Erick Fedde Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Erick Fedde shut out the Giants through six innings last time out in San Franciscon and keeps the ball on round (51.3%), but his overall numbers are awful (2.8 K-BB%, 5.64 SIERA, 5.67 DRA, .371 xwOBA). He’s one of two starters on the slate above .400 xwOBA last 30 days and the other has thrown a total of six innings in the majors this year. The Reds are below average vs LHP (90 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB%), but this lineup looks a bit different since the deadline and has been crushing the ball over the last week (31.4 HR/FB, 35.5 Hard-Soft%). Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 xwOBA against Fedde over the last 12 months. Aside from Jesse Winker (145 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Eugenio Suarez (110 wRC+, .235 ISO), the Reds have a couple of red hot rookies in the middle of tonight’s projected lineup in Josh VanMeter (165 wRC+, .250 ISO, 62.2 Hard% vs LHP) and Aristedes Aquino has homered seven times in his first 34 plate appearances. With the majority of the board above five implied runs tonight, the Reds find themselves right in the middle at 5.25, but offer some affordable offense with upside.

The Padres are set to face Eric Fedde in Petco Park tonight in what appears to be a nice matchup. Even in pitcher-friendly Petco, the Padres still have a healthy 4.50 implied line with multiple bats priced lower than they should be. On the year Eric Fedde has a 2.55 ERA but owns a 5.23 xFIP, 5.34 SIERA, 3.9% K-BB and an 8.1% SwStr over 25 innings. He does induce groundballs at a rate of 52.8%, which has helped him put up a solid .307 xwOBA against. However, Fedde has an abysmal K rate and allows lots of baserunners, and the Nats’ bullpen (4.98 xFIP, 1.59 HR/9 on the year) will do him no favors once he is out of the game. Franmil Reyes (.394 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, $4.2k on DK), Eric Hosmer (.338, $4k), Manny Machado (.305, $3.8k) and Josh Naylor (.296, $3.8k) stand out as the best values in the lineup. Hunter Renfroe has been the Padres hottest hitter over the past 10 days with a .470 xwOBA, though will cost $5k on Draftkings. Fernando Tatis (.307 xwOBA vs. RHP this year) projects to leadoff and is always a threat for a steal, though he’s not necessarily a value at $4.9k.

Monday's 12 game board seems fairly deep in pitching value among the mid and lower price ranges. Looking for a DK SP2 to compliment a higher priced arm? Erick Fedde has struck out 26 of his last 41 batters and faces the Marlins (sub-85 wRC+ at home, vs RHP and last seven days) in a great park for just $5.3K on DraftKings. Andrew Suarez might be a league average arm by strikeouts and estimators, but faces the Padres (90 wRC+, 15.8 K-BB% vs LHP) for $7K or less. Hyun-Jin Ryu won't throw more than 90 pitches and isn't very cheap, but he's gotten through at least 5.2 innings in four of his last six starts and takes a 28.5 K% up against the Rockies (80 wRC+, 24.1 K% on the road) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Miles Mikolas is a low strikeout arm (17.2%) in a low strikeout spot (Braves 20.2 K% vs RHP), but he's a great contact manager (85.4 mph aEV) in a strong contact management spot (Braves 95 wRC+, 11.2 HR/FB vs RHP) at a reasonable cost of $7.3K on FanDuel. Only Zack Wheeler is averaging more innings per start. Kyle Hendricks has his strikeout rate just above 20% now with an 85.1 mph aEV. The Diamondbacks have an 81 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs RHP. Joe Musgrove has completed seven innings in eight of 18 starts and while results have been less spectacular lately, he does get the Royals (93 wRC+ vs RHP) at home without a DH.

Considering the rain out in New York leaves us with just two 7pm games and nine overall on the slate, the Phillies are the early game offense to own. Even at just 4.56 implied runs, their fourth highest on the board. Erick Fedde has allowed at least three runs in six of seven starts this year and in the one where he didn't, he only pitched one inning. In addition, the Washington bullpen has a FIP a full run worse than any other active team over the last 30 days. Despite a ground ball rate above 50%, batters from either side of the plate are above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Fedde this season. Each of the first six batters in the order for the Phillies is above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this season with only leadoff man Cesar Hernandez (103 wRC+, .117 ISO) below a .175 ISO. Rhys Hoskins (139 wRC+, .283 ISO) is tops in the lineup by both metrics. Carlos Santana (110 wRC+, .188 ISO) has been the hottest bat in the lineup with a 193 wRC+ over the last week. This lineup is moderately priced and should work well as a stack.

Erick Fedde is a prospect of some note, who has some upside, but has struggled a bit through his first seven major league starts both last year and this. Though he's kept the ball on the ground more than 50% of the time against batters from either side, it's right-handed hitters that have really handled him well. They have a .467 wOBA against him and while xwOBA is 56 points less, that's still .411 with a 38.3 Hard%. It's not a large sample size for sure, but this would seem an ideal spot for Rhys Hoskins (142 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in his cozy home park. Fedde hasn't been great against LHBs either in his short career (.344 wOBA, .334 xwOBA), but does have a 60.3 GB% against them.