Edwin Jackson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Edwin Jackson has the worst HR/FB (25.4%), FIP (7.53), DRA (8.99), xwOBA (.402) and Barrels/BBE (11.7%) on the board. The evidence is sufficient enough to conclude that this pitcher gets hit hard on a consistent basis. The problem would be that the Royals have an 86 wRC+ vs RHP and 9.4 HR/FB at home in a power suppressing park. But it doesn’t necessarily suppress run scoring. In fact, at 5.8 implied runs, the Royals are the third best offense on the board tonight. While the overall numbers are pretty terrible, there a few Kansas City bats that merit some attention. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against Jackson over the last calendar year. Good news for same-handed batters like Whit Merrifield (112 wRC+, .143 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Hunter Dozier (121 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Jorge Soler (133 wRC+, .299 ISO). From the left side, Alex Gordon (91 wRC+, .150 ISO) and Ryan O’Hearn (90 wRC+, .202 ISO) may be worth a look as well. Both are below $4K on DraftKings with the latter owning a 290 wRC+ (53.9 Hard%) over the last week with a price below $3K on FanDuel.

J.A. Happ continues to be limited to twice through the lineup, but has pitched well in Kansas City and against Boston over his last two outings, though he does keep allowing the HRs (15 in 12 starts). He has a 28 K% over the last month, but still a 4.99 FIP. .He has only issued as many walks as HRs for the season, but he and Edwin Jackson have the highest Z-O-Swing% on the board (41.7% & 42.3%). With the strikeouts, the HRs become a bit more bearable, but Happ is a two way pitcher tonight. He’s an arm players can utilize for around $8K against an offense with 80 wRC+ and 24 K% vs LHP. However, despite their 10.7 HR/FB against southpaws as well, they did flash some RH power last night. RHBs have a .321 wOBA (.320 xwOBA) against Happ since last season with just a 32.9 GB%, while the Blue Jays have four RHBs above a .200 ISO against LHP over the last calendar year. Lourdes Gurriel (192 wRC+, .290 ISO) has just been destroying them. Vladimir Guerrero (95 wRC+, .233 ISO) has just a .208 BABIP against southpaws, but a .401 xwOBA that’s 82 points above his actual mark. Randal Grichuk (136 wRC+, .252 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (86 wRC+, .202 ISO) might be additional bats of interest here. The Blue Jays are closer to the bottom of the board than the top at 4.13 implied runs, so not many players should be expected to be on them. The one concern here is that after Happ gets his five innings in, the Yankees will throw an elite bullpen into action. On the other side, Edwin Jackson has a 14.1 K%, 28.6 HR/FB, 35.4 Hard-Soft%, 90.8 Z-Contact%, 13.22 ERA, 5.22 SIERA, 10.49 DRA, .405 xwOBA, 91.4 mph aEV and 13.8% Barrels/BBE. More than enough said. Only the Rangers (facing David Hess at home) are expected to do more damage than the Yankees tonight.

Journeyman Edwin Jackson gets the start for the Blue Jays tonight. Over 14 innings so far in 2019, Jackson has a 9 ERA / 5.53 xFIP / 5.15 SIERA with a 7.8% K-BB. He also has an ugly .408 xwOBA allowed and an atrocious 17.6% barrel rate allowed. Jackson hasn’t put together a good season for a while now and is projected as roughly a 5.50 ERA pitcher by most projection systems going forward. Rockies’ hitters project to see a good amount of plate appearances vs. the Jays’ bullpen, who has had a decent 4.00 SIERA in 2019 but a 6th worst 1.50 HR/9 allowed. Of the Rockies’ projected order, David Dahl (.358 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Nolan Arenado (.353), Trevor Story (.351) and Ryan McMahon (.340) are the best options vs. RHP and are all hitting in the top part of the order. Raimel Tapia (.261) is projected to leadoff and is just $4.6k on Draftkings. Dahl is projected to hit 3rd and is just $4.7k. Ian Desmond (.336) has quietly had a decent season and is just $4.4k. All Rockies’ bats are more than fairly priced today considering their massive implied total of 7.64.

Edwin Jackson has somehow sustained a sub-.300 wOBA against batters from either side of the plate this season, though his xwOBA is within six points of .350 either way with a hard hit rate above 35%. Ji-Man Choi (156 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP this season) has been on fire with a 273 wRC+ and 70 Hard% over the last week. Despite the negative run environment and both teams below 4.5 implied runs, he has a chance to do some damage tonight. On the other side, players can't be sure what the Rays will throw at the A's, but Diego Castillo will start. He has held batters from either side below a .300 wOBA as well, though LHBs have a .350 xwOBA and 47.9 Hard%. Nick Martini (130 wRC+, .114 ISO) costs just $3.2K on DK out of the leadoff spot, while Jed Lowrie (139 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Matt Olson (122 wRC+, .249 ISO) will likely each get one shot at him as well.

Edwin Jackson has shown some dangerous signs of morphing into...well, Edwin Jackson recently. Over his last two starts, both at home, he’s allowed four HRs with five walks and just four strikeouts (44 BF). One of those starts was against these Astros with the two HRs the only runs he allowed. It's actually a slight park upgrade to the most negative run environment on the board, but xwOBA is having none of Jackson's actual numbers this year. It drags a sub-.300 wOBA for batters from both sides up over 60 points to above .350 for both sides. Alex Bregman (149 wRC+, 231 ISO vs RHP this season) has become the top bat in this lineup. Jose Altuve (154 wRC+, .144 ISO) is still doing it, but with less power. Tyler White (166 wRC+, .309 ISO) has been a small sample superstar. This is a lineup that's been hitting very well lately. They have a major league leading team 161 wRC+ over the last week. Carlos Correa is the only batter in the lineup with more than 10 PAs over the last week (George Springer excluded) below a 135 wRC+ over that span. Despite the environment, the Astros are top five with a 5.17 implied run line tonight.

Edwin Jackson has had strong results, but a below average strikeout rate and 4.72 SIERA for the Athletics. There's not a lot to like in a Texas lineup on the road with a 3.8 run line, but Shin-Soo Choo (139 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is certainly a strong play. The xwOBA for batters from either side of the plate against Jackson is more than 50 points above his actual mark this year. On the other hand, the A's have been on fire. They have a 26 Hard-Soft% at home, vs LHP and over the last seven days. Mike Minor may be the better pitcher here. His 19.7 K% is higher and his 4.28 SIERA is lower, but his 12% Barrels/BBE is by far the highest for the entire day. Though well behind the Brewers, the A's have the second highest run line on the afternoon slate at 4.7. RHBs have a .325 wOBA, but .362 xwOBA with just a 33.2 GB% against Minor this season. The A's have a cheap bat in the second spot: Ramon Laureano (237 wRC+, 75 Hard% last seven days). Stephen Piscotty (119 wRC+, .193 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is similarly priced, batting fifth. Khris Davis (148 wRC+, 309 ISO) has a 255 wRC+ with four HRs over teh last week.

At 5.48 implied runs, the Rangers are behind only their opponents tonight. While Edwin Jackson has allowed only 10 ERs over five starts with an impressive 85.8 mph aEV, the strikeout rate (18.9%) is below average and incredibly dangerous in this park, along with 8.9% Barrels/BBE and his .198 BABIP is bound to regress significantly. With less than 40% of contact on the ground either way, Jackson has exhibited a reverse split since last season (.364 wOBA to .323) backed up by Statcast xwOBAs less than five points removed to batters from either side. His career numbers only have LHBs eight points abouve RHBs. While Shin-soo Choo (140 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the clear overall top hitter in this lineup and Joey Gallo (116 wRC+, .304 ISO) is the upside guy, Adrian Beltre (100 wRC+, .149 ISO) is a value play, within $300 of $3K on either site. Rougned Odor (84 wRC+, .180 ISO) has a 218 wRC+ and 58.8 Hard% since the break and Elvis Andrus (98 wRC+, .138 ISO) is at a 200 wRC+ with a 66.7 K% for less than $4K. Robinson Chirnos (104 wRC+, .194 ISO) bats down in the order, but is certainly a viable catching option on a four game slate.

No active batter in the majors (10 PA min.) has a wRC+ that exceeds 300 over the last week. The top mark belongs to Corey Dickerson (285 wRC+, 40.9 Hard%, three HRs), while the highest hard hit rate belongs to teammate Lucas Duda (131 wRC+, 69.2 Hard%, three HRs) if we increase the PA limit to 15. They face Jakob Junis (89.1 mph aEV is tied for second highest on the slate). He's actually generated ground ball at a much higher rate against LHBs so far (46.5% to 29.3%), but with no other significant platoon split. Players looking at Tampa Bay bats tonight will have a decision to make, as Logan Morrison has been hot as well (176 wRC+, 31.6 Hard%, three HRs). Rhys Hoskins (279 wRC+, 45.8 Hard%, six HRs) leads the majors in HRs over the last week, along with having the second highest wRC+. If the weather cooperates in Philadelphia, which doesn't look likely at this point, he'll get to face the knuckleball (R.A. Dickey has a 15.1 K-BB% and 0.4 Hard-Soft% over his last 14 starts). Tommy La Stella (274 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, three HRs) has been seeing more opportunities. If he's so lucky tonight, he has a great matchup against Chad Kuhl (LHBs .367 wOBA, 37.9 GB% and 22.8 Hard-Soft% this season). Giancarlo Stanton (259 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, five HRs) deserves an honorable mention. He is scheduled to face Edwin Jackson (86.4 mph aEV, 31.4% 95+ mph EV), who has just a 36.4 GB% against RHBs, but with a 3.5 Hard-Soft%, but that game is also at the mercy of weather conditions.

Edwin Jackson has a 3.86 ERA, but a 4.79 SIERA, which is actually the lowest of his ERA estimators (5.18 xFIP, 5.88 FIP, 5.89 DRA). At first glance, a .262 BABIP seems primarily responsible, but he's actually surrendered 22 runs in 35 innings, but 31.8% of them (seven) have been unearned. His 10.7% Barrels/BBE is a slate high and players should probably consider attacking him thoroughly tonight. Except that his 4.4 Hard-Soft% isn’t terrible and his 10.7 K-BB% is not too far below league average, while his 10.3 SwStr% is above it. And he's facing the Padres (25.3 K% vs RHP) at Petco. Nobody is suggesting rostering Jackson (RHBs .377 wOBA, 34.2 Hard%/LHBs .340 wOBA, 31.6 hard% since last season), but this is a lukewarm spot with the Padres implied for 4.35 runs, towards the middle of the board. Cory Spangenberg (127 wRC+, .19O ISO vs RHP this season) has gone on a sudden power binge (287 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%), but is now the most expensive bat in the lineup. Wil Myers (99 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Pirela (132 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP) are the ones who have shown the most power vs RHPs this year. Both have a hard hit rate of at least half their batted balls over the last week. Manuel Margot (84 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP) and Yangervis Solarte (119 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP)...are in the lineup too. Players can pick and choose the necessary Padres to fill out their lineups tonight, but doesn't appear an optimal spot for offensive firepower, even with Edwin Jackson on the mound opposing them.