daniel Vogelbach (.407 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Domingo Santana (.367), JP Crawford (.343), Mac Williamson (.331), Kyle Seager (.320), Omar Narvaez (.307) and Mallex Smith (.280) are all options tonight vs. Bassitt. Smith started the year a bit slow but has slightly improved with a .303 xwOBA over the past month; he projects to leadoff tonight. All Mariners bats are available at an affordable $4.4k or less on Draftkings tonight, on Fanduel they will be priced $3.7k and lower. The Mariners have a 4.41 implied total for this matchup.

Andrew Heaney presents an interesting situation in his third starts. He has struck out 18 of 41 batters (10 Mariners too), but has allowed four HRs and a 91.8 mph aEV, 22.7% Barrels/BBE, 50% 95+ mph over his two starts. That’s a HR or strikeout for more than half the batters he’s faced so far. This is obviously unsustainable from either end, but HRs and strikeouts continues an established trend throughout his career. The Mariners are worse against LHP. Lots of strikeouts (26.1%), but predominantly RH with some power (16.4 HR/FB). Heaney’s not cheap, but less than $10K for that many strikeouts from a pitcher who should start going deeper into games isn’t too expensive. This is a pitcher players should consider some exposure too as HRs aren’t that big a deal when a pitcher is whiffing so many batters. However, we can also have it both ways. Edwin Encarnacion (131 wRC+, .209 ISO), Domingo Santana (132 wRC+, .284 ISO), and Mitch Haniger (145 wRC+, .199 ISO) have been Seattle’s best hitters against LHP over the last calendar year. RHBs are have a wOBA more than 100 points higher than LHBs against Heaney over the last calendar year.

Corbin Martin has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 11 innings since an impressive debut, where he struck out nine Rangers. The 50th ranked prospect (Fangraphs) has faced 56 batters since then, walking eight and striking out only seven, while allowing five HRs. Martin has had above average strikeout rates at every stop in professional baseball, so it’s not a question of talent, but he appears over-matched in recent starts. The good news is that his 31.6 HR/FB comes with a board best 17.6 Hard-Soft%, supported by a 17.6 LD% and 15.8 IFFB%. The Statcast numbers tell a different, and stranger story though. While he’s allowed just 5.9% Barrels/BBE (best on the board), he’s also generating a 90.1 mph aEV with 45.1% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. Estimators, all above five, stand by his 5.51 ERA. On a three game slate, this is a spot where players can certainly take GPP shots on his prospect upside in a secondary role on DraftKings for $7.1K, but Seattle bats are certainly worth a flyer as well, as a lot of players probably aren’t sure how to handle Martin yet and would rather attack Eric Lauer’s 4.8 SwStr% over the last month or Wade LeBlanc’s .410 xwOBA this season. Martin has allowed much harder contact (42.3 Hard%) and a .370 xwOBA to same-handed batters so far (LHBs 28 Hard%, .288 xwOBA). Mitch Haniger (134 wRC+, .174 ISO), Domingo Santana (115 wRC+, .254 ISO) and Edwin Encarnacion (135 wRC+, .214 ISO) have been the batters who have done the most damage to same-handed pitching this year. Tim Beckham (103 wRC+, .203 ISO) has been competent as well.

Shelby Miller has been awful by virtually every single metric this season (5.0 SwStr%, 90.1 Z-Contact%, 44.3 Z-O-Swing%, 7.63 ERA, 7.51 SIERA, 90 mph aEV, .426 xwOBA) and while he does get a significant park bump outside of Texas tonight, the Mariners have shown they have no problems putting runs on the board at home, scoring in the double digits last night. The Mariners are right at five implied runs currently and that total is good for third best on the board. Further, there is an extremely hitter friendly umpire assigned to this game. Batters from either side of the plate are above both a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Miller since his return from surgery last year (eight starts). It’s not a large sample size, but large enough for players to confidently fire away on some Seattle bats. Dan Vogelbach (191 wRC+, .368 ISO, 52.2 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year) has been murdering baseballs this season and should be worth his increasing price tag. Omar Narvaez (140 wRC+, .185 ISO) is similarly increasing in cost and generally bats lower in the lineup, but should still have some appeal at a terrible position. Domingo Santana (138 wRC+, .221 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (124 wRC+, .238 ISO), Mitch Haniger (125 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Jay Bruce (96 wRC+, .183 ISO, but 270 wRC+, 57.1 Hard% last seven days) should round out the top half of a strong lineup tonight.