Evan Gattis Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Power Matchup
The Astros are still fighting to clinch their division and they get a strong power matchup on the road against fly baller Marco Estrada in Toronto. Houston has a host of injury situations we'll have to monitor but provided a near full strength lineup the Stros are one of my favorite stacks of the night. Alex Bregman's price tag specifically pops out on DK ($4,500) and he's a strong pivot of the heaver owned Nolan Arenado.
Low Owned on the West Coast
I think there's a chance a team playing on the West Coast wins GPPs on Tuesday night as three of the six West Coast pitchers own the lowest SwStr%'s on the slate - Jurado (4.2%), Anderson (6.4%), and Leake (7.4%). The A's have the highest implied run total of the trio but the Astros have my favorite combo of upside and low ownership. There's a chance Jose Altuve will be activated before Tuesday's game which helps strengthen Houston's lineup and adds some power + speed upside.
A Great Leverage Play At Catcher
With James Paxton expected to garner plenty of ownership tonight (and rightfully so), I think Gattis makes for one of the best leverage plays in tournaments on the entire slate. Paxton obviously whiffs his fair share of righties, but the batted ball profile isn't all that encouraging when it does get put into play (43.6% flyballs, 35% hard contact). It certainly surprised me to see that Paxton has given up 14 dongs to righties this season. Gattis himself has posted a .250 ISO this season against LHP, while only striking out 14.4% of the time. I like his chances of taking Paxton deep at really low ownership.
Astros righties look to capitalize on Mike Minor's massive splits versus RHB this season
The Houston Astros head into Sunday's matchup with Mike Minor and the Texas Rangers looking to avoid a fourth consecutive game of scoring three runs or fewer and hope to salvage a win in this afternoon's series finale. On the plus side, the Astros draw an exploitable matchup against Minor, who possesses some pretty straightforward splits, allowing a 0.347 wOBA, 42.2% hard-hit percentage, and 46.9% fly ball rate to right-handed batters this season. These metrics are very dissimilar to his numbers versus left-handed bats, as Minor has actually been quite good against lefties by limiting them to a 0.284 wOBA and 33.3% FB%, all while posting an impressive 20.8% K-BB% and 3.18 xFIP on the year. This makes the two Astros lefties, Josh Reddick and Tony Kemp, easy players to avoid in all formats given the drastic dropoff in Minor's splits when sacrificing the platoon advantage. Unfortunately, Houston is currently down two of their more prolific right-handed hitters in Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, but their absence does possibly present some value in Tyler White (0.190 ISO, 0.358 xwOBA since 2017) as a tournament stack filler, despite relatively uninspiring statistics thus far in his 26 career plate appearances versus left-handed pitching. This also leaves Alex Bregman (0.288 ISO, 0.4441 xwOBA vs LHP since 2017) and George Springer (0.236 ISO, 0.400 xwOBA vs LHP since 2017) as the two clear top targets from this Astros offense, and although Springer has struggled of late, he did belt a home run in Saturday's loss, which can hopefully springboard him into more consistent success at the plate. Evan Gattis (0.248 ISO vs LHP since 2017) always has some extra pop in his bat when squaring off with a homer-prone southpaw, and he carries some additional appeal on DraftKings where he has catcher eligibility, though he does remain extremely cheap on FanDuel as well. As for Yulieski Gurriel, he continues to underwhelm from a statistical perspective, but he does have the definitive batting position advantage over a higher upside bat like J.D. Davis (61.9% HH%, 0.216 ISO, 0.489 xwOBA), who has flashed some upside in his 43 career plate appearances versus left-handed pitching, making him an intriguing one-off option or final piece of an Astros stack in large-field tournament formats.
Platoon Power
Gattis is one of the top catching options on Sunday's slate and he is most notably priced extremely low on FanDuel where he's $2,500. Altuve's absence from the Astros lineup has led to Gattis hitting fifth for the last couple of days and I would expect a similar spot in the order for him on Sunday. Gattis has shown great power (.231 ISO) over the course of his career when he has the platoon advantage and he's simply too talented of a hitter to be priced at $2,500. Gattis is more expensive on DraftKings but is still in play in all formats due to the weak catcher position.
Favorite stack of the day
The Astros are far and away my favorite stack of the day! Coors is too expensive and Houston is in just as good a spot to go off as the A's or Rockies.. Maybe better. Colorado and Oaklands bullpens are improving where the Rangers are still awful and Ariel Jurado starting just makes me feel better against a disciplined power offense like the Astros. I like everyone 1 through 9 in this spot so if you are making multiple stacks I wouldn't lesve one player out. The priorities should be the usual suspects, Springer, Bregman, Altuve, Gattis, Reddick but like I said, I will have plenty of variations of this stack as I expect the Astros to be the highest scoring team of the night.
Absence offers cheaper exposure to top lineup against highest xwOBA, lowest K% on the board.
Each of the top four implied run lines play in positive run environments tonight. Then there's the Astros running fifth (5.33 runs) in the most negative run environment in baseball because they are facing Yovani Gallardo (13 K%, 5.40 SIERA, .387 xwOBA). Batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA against him since last year with no split in his xwOBA at .365. Jose Altuve removes a big bat from this lineup, but it also leaves Alex Bregman (133 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and George Springer (101 wRC+, .166 ISO) as the only really expensive ones. No other bat in the lineup is above $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel. However, Evan Gattis (92 wRC+, .207 ISO) is also the only other bat above a .190 ISO against RHP. This is a competent lineup, but not a juggernaut in a tough park without Altuve and Correa.
A Top Stack in a Great Spot
The Astros are in a great spot tonight and can be considered as potentially the top offense on the board. They face a struggling veteran in Yovani Gallardo, who has not had much success at the MLB level for several seasons now. Alex Bregman has been tearing the cover off the ball lately and is the top nightly bat from this squad. He owns an OPS well over 1.000 since the first of June to go along with 16 home runs in that span. Evan Gattis adds value on sites where you need a catcher. If you need value, I don't even hate the idea of targeting a Josh Reddick or Marwin Gonzalez type. This whole offense is in play tonight.
#StackStros
You may have to do some ugly things at SP to make it work but #StackStros in Coors versus a LHP - this is what dreams are made of. Anderson has been good this year (3.72 ERA) but has perhaps been running a little pure - he owns a 4.09 SIERA and has a slightly low BABIP (.273) to pair with an inflated strand rate (76.3 LOB%). He's been doing a good job generating soft contact but could use some help keeping the ball on the ground (38.2 GB%) which isn't an ideal profile for a pitcher who calls Coors home. High price tags combined with a "meh" matchup could help lead to decent ownership numbers on the Astros.
High priced offense in a tough run environment could be a fade tonight
Reynaldo Lopez has a .261 BABIP and 7.6 HR/FB behind his 3.68 ERA. His 5.11 SIERA is much higher. The Astros have a 5.06 implied run line that's fourth best on the board despite the most negative run environment. All eight batters in the lineup with more than 30 PAs against RHP over the last calendar year have at least a 110 wRC+. The problem is that only Evan Gattis (112 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Alex Bregman (136 wRC+, .207 ISO) are above a .175 ISO, which probably means they work better as a stack...a high priced stack, which may give players issuse with lineup construction tonight. Another factor is that Lopez has been somewhat competent against RHBs. His .294 wOBA against them since last year drives up to a .323 xwOBA, but even that's around league average with a 28.8 Hard%. The Astros could very well trounce Lopez, but there would be some merit towards fading, though those paying up for pitching may not even have a choice.