Gabriel Ynoa Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The O’s and Jays have slugged their way to 36 runs over the last two nights and why stop now. Gabriel Ynoa of the Cubs has just a 13.4 K% with an ERA and estimators all above five. His 89.9 mph aEV is third worst on the board. The Toronto lineup is thinning out with injuries up top, but they still offer nine projected batters above a .175 ISO vs RHP this year. Those who add a wRC+ above 100 include Cavan Biggio (121 wRC+, .229 ISO), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (120 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Reese McGuire (154 wRC+, .264 ISO), who could be the real value here below $4K on DraftKings. Billy McKinney (81 wRC+, .200 ISO) is even cheaper and has a 219 wRC+ over the last week. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Ynoa and Toronto is fifth on the board with a 5.77 implied run line.

On the other side of this affair, Jacob Waguespack allowed three runs over five innings to the Yankees last time out and that was his best start in a month. His numbers don’t stand out as poorly as Ynoa’s, but he has an ERA and FIP above seven over the last month with all estimators above five for the season behind a 9.9 K-BB% and .348 xwOBA. The Orioles have a lower implied run line, but still a respectable 4.73, but Waguespack has a substantial reverse split with RHBs over 65 points higher by wOBA (.366) and xwOBA (.377). Trey Mancini (120 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP) and Austin Hays (256 wRC+, .485 ISO) are batters of interest here. The latter with a very small sample, but still a .391 xwOBA that’s best among projected batters in this lineup vs RHP.

Gabriel Ynoa carries the lowest strikeout rate (13.9%) and highest rate of Barrels/BBE (9.7%) on the board tonight into his start against the Blue Jays. He’s allowed 25 HRs in just 100.1 IP, while batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA and .200 ISO. The Blue Jays have an implied run line of 5.51 that’s either third or fourth highest on the board depending on whether or not the Yankees are included. Each of the first eight batters in the Toronto lineup exceed a .180 ISO vs RHP this year. In fact, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (123 wRC+, .184 ISO) is the only one below a .200 ISO. Bo Bichette (129 wRC+, .250 ISO) and Cavan Biggio (118 wRC+, .228 ISO). Reese McGuire (179 wRC+, .295 ISO) is an affordable catcher further down the lineup.

Gabriel Ynoa has 10 Ks to six walks with three HRs over his three starts (15 IP). On the season, including relief appearances, he has a 17.6 HR/FB with a 50.5 GB% and contact allowed slightly worse than average (89.3 mph aEV, 7.7% Barrels/BBE). None of this is too bad with a .323 xwOBA and 4.48 SIERA that really aren’t too much worse than league average. One might even say he’s in a strong spot tonight, considering Toronto’s 76 wRC+ and 25.2 K% vs RHP this year. However, conditions are lining up to make this a potentially superior offensive spot tonight. The wind is blowing out to center in this game, which may mean a HR boost, if not necessarily a significant run boost and giving away a premium subscription secret, there’s an extremely hitter friendly umpire behind the plate in this one. Ynoa has faced 72 batters from either side of the plate this year with RHBs having the higher .392 wOBA and .212 ISO against him. Not a large sample, but enough to make Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (117 wRC+, 193 ISO vs RHP), Lourdes Gurriel (105 wRC+, .181 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and either Justin Smoak (149 wRC+, .275 ISO) or Rowdy Tellez (111 wRC+, .245 ISO) at first base bats of interest tonight for a Toronto lineup that’s just outside the top five at 4.75 implied runs.

Between pitchers returning from the disabled list, rookie starters and rotations generally battling late season attrition, Friday's slate is going to be a difficult one to navigate and it doesn't necessarily help that the two teams playing at Coors are the Padres and...well...the Rockies, both facing pronounced ground ball pitchers with league average strikeout potential. That's not to say it's not going to be profitable. In fact, with the influx of returning and new daily fantasy football players, who may dabble with their winnings or attempt to make up for losses, the last few weeks of the baseball season can be one of the most profitable times of year for the astute MLB player. Eight of 28 teams are projected above five runs by Vegas, the Rockies (6.64), nearly a full run ahead of the Yankees (5.72), who are second best by over one-third of a run themselves. Four more teams have an implied run line above 4.8 runs. Clayton Richard has a 20.3 K% (9.4 SwStr%) over his last nine starts with a 63.5 GB%, but 37.2 Hard%. He has struck out 22 of 58 LHBs without a walk and 61.8 GB%, so even though Charlie Blackmon hits LHP extremely well (130 wRC+, .223 ISO this year), perhaps he's not entirely worth paying up for tonight. RHBs have a .335 wOBA, 6 HRs, 6.2 K-BB%, 63.9 GB% and 37.9% Hard. Again, the ground ball rate is not ideal, but the rest of it can be worked with at Coors. Nolan Arenado (222 wRC+, .444 ISO, 37 Hard%, 47.1 FB%) is likely at the top of everyone's wish list for good reason tonight. Trevor Story's success against LHP (174 wRC+, .416 ISO, 51.4 Hard%, 48.6 FB%) perhaps not as well publicized considering his overall struggles and he also left yesterday's game with a hamstring injury. DJ LeMahieu (140 wRC+, .189 ISO vs LHP) is the other top bat in this lineup. The Yankees are facing one of tonight's rookies, Gabriel Ynoa, who was the seventh ranked prospect with just a 40 FV grade by Fangraphs in a poor Baltimore system prior to the season. He had just a 15.3 K% in 21 AAA starts this season, though he doesn’t walk many. He did not fare well in a start against Cleveland last week, but who has recently. He's faced more than 80, but fewer than 100 batters from each side in his short career. The pertinent stats are league average peripherals against either side, but a .366 wOBA vs LHBs. However, his hard hit rate is nearly 10 points higher against RHBs (39.7%) with a four point lower ground ball rate (38.1%). It's the Aaron Judge (165 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP) and Gary Sanchez (133 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP) show again with Brett Gardner (121 wRC+, .193 ISO vs RHP) looking strong out of the leadoff spot as well.

Gabriel Ynoa has been pitching out of the bullpen for the most part but has recently been pressed into starting duty. He had mediocre numbers at the AAA level this year that included a 3.97 ERA, a 4.87 FIP, and a very telling 11.9% strikeout rate. That’s right, his strikeout rate was 11.9% in the minor leagues so Don’t be fooled by his 25.0% strikeout rate in ten innings of major league duty. We can definitely fire up some Philadelphia bats in this spot, with significant value available on DraftKings. The prices of Roman Quinn, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco (.158 ISO vs RHP), and Ryan Howard (.272 ISO vs RHP) are puzzling to say the least. Odubel Herrera (125 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .168 ISO vs RHP) is also in play but is probably the most accurately priced of the Phillies hitters. They are a cheap stack that would also allow you to pay up for pitching, though that may not be ideal given the lack of expensive pitchers tonight.