| Date | Opp | DKSAL | FDSAL | DKFPTS | FDFPTS | k | ip | ab | sho | w | hra | l | er | cg | ha | 3ba | bba | sba | ibba | whip | hbp | qstart | 1ba | k/9 | 2ba |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-26 | vs. OAK | -- | -- | 6.6 | 16 | 3 | 5.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.69 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5.07 | 0 |
| 2019-09-20 | @ BAL | -- | -- | 1.25 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5.4 | 1 |
| 2019-09-14 | vs. CWS | -- | -- | 18.15 | 34 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5.14 | 2 |
| 2019-09-08 | @ HOU | -- | -- | -13.5 | -12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.5 | 6 |
| 2019-09-03 | @ CHC | -- | -- | 9.15 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1 |
| 2019-08-29 | @ TEX | -- | -- | 7.65 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5.4 | 2 |
| 2019-08-24 | vs. TOR | -- | -- | 12.55 | 23 | 4 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.36 | 1 |
| 2019-05-11 | @ BOS | -- | -- | -8.15 | -5 | 3 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3.86 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11.59 | 0 |
| 2019-05-06 | @ NYY | -- | -- | -2.15 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3.6 | 2 |
| 2019-04-30 | vs. CHC | -- | -- | 15.5 | 30 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| 2019-04-24 | @ SD | -- | -- | 27.35 | 46 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10.29 | 1 |
| 2019-04-18 | @ LAA | -- | -- | 5.5 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4.5 | 3 |
| 2019-04-13 | vs. HOU | -- | -- | 12.7 | 28 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.17 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7.5 | 1 |
| 2019-04-08 | @ KC | -- | -- | -2.15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| 2019-04-01 | vs. LAA | -- | -- | 17.2 | 31 | 4 | 5.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.31 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6.75 | 1 |
Felix Hernandez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .360 wOBA & xwOBA against Felix Hernandez
The A’s and are about a quarter of a run behind the Astros tonight (5.8 to 5.56) atop the board tonight, but with the Astros having already announced that they’re resting some of their top bats tonight and Oakland still playing for their post-season life in an appointment with Felix Hernandez, the green and gold may be the better way to go tonight. Hernandez has the highest aEV on the board (91.3 mph) and his 9.6% Barrels/BBE is second worst as he sits on a 6.51 ERA, 6.67 DRA, 5.95 FIP and .364 xwOBA. There’s nothing positive to be found in his body of work this year. In fact, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season. That works fine for the A’s, who generally run out a predominantly right-handed lineup with Matt Olson (150 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP) being the top half of the lineup left-handed exception. Marcus Semien (137 wRC+, .244 ISO), Ramon Laureano (131 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Matt Chapman (124 wRC+, .246 ISO) have handled same-handed pitching nearly equally well. Seth Brown (170 wRC+, .226 ISO) could find himself in the middle of this lineup and costs less than $4K on DraftKings.
Boston Bats Looking Good Again Today
Boston went off for 14 runs in a good spot yesterday and now get an equally juicy matchup with Felix Hernandez. Since 2018, Hernandez has a 5.14 ERA / 4.40 xFIP and a 1.7 HR/9. This year, Felix has cut his walk rate in half compared to 2018, but has seen his hard contact%, aEV and barrel/BBE all increase as a result. Boston has been the hottest offense in the league over the last 10 days with a .375 xwOBA. Mookie Betts (177 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018), Michael Chavis (163 wRC+, 59 PA), J.D. Martinez (157 wRC+), Andrew Benintendi (134 wRC+), Xander Bogaerts (127 wRC+), Mitch Moreland (114 wRC+) and Rafael Devers (110 wRC+) are all great options. Jackie Bradley (92 wRC+) is just $2.8k and by far the cheapest Red Sox hitter batting 8th. Rafael Devers has been the hottest hitter with a .476 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Every Red Sox hitter has an xwOBA > .350 over the past 10 days besides Xander Bogaerts. Boston currently has a 6.13 implied line vs. Felix and the Mariners in Fenway Saturday afternoon.
Lots of balls in play and terrible defense
Felix Hernandez has a reasonable 4.38 ERA supported by a 4.12 SIERA through his first 12 innings of 2019. Maybe you’re thinking that even a 17.5 K% might not kill you on this slate for less than $8K. He’s even been pretty efficient with just one walk and a 51.2 GB%. This would seem a reasonable line of thought, but be careful of some concerning underlying numbers. Hernandez is the board worst in both SwStr (5.6%) and Z-Contact (95.7%) rates, while facing an offense that has struck out in just 15.5% of plate appearances vs RHP this year and just 15.8% overall over the last seven days. Lots of balls in play bring additional problems besides lack of upside. Hernandez has an unimpressive 89.8 mph aEV and the Seattle defense owns a major league worst -27 DRS. Only one other team is worse than -20. So, if you’re thinking about Felix tonight, you might want to think again. And we didn’t even make the obligatory mention of Mike Trout’s mastery of him. Strongly consider the top half of the home offense in this one instead. Hopefully, that includes Justin Bour (113 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Kole Calhoun (83 wRC+, .199 ISO), along with Trout, though Hernandez has shown no discernable platoon split over the last calendar year (RHBs .345 wOBA, LHBs .347).
'Stros in Good Spot vs. King Felix
The Astros face Felix Hernandez in Seattle Saturday night and have an implied total of 4.99, which feels low given the matchup. Felix hasn’t shown any signs of halting his decline in 2019, which has seem him post an ugly .356 xwOBA against and 5.10 ERA since 2017. Felix has been especially bad vs. LHB with a .378 xwOBA allowed since 2017 compared to .339 vs. RHB. Michael Brantley (.379 xwOBA vs. RHP in 2018), Jose Altuve (.347), George Springer (.336), Carlos Correa (.301) and Yuli Gurriel (.283) should make up the top 5 of the order. All will be priced in the mid $4k range on Draftkings besides Gurriel ($3.6k. Josh Reddick (.298) figures to be the best value play at just $3.4k. Carlos Correa had a rough 2018 but seems to have regained form with a .375 xwOBA to start 2019 and can be had with a slight discount across the industry. Jose Altuve has 5 home runs in his last 4 games and has an xwOBA of .397 in 2019.
Cheap, league average bat in a nice spot
Nobody is going to confuse the Kansas City offense with Murderer’s Row and Felix Hernandez even pitched well first time out (1 ER), but he did only have a 4.4 SwStr%. The Royals are on the upper half of the board with 4.94 implied runs and perhaps a bit of value in the top half of their lineup, considering LHBs have a .352 wOBA against Hernandez over the last calendar year. While Adalberto Mondesi (117 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP last 365 days) is the flashy new toy, he’s become a bit expensive. Ryan O’Hearn (200 wRC+, .381 ISO) has fewer believers and costs nearly $1K less. And don’t look now, but Alex Gordon is batting third and has been a league average hitter against RHP over the last year (106 wRC+, .158 ISO) and costs just $3.7K on DraftKings. In fact, his .347 xwOBA against RHP over that span trails only O’Hearn (.389) in this lineup and suggests he may have been capable of even slightly more.
It's A Price/Matchup Play
I've talked a lot this season about picking on Felix Hernandez, and he continues to struggle with left-handed hitters. With that said, it's hard to overlook the price and the matchup for him tonight. The Padres don't have a lot of left-handed power bats to take advantage of Hernandez's weakness this season. He has a .330 wOBA with a .134 ISO and a 53.5% groundball rate against right-handed hitters. He doesn't have a ton of strikeout stuff anymore, but the Padres projected starters have a 24.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. He's not a safe play by any means, but like I said, it's hard to overlook this price on a slate where we have a ton of hitting options to pay up for.
A Massive Favorite SP2 at a Good Value
The largest favorite on the board tonight isn't Verlander or Kershaw, but rather Felix Hernandez pitching in his home park against the lowly White Sox. Granted, that is much more a testament to both the White Sox lack of hitting (Wade Leblanc struck out 10 last night) and the excellent matchup the Mariners bats have against Dylan Covey than it is based on Hernandez's skill set, but he still shapes up to be a nice SP2 value on a slate where you are going to want to spend up on some bats. Hernandez has gone at least 5 innings in 9 of his last 10 starts, and his strike out floor is higher than usual as the White Sox possess the second-highest team K% on the slate. If you are looking for an affordable SP2 who provides a relatively safe floor and is likely to pick up the W, you could do a lot worse than King Felix tonight at the pitcher friendly Safeco Field.
Trust King Felix vs a Struggling Offense
Rostering Felix Hernandez has rarely felt like a safe option this season, but tonight he provides a solid floor in a matchup against the scuffling Royals. In their last 9 games the Royals have only managed 19 runs, which helps explain why tonight they sit at one of the lowest Vegas-implied team totals on the board. The Mariners are also the largest team-favorite on the board with their offense expected to score and score often against a struggling Jason Hammel, which means Felix is likely to come away with the win as well. It is worth noting that his upside may be a bit capped due to the Royals' having the second lowest team K% on the slate at only 19.1%, but on two SP sites Felix is a safe option to pair with Sale that has a high-floor and still allows you to fit some solid bats.
Cheap Baltimore bats could have some value against a Felix Hernandez coming off of two strong starts
Felix Hernandez is coming off 12 innings of four run ball (just two earned) against the Yankees and Red Sox over his last two starts, striking out 12 of 49 batters faced with a 51.4 GB%. He did have a hard hit rate above 60% against the Yankees though. Yet, the Orioles still have a 4.54 implied run line that's less than a half run off the top spot on the board. There are just three batters in the lineup above an 82 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year, but what they do offer is a modicum of affordability, which players who are paying up for Verlander tonight are looking for. While LHBs have a .350 wOBA (.396 xwOBA) against Felix since last season, RHBs are within four points of a .330 wOBA and xwOBA as well. Only Manny Machado (130 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mark Trumbo (82 wRC+, .190 ISO) are above $4K on DraftKings/$3K on FanDuel. Collby Rasmus (51 wRC+, .121 ISO) costs just $2.3K on FanDuel in the leadoff spot. There are not a lot to love in the Baltimore lineup, but there may be some value.
A negative run environment likely the only thing keeping the Red Sox below 4.5 implied runs tonight
Felix Hernandez has allowed fewer than three runs in just three of his last 13 starts and it's unlikely to get any easier against the Red Sox (119 wRC+, 19 K% vs RHP). The negative run environment pushes Boston down to a 4.45 implied run line. LHBs have .357 wOBA and .399 xwOBA against Felix since last season. RHBs are at .323 and .332. As usual, the most attractive exposure would be to the top half of the lineup, if affordable: Mookie Betts (128 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Andrew Benintendi (138 wRC+, .212 ISO), J.D Martinez (169 wRC+, .371 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (107w RC+, .235 ISO).