Freddy Peralta Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

One of the pitchers who project as better values than Gerrit Cole on FanDuel aren’t pitchers you’d consider using on a single pitcher site (Mike Minor in Washington), but the other two are at least a little bit interesting. Bailey Falter struck out a season high eight Pirates when he last faced this team two starts back and followed it up with his second Quality Start in a row and of the season against the Mets. A 20.7 K% is good enough, when paired with a 6.7 BB%. Problematically in this park, only 26.9% of his contact has been on the ground, leading to 9.7% Barrels/BBE with 10 of his 13 barrels leaving the yard (14.9 HR/FB). Despite the 14.0 K-BB% and due to the low ground ball rate, a 4.30 SIERA is the only estimator below his 4.40 ERA, though he may be able to make it work against this offense again (81 wRC+, 26.2 K% vs LHP). Costing less than $7K on either site and $500 less on FanDuel, the top projected FD value (top five on DK) may have to deal with some extremely hitter friendly weather in Philly. Check back on Weather Edge later if wishing to roster him in this premium matchup.

Freddy Peralta is the second best projected arm and third best projected value on both sites. Costing less than $9K against the Cubs (99 wRC+, 23.0 K% vs RHP) at home, this should be a no brainer. However, there are some potential issues here. Peralta worked through 25 batters and 95 pitches last time out and should no longer have any limitations, but has struck out just 15 of 77 batters since returning from the IL with nine walks. While he does have an 11.9 SwStr% over this span, even that’s well below his normal standard. On a positive note, he’s allowed just five barrels (3.3%) all season with just a 42.4 GB%. That may not be sustainable, but it’s keeping his ERA in check while he figures out why he can’t put batters away right now. His 4.08 ERA is above estimators ranging from a 3.09 FIP to a 3.64 SIERA/xFIP, but that’s all based on his season 26.9 K%. If you, like projections believe this is a very temporary phase, then he’s one of the top options on the board. One additional thing to beware of, check on the roof status in Milwaukee, as it’s a much more hitter friendly run environment when it’s open.

Fangraphs rates Cade Cavalli as the second best prospect in the Washington system and the 20th best in the league with a 55 Future Value grade. The highly regarded 24 year-old rookie has a 25.9 K%, but 9.7 BB% in 97 AAA innings this year. He’s struck out 20 of his last 46 batters with five walks. Even if he’s not blowing AAA out of the water, you can understand why he projects as tonight’s top DraftKings value for $5K ($7.3K and the sixth best projected FanDuel value) against the Reds, who are so banged up that their 83 wRC+ and 24.2 K% vs RHP may actually be their ceiling at this point.

As far as additional SP2 types go, we probably have to mention Glenn Otto only because he is facing the Tigers (69 wRC+, 25.1 K%, 7.2 HR/FB vs RHP) for $6.2K on DK. With nine walks and just two strikeouts over his last 49 batters faced, he is now down to a 4.5 K-BB%, while allowing 9.3% Barrels/BBE though. His 4.66 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators. What happens when the resistible force meets the movable object?

An 11 game Monday night slate is a bit chaotic. We may see some northeast weather issues, though Kevin’s forecast is not yet available. One of those games includes the only pitcher to reach $10K on FanDuel, who may be unrosterable despite the weather. Master magician Miles Mikolas has driven a 7.5 SwStr% to a 1.49 ERA. Of course, estimators are well above those results (.244 BABIP, 89.3 LOB%), but he’s certainly not hurting himself in any other areas (4.8 BB%, 48.8 GB%, 86.5 mph EV, 4% Barrels/BBE) and pitch-to-contact may actually work when you have one of the great defenses in the league behind that contact profile. His worst estimator is a 3.78 SIERA. Citi Field is an extremely pitcher friendly park and that’s certainly been the case in night games so far this season with cooler weather, the new baseball and the humidor, but the Mets have a board low 18.7 K% vs RHP this year. Mikolas just the 10th best projected pitcher on FanDuel tonight (PlateIQ) and outside the top 10 on DraftKings.

Freddy Peralta and Tony Gonsolin exceed $10K on DraftKings, but cost less on FanDuel, the latter much less so ($8.7K). After a bit of a slow start, Peralta has struck out 22 of his last 67 batters to his the 30% strikeout rate mark (30.6%). Just three walks over the same span drop his walk rate down to single digits (8.9%). He’s oddly allowed nearly half his contact (47.2%) at a 95 mph EV or higher, yet has also allowed just 4.2% Barrels/BBE with an 87.5 mph EV. A .338 BABIP and 66.5 LOB% have his ERA (4.40) at least a run above all estimators, closest to his 3.40 xERA. He gets the Braves (98 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP) in a neutral park, which makes it a neutral matchup with upside and also makes him one of tonight’s top two projected arms, who find themselves way ahead of the rest of the pack.

While the Dodgers were hoping for Gonsolin’s walk rate to drop significantly, it’s actually his strikeout rate that has plummeted through six starts (21.1%) to give him a single digit K-BB (9.2%). A 48.6 GB% is the highest he’s ever had at any professional level of play and absolutely no complaints about a contact profile (87.3 mph EV, 1.4% Barrels/BBE) that produces a 2.49 xERA that’s more than a run above his actual ERA, but nearly a run below any other estimator (3.46 FIP). The Diamondbacks offer plenty of upside (86 wRC+, 25.3 K% vs RHP), but Gonsolin is projected outside the top seven in terms of raw point total on either site.

No other remaining confirmed pitcher exceeds $9K on either site, but Lucas Giolito is probably worth a quick mention, just in case he comes off the COVID IL to make tonight’s start. He’s struck out 35.7% over five starts, which, even with a poor contact profile (32.2 GB%, 11.9% Barrels/BBE, 19.2 HR/FB), non-FIP estimators are all below three and a half. He would be in a strong spot in Kansas City in terms of run prevention (82 wRC+), though they own just a 19.8 K% vs RHP this year. Giolito does not yet own a projection as Chicago’s pitching plans are currently up in the air.

We kick off the last four game slate of the MLB season in the second most positive run environment on the board in Atlanta, but the most hitter friendly umpire in Alfonso Marquez. The series between the Brewers and Braves is tied at one apiece. Freddy Peralta has struck out one-third of the batters he’s faced this year (33.6%), but almost as impressively, cut his walk rate down to 6.5% over his last 11 starts (9.7% season), though he did struggle a bit with a .301 BABIP and 70.2 LOB% over that span that left him with a 3.86 ERA that was a bit higher than estimators. His season ERA (2.81) matches his 2.72 xERA (86.6 mph EV, 6% Barrels/BBE) and 2.94 DRA with his xFIP a bit higher (3.66). Atlanta is a park downgrade for Peralta and, of course, in a pivotal game three in a tied series, Crag Counsel probably won’t allow him to get into too much trouble, but considering the available pitchers on this slate, that certainly does nothing to preclude him today, especially on DraftKings. The Braves had a 99 wRC+ at home, 100 wRC+ (16.3 HR/FB) vs RHP. The actual lineup includes four batters above a 24.5 K% vs RHP. With a top three price tag on either site, we can probably consider Peralta the second best pitcher on the slate.

Batters from either side of the plate had a wOBA and xwOBA between .244 and .261 against Peralta this season, while the Braves have an implied run line of exactly four, placing them on the lower half of the board. Freddie Freeman (148 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP) and Austin Riley (146 wRC+, .248 ISO) are the most attractive batters here. Eddie Rosario (107 wRC+, .211 ISO) costs less than $3K on either site.

In three of Ian Anderson’s last six starts, he struck out two or fewer, but seven or more in the other three. The bigger concern this year has been a 9.9 BB%, that, along with a league average strikeout rate (23.2%), generates estimators ranging from a 3.80 DRA to a 4.38 SIERA, all above his 3.58 ERA (79.1 LOB%). The Brewers had a 95 wRC+ on the road, 92 wRC+ vs RHP. However, today’s actual lineup includes just two batters above a 22.3 K% vs RHP this year and the offense did improve later in the season. That said, considering today’s board, Anderson may be the ideal SP2 on DraftKings for just $7.1K.

While Anderson had nearly a 30 point reverse split this year (.279 and .306 wOBA), Statcast narrows that to three points (.318 and .315 xwOBA). Rowdy Tellez (86 wRC+) is the only batter in the lineup below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Willy Adames (124 wRC+, .221 ISO) is the top Milwaukee bat. Kolten Wong (108 wRC+, .182 ISO) costs just $2.8K on FanDuel. Avisail Garcia (105 wRC+, .221 ISO) even less. The Brewers also have a team total of exactly four runs.

Trevor Bauer is the only player to reach $10K on both sites tonight and is actually within $100 of $11K on either FanDuel or DraftKings without any other pitcher within $1K of his price range on FD. Freddy Peralta and Lucas Giolito both exceed $10K on DK, reaching $9.5K on FD. Lastly, Zack Greinke costs $9.8K on DraftKings, but is $1.1K cheaper on FanDuel. Those are your high end pitchers on a very difficult Monday board. Difficult because it’s littered with small samples (seven pitcher with three starts or less), injury returnees (Maeda, Duffy) and weather concerns, both in the form of potential offensive boosts (Dodger Stadium, St Louis, Cleveland, Yankee Stadium) or rain concerns (Twins/White Sox). What’s a well-informed daily fantasy player to do?

There may not be much that separates the big three from the top overall start on the board tonight and that probably makes Bauer the worst value of the three. He is still handling a heavy workload. He’s gone three full times through the lineup in four straight starts and even struck out 10 Padres last time out. His 27.7 K% over the last month is still fine, if no longer elite. He’s also allowed three home runs in a start twice over the last month too and now has offered up 17 long balls on the season (15.2 HR/FB, 9.8% Barrels/BBE). Oddly, his 3.00 xERA is now the best of his estimators, which range up to a 3.94 FIP. Dodger Stadium does get one of those aforementioned weather boosts according to Weather Edge currently (though things could change) and the Giants have a 112 wRC+ with a 15.7 HR/FB vs RHP. While they also have a 25.9 K% vs RHP, only one of the projected eight exceeds a 25 K% against RHP since last season, according to PlateIQ.

Giolito’s 35.2 K% and 17 SwStr% over the last month leads the slate. However, despite just an 86.8 mph EV over that span, he’s still allowed eight home runs because just a quarter of his contact (25.4%) has been on the ground. While all non-FIP estimators (18.1 HR/FB) this year are below his 3.80 ERA, none are by more than half a run though. The Twins have a 104 wRC+ and 15.5 HR/FB vs RHP. Three of nine projected exceed a 26 K% vs RHP since 2020, but five are below 20%. While Giolito does not pitch in a park that gets an offensive weather boost, he does pitch in the one that carries the highest risk of interruption due to rain. Should the forecast improve, he and Peralta are fairly close in cost and value, at least on DK.

Peralta owns a board high 36.4 K%. The only thing stopping him is occasional control issues (10.5 BB%) running up his pitch count. He’s exceeded six innings just one of the seven times he’s walked at least three. He’s exceeded five innings in just two of those efforts. However, he’s also gone eight straight starts without allowing more than two runs with just seven in total over that span. Estimators run from a 2.49 xERA to a 3.37 xFIP. The Cubs have a 91 wRC+ and 26.5 K% vs RHP, while the comfort of the dome gives Peralta a safe, neutral run environment. He’s almost certainly the best value on FanDuel at the lowest price of the three ($9.5K). With a strikeout rate down to 13.5% (8.9 SwStr%) over his last five starts and just 17.9% on the year (also 8.9 SwStr%), Zack Greinke is now incredibly reliant on excellent control (5.1%), solid contact management (7.2% Barrels/BBE, 87.7 mph EV) and an exceptional defense/positioning (21 Runs Prevented) for his production. Should any of these falter, he’d enter below average territory. He also gets the safety of a dome in Houston against a poor offense (O’s 81 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP), but is a very difficult to endorse at a high cost at this point.