Harold Varner Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Varner grades out as the top overall play in my model this week and is the 14th most expensive golfer on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’ll likely be popular, but I’m 99% sure I’ve never had a golfer this cheap rate out as the top play of the slate. I’m much more likely to eat chalk at the top than I am with the values because they are more consistent and have more win equity. Varner hasn’t been amazing since the restart, but he does have four top 35 finishes in his last seven events. In this field, he’s ranked inside the top 10 in strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach, which should bode well for his chances this week. He’s played this event each of the last five years and has never missed a cut while posting three top 20 finishes.

Varner bounced back from a recent slump with a solid top 30 finish at the PGA Championship last week. He could be one of the better values on the board for the Wyndham. He ranks 15th on Tour in ball striking this year, and he ranks above field average in par four scoring and birdie or better percentage. It will all come down to whether or not he can prevent the blow up round and keep his flat stick rolling. There’s a nice discount on his price tag this week, and he makes sense as a tournament upside option in this weak field.

Varner has been a regular target of mine since the restart and I see no reason why I shouldn't go back to the well this week. He's coming off of a T30 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he gained over five strokes ball striking. The week before he gained over seven strokes ball striking. He also accomplished this feat two weeks before that. In total, he's gained 20.8 strokes ball striking in the first four events back. Additionally, he's one of eight golfers in the field to rank in the top 30 in both birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance. This gives him a solid floor and a solid ceiling. He's played here three times over the years, making two cuts.

Varner luckily missed the cut here last year or he would be one of the highest owned golfers this week (I suppose he still could be, but I'm writing this on Monday and that doesn't appear to be the case). He's never been great on bermudagrass, so we can forgive his missed cut at the RBC Heritage. In the other two events since returning from the break, he posted a T19 at the Charles Schwab Challenge (+8.5 strokes ball striking) and a T32 at the Travelers Championship (+7.6 strokes ball striking). His game is trending in the right direction and he has a much better chance of a top 10 finish in a field like this.

This is a really interesting spot for Varner. It doesn’t profile as the absolute greatest course for his game, but I get the feeling that this might be the year where we see Varner develop more consistency. It was often one poor round that hurt him in events last year, and the upside is definitely there if he can make those “blow up” rounds happen with a little less frequency. He basically graded out in the middle of the pack statistically (ranked between 60th and 90th in ball striking, birdie or better percentage, and strokes gained on approach) last year, but his good rounds are really good — while his bad rounds are really bad. I like the fact that he is playing here for the fifth time, too. He has made the cut in each of his first four visits with a pair of top 20 finishes. That kind of course history is enough for me to climb aboard with a golfer of his talent level, especially at reasonable price tags everywhere.

If you sort last week’s results by strokes gained on approach, Harold Varner was your surprising leader at a blitzing +9.5 strokes for the week. That is some elite iron play, which should have him brimming with confidence heading to Medinah. He’s also playing with house money after rising from 102nd to 29th in the FedEx Cup standings, so he is suddenly on the verge of being able to make the final 30. His game is notoriously inconsistent, as he often falls down leaderboards thanks to one bad round. However, in the event that he puts four rounds together (like a week ago), there’s sneaky potential. I like the trends here, and I’m more than happy to roll with Varner as a solid value, especially in a no cut format.

Varner has gained strokes putting in five straight tournaments. That has never happened in his PGA Tour career. Perhaps he has finally figured something out with the flatstick. Hey, if Webb Simpson can do it, anyone can. At the very least, his recent play should lend some more confidence on the greens. I like Varner this week because he makes a ton of birdies (fourth in the field) and he is one of the best on tour when it comes to par five scoring. There are four par fives that the golfers will be able to feast on this week.

The price tag is surprisingly cheap here, and Varner is one of my favorite value picks of the week. He is a bomb-and-gouge player off the tee who just wants to grip it and rip it out there. He is coming off back to back top ten finishes and is playing the best golf of his PGA Tour career. The $7,100 price tag on DraftKings is an absolute steal. He’s long off the tee (17th in driving distance) and also well above average in ball striking, so the tee to green game plays well, especially with his improved current form. Varner is playing much better now than what his full season statistics will show. Buy low while you still can.