Dustin Pedroia Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Boston Red Sox have the second highest implied run line on the slate (5.05) against Charlie Morton. Morton is one of five pitchers on today's board with a strikeout rate between 26 and 27.3%, though his 3.70 SIERA was actually third best among today's eight starters. After returning from over a month long DL stint in June, in his final 15 starts of the season, he registered a 19.5 K-BB%, 52.2 GB% and -6.5 Hard-Soft%, which is a fairly exceptional line. Over that span, LHBs had a .211 wOBA (four HRs) with a 28.9 K-BB% and 2.0 Hard-Soft% (45.2 GB%). RHBs had a .338 wOBA (three HRs) with a 11.6 K-BB% and -12.4 Hard-Soft% (56.9 GB%). Neither side made much potent contact against him, though he struggled a bit more with peripherals against RHBs. While the reverse split in terms of wOBA could help the Red Sox, this was not a pitcher to be trifled with during the latter half of the season for batters from either side. The confirmed Boston lineup had a .323 wOBA against RHP with just a .161 ISO and 18.3 K%. While the dangerous run environment and rain delay potential may make it more difficult to roster Morton at the second lowest price on the board on either site, Boston bats could be a bit over-valued by Vegas in this spot. The Astros still have a one game lead in the series, but don't want to stretch it out any further. The leash for Morton may not be as short as Porcello's, but his margin for error may be slim. No batter in the lineup has more than three BBEs recorded by Statcast against Morton or a career HR. Andrew Benintendi (111 wRC+) is the only batter above a 101 wRC+ against RHP this year. Mitch Moreland (.214 ISO) the only one above a .200 ISO. Xander Bogaerts (93 wRC+, .134 ISO vs RHP), Dustin Pedroia (95 wRC+, .093 ISO vs RHP) and Hanley Ramirez (101 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP) all cost $2.7K or less on FanDuel. Kevin gives this game his worst forecast of the post-season to date (ORANGE/YELLOW). He does believe they can play through the rain, but an early weather related dismissal of Porcello could hurt the Astros. The good news for hitters is that the moisture and a 10-20 mph wind blowing out to left-center should give an additional boost to batters. Yahoo Sports lists Mark Wegner as the home plate umpire for this game. In 288 opportunities according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, batters have a 19.3 K% and 7.8 BB% with him calling pitches, which makes him a very hitter friendly umpire (0.94 K-Boost, 1.14 BB-Boost).

The Red Sox are right in the middle of the board with 3.6 implied runs today. While Dallas Keuchel is tied for the second lowest strikeout rate on the board (21.4%), he has the fourth highest SwStr rate (10.9%) and a 16.7 point lead with his 66.8 GB% on the next highest ground ball rate today. While today's slate boasts some exceptional contact managers, Keuchel's -0.7 Hard-Soft% also leads the slate by a wide margin (3.8 points). The Red Sox have a slate low 16.7 K% on the road and vs LHP this year, but also just a 10.1 HR/FB against southpaws. PlateIQ shows us that today's confirmed lineup has a middling .333 wOBA, and .156 ISO against LHP, but just a 16.3 K%, very in-line with their team season rate. Keuchel is the fourth highest priced pitcher on the board at right around $9K on either site and players know what they're paying for if using him today. Batters from either side had at least a 65 GB% against Keuchel this year. RHBs had a .293 wOBA and 26 Hard%, while LHBs were .100 points worse with just an 18.9 Hard%. Boston bats are not ideal this afternoon, but Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, and Deven Marrero all have a 140 wRC+ or slightly better against lefties this year, while Betts (.201), Marrero (.309) and Hanley Ramirez (.208) all exceed a .200 ISO. Betts would be the top bat in the lineup, Pedroia potentially the top value play (just $2.6K on FanDuel), while Marrero would play the part of the sneaky punt for less than $3K on either site. Other factors players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. With the roof closed at Minute Maid, weather will not be a factor. A closed roof is generally a small upgrade for the pitcher in warmer weather parts of the country. No Houston reliever went more than an inning yesterday and all should be available again today. Their 28.6 K% this season was behind only the Yankees. Although they had a 4.27 ERA, they has the third largest positive gape against their FIP (3.84) this year. Chris Devenski and Joe Musgrave are former starters, who excelled in multi-inning relief roles, while Ken Giles closed and the team picked up Tyler Clippard to add depth. Angel Hernandez is somehow the ball and strike caller for this game according to Yahoo Sports, if the rotation is correct (he was at First Base yesterday). In a 317 game sample according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, players had a 19.6 K% and 7.7 BB% in games called by Hernandez. His 1.09 K-Boost and 0.87 BB-Boost make him one of the more pitcher friendly umpires in the game.

Only three batters tonight are expected to even reach 15% ownership currently. Both Seattle Mariners (Nelson Cruz and Mike Zunino) on DraftKings plus Dustin Pedroia on FanDuel. This is as spread out as we've seen batter ownership this year and part of the reason might be some uncertainty on the top of the pitching board with Max Scherzer and Jon Lester not up to their usual standards recently and Yu Darvish routinely getting pounded by LHBs. All three are still expected to be among the top owned pitchers against weaker offenses tonight with Scherzer quite a bit ahead of everyone else. Patrick Corbin could be the cheaper secondary pitcher of choice on DraftKings, but even he had his issues last time out, getting bombed by the Padres of all teams. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.

Five of 24 teams are projected between 5.21 and 5.81 runs tonight with three between 4.89 and 4.95 runs with Boston at the top of the pile against Jharel Cotton, who has the odd distinction of strong looking Statcast exit velocity numbers (86 mph aEV, 30.3% 95+ mph EV), but lots of HRs (26 over his last 17 starts). He's allowed six in just the last two, but with a hard hit rate above 40% each time. The Red Sox don't strike out a lot, but don't hit for power either (9.6 HR/FB at home, 11.3 HR/FB vs RHP). Cotton has no real split with batters from either side above a .350 wOBA, below a 40 GB% and right around a league average hard hit rate. Among projected starters, Mitch Moreland is the only one who combines an above average wRC+ (101) with an ISO above .200 (.201) against RHP this year and just barely. Mookie Betts (98 wRC+, .185 ISO, 35.5 Hard%, 43.3 FB% vs RHP) and Dustin Pedroia (105 wRC+, .101 ISO vs RHP) each have a wRC+ above 240 over the last week, though Betts (53.3%) crushes Pedroia (18.2%) in hard hit rate. Rafael Devers (96 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP) has shown some power as well. Seattle (5.57) is the only other team currently above five and a half runs. They face Martin Perez in Texas, which seems like an ideal spot, but Perez has a 51.3 GB% with a 24.2 Hard% over his last seven starts. RHBs have a .359 wOBA and 34.9 Hard% against him this season, but just a .308 wOBA with two HRs, a 53.3 GB% and 24.8 Hard% over this span. Nelson Cruz has crushed Perez in 21 PAs (.607 wOBA, three HRs, 104.7 mph aEV) and is certainly a top bat (126 wRC+, .172 ISO, 42.7 Hard% vs LHP), while Mitch Haniger (126 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP, 291 wRC last seven days) and Mike Zunino (122 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP) are interesting as well, but players may want to be more cautious when considering an all out assault on Perez, who has been managing contact well.

Among batters with at least nine BBEs against tonight's pitcher, Dustin Pedroia has both the most BBEs (16) and highest aEV (92.8 mph) with two HRs (28 PAs), though none of that seems all too exciting. Joey Votto has homered a slate high three times against Zack Greinke with seven extra-base hits in 34 PAs. He has just an 82.8 mph aEV on four BBEs in the Statcast era, but the interesting thing here is Votto is not a massive exit velocity guy. He has 32 Barrels this year, which is seventh best in baseball, but only 34.8% of his contact has been above 95 mph. No other players with at least 30 Barrels is below 42%. He has struck out just twice against Greinke and seems to see him well in a very run friendly park. J.D. Martinez has two HRs (two doubles) in 20 PAs with a 97.7 mph aEV (seven BBEs) against Carlos Carrasco. Miguel Sano has homered twice in eight PAs with a 97.7 mph aEV against Kevin Gausman and Brian McCann has two HRs in 10 PAs (97.1 mph aEV) against Aaron Sanchez as well.

Arizona is the only offense with two batters in the top five overall (top six on DraftKings) among the RotoGrinders Players Projections. Both Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb stand a good chance of being among top scorers at home tonight against Adam Wainwright, who has allowed a .350+ wOBA to batters from both sides this year. Jose Bautista and Justin Smoak (180 wRC+, .233 ISO vs LHP this year) both project strongly against Wade Miley, who has sacrificed strikeouts for ground balls lately. RHBs have a .358 wOBA against him since last season, but Bautista has just a 35 wRC+ and .063 ISO against LHP this year. Mookie Betts (111 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP since 2016) is the top overall projected bat against Adalberto Mejia (RHBs .349 wOBA, 37.1 Hard%). On FanDuel, a minimum priced Max Moroff in the leadoff spot for Pittsburgh against Blake Snell projects at the top potential value (3.88 Pt/$/K), followed by a trio of Boston bats below $3K (Chris Young, Dustin Pedroia, Sam Travis). Pedroia and Travis also share top value honors on DraftKings at just below 2.5 Pt/$/K, followed closely by Jose Bautista (2.47 Pt/$/K).