Guillermo Heredia Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Sean Manaea is the top pitcher on the board. He's the highest priced, has the highest strikeout rate (at just 23.6%) and the lowest xwOBA (.285). His ERA still has a ton of regression ahead (.148 BABIP, 98.2 LOB%), but suddenly he's an iron man, going at least seven innings in five of six starts, once against Seattle, though it tied his lowest strikeout total for the season (four). The only reason he may not be the highest owned arm tonight is a price tag least $1.5K above everyone else, but he'll be extremely popular. He's had some issues with right-handed batters in the past (.347 wOBA last year), but even that's not been an issue this season (.183 wOBA, 15.9 K-BB%), though they still have a hard hit rate above 40%. If playing multiple lineups, a right-handed hedge stack against him may win a GPP if it goes off and the Mariners do have some potency with all of their right-handed bats above a 115 wRC+ against LHP and just Jean Segura and Guillermo Heredia below a .200 ISO. But for cash games Manaea's certainly the man tonight.

No single player on the slate tonight has a wRC+ above .300 over the last week. In fact, the hottest bat on the slate (10 PA min.) belongs to Jose Altuve (256 wRC+, 31.8 Hard%, no HRs). While RHBs have just .304 wOBA against Alex Cobb since last year, that comes with a 36.1 Hard%. Altuve is a high cost, nearly matchup proof bat at this point. Looking for something cheaper leads you to Guillermo Heredia (255 wRC+, 30.8 Hard%, one HR) who should be in the lineup, perhaps even at the top, in Texas against Cole Hamels (RHBs .315 wOBA, 33.9 Hard% since last season). Ryan Zimmerman (244 wRC+, 58.8 Hard%, four HRs) also has one of the top hard contact rates on the slate over the last week. Jose Urena has allowed a 39.1 Hard% in the month of July. Mike Zunino (168 wRC+, 60 Hard%, two HRs) and Chase Headley (142 wRC+, 60 Hard%, one HR) are the only two batters on the slate with a higher hard contact rate than Zimmerman. While Zunino has never had issues hitting the ball hard, Headley has never been a big exit velocity guy (87.6 mph this year).

Jose Ramirez remains the hottest hitter on the slate and the only qualified one (10 PA min.) with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week. His 320 wRC+ and 51.5 Hard% with two HRs goes up against Wade Miley, who's been trading strikeouts for ground ball since the season began, though RHBs continue to have success against him this year (.352 wOBA, 52.1 GB%, 34.7 Hard%). Guillermo Heredia (271 wRC+, 62.5 Hard%, 1 HR) just meets the PA threshold, but should be near the top of the lineup against Daniel Norris (RHBs .344 wOBA, 39.1 Hard% since last season). Justin Turner (261 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, two HRs) sat last night, but will hopefully be back against the lefty Steven Matz tonight, who has stopped throwing his slider. Edwin Encarnacion (247 wRC+, 46.2 Hard%, five HRs) enjoys the same quality matchup with Miley.

Players looking for their cheap bats at the top of the lineup tonight have just two options, both in the same game. On one side, Franchy Cordero is facing Zack Greinke. On the other side, Daniel Descalso has it a little bit better against Luis Perdomo, who has struggled against LHBs (.365 wOBA, 38.5 Hard% career), though he still keeps them on the ground 52% of the time. Chris Young ($3.2K DK, $2.2K FD) bats second against C.C. Sabathia. Jesus Aguilar bats third against a low strikeout lefty in Ty Blach for just $2.2K on FanDuel, though First Base is a difficult position to punt. If players aren't as picky about premium lineup placement, we can expand to include last night's superstar Scooter Gennett ($2.2K on FD) against a pitcher who struggles both on the road and vs LHBs (Lance Lynn). On the opposite side of that game, Jose Martinez costs just $2.1K on FD, $3.1K on DK against Bronson Arroyo. Consider Guillermo Heredia as well if he leads off against the left-handed Adalberto Mejia tonight.

Mike Pelfrey has yet to have that signature blowup outing to begin his 2017 campaign but has consistently giving up runs and issuing free passes, evidenced by his inability to make it out the fifth inning in all but one start. Pelfrey strikes out hitters from both sides of the plate at a sub-10% rate, putting everyone in the Seattle Mariners lineup in play, though lefties are the preferred targets, as Pelfrey typically does an above-average job at keeping the ball on the ground (59.2% GB% in 2016) and limiting hard contact (26.3% HH%) to right-handed batters. However, last season against lefties, Pelfrey registered groundballs at a 45.3% rate with a 35.9% hard hit rate. Basically, Pelfrey cannot strike out left-handed batters and allows them to crush the baseball on a consistent basis. With Robinson Cano on the disabled list, Ben Gamel (168 wRC+, .410 wOBA, .191 ISO vs RHP) and Kyle Seager (140 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .216 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are the clear top targets in this Seattle lineup, while Nelson Cruz (159 wRC+, .397 wOBA, .258 ISO vs RHP) can always get ahold of one against any pitcher, let alone a starting pitcher of Pelfrey's caliber. Outside of that, hitters like Guillermo Heredia and Mike Freeman can be considered as salary-saving options to round out a Mariners stack in tournaments.

Eric Thames ($3.8K on DraftKings) and his counterpart, Matt Carpenter ($2.9K on FanDuel), are top value plays tonight and perhaps that's all players will need to find their ideal lineup, but they are certainly not the only low cost bats that can be considered tonight. Josh Reddick (144 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP since last year) has a 219 wRC+ over the last week and costs just $3.3K on DK against a struggling Alex Cobb (LHBs .493 wOBA since returning from surgery). FanDuel players could consider a middle of the lineup mini-stack, adding cleanup hitter Jedd Gyorko for $2.5K. He has a 126 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP since last season and Wily Peralta has fared not much better against same handed hitters (.348 wOBA) than LHBs (.370 wOBA) since 2015. Joc Pederson ($3.8K DK, $2.5K FD) leads off for the Dodgers in Arizona tonight. He has a 139 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since last year. Jordy Mercer and Guillermo Heredia are minimally priced leadoff options as well, in less friendly spots. Wilmer Difo bats out of the second spot, now against Matt Harvey, for $2.5K or less on either site. Players looking for a punt behind the plate could do worse than James McCann. He has shown immense power against LHP (.292 ISO since last year) and faces one who allows a lot of hard contact to RHBs (37.5% since 2015) and grades out well in the RotoGrinders HR Predictor tonight and costs less than $3K on either site.

Players are looking for cheap bats if paying up for pitching tonight and there's no better place to start than with the Dodgers against Zack Greinke. Greinke rebounded with solid results in his second start, but the stuff still doesn't appear to be there as the velocity remains down and he's allowed hard contact on more than 40% of batted balls. Andrew Toles (135 wRC+, .198 ISO career vs RHP) leads off and costs $2.7K on DK/$2.4K on FD. Corey Seager (149 wRC+, .236 ISO career vs RHP) doesn't fit the normal criteria here, but does cost less than $3K on FanDuel. Kevin Pillar has been a below average hitter with little power against LHP in his career and we can say the same for Guillermo Heredia, but both cost the minimum out of the leadoff spot on FanDuel against a weak LHP (Miley, Perez) tonight. Brandon Guyer (152 wRC+, .192 ISO vs LHP since 2015) joins them at $2K, batting third for Cleveland. Gorkys Hernandez is also a below average hitter in what could be a difficult matchup against Tyler Anderson, but would also be a low priced leadoff hitter if here in the confirmed lineup for San Francisco tonight. Although lower in the lineup, the Mariners offer two more viable punt plays on the merit of matchup tonight with Taylor Motter (261 wRC+, .60 Hard% last seven days - $3.3K DK/$2.7K FD) at SS and Mike Zunino (131 wRC+, .238 ISO vs LHP since last season - $3K DK/$2.1K FD) behind the plate.

The Mariners have actually been swinging the bats very well of late. They also draw a plus matchup against Derek Holland tonight, as he owns a meager 14.3% strikeout rate on the season accompanied by a 30.4% hard hit rate, a 5.18 SIERA, and a 5.27 xFIP. He is a left-handed pitcher with traditional splits, as right-handed batters have a .333 wOBA and a 32.9% hard hit rate against him, compared to a .241 wOBA and an 18.0% hard hit rate for left-handed batters. Obviously, we will want to target Seattle right-handed batters here, but hat does eliminate a few of their better hitters. Nelson Cruz (157 wRC+, .400 wOBA, .312 ISO vs LHP), Franklin Gutierrez (151 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .251 ISO vs LHP), and Dae-Ho Lee (.175 ISO vs LHP) are firmly in play, Guillermo Heredia has been leading off against left-handed pitching of late, and tonight is no different. A Mariners stack of the righties is definitely a strategy to consider for tournaments.

C.C. Sabthia has allowed 13 HRs over his last 11 starts. The strange thing is that for the season, he has a 24.8 Hard% and 23.8 Soft%. Over these 11 starts, he has a 26.3 Hard% and 23.0 Hard%. He's still inducing a lot of weak contact and limiting hard contact plus he gets a significant park upgrade tonight. The Mariners have an outstanding 17.2 HR/FB vs LHP and a 16.6 HR/FB at home and one absolute lefty masher along with three cheap RH bats, so that may be the way to lean in this matchup despite the weak contact. Nelson Cruz (186 wRC+, .328 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the near mandatory bat whenever facing a non-elite lefty. Franklin Gutierrez (151 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP since 2015) costs $3.1K or less on either site. Mike Zunino (279 wRC+ last seven days) is an interesting cheap Catcher ($3.1K or less on either site) too now that he's batting sixth. Leadoff man Guillermo Heredia doesn't have much of a resume yet, but costs just $2.3K on DraftKings. None of those bats, except Cruz, have to do much at all to cover their cost and all except Heredia have significant power.