Hideki Matsuyama Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Matsuyama was a highly owned option in all formats last week, and he proceeded to shoot five under par in his two rounds at the Shriners. All good, right? Five under through two rounds should keep him in the mix for the weekend. Wrong. The cut line was an unprecedented seven under par at the end of the day Friday, which kept the likes of Matsuyama, Morikawa, and others a shot or two short of playing the weekend. Oddly, it wasn’t really the putter that let Matsuyama down, as he gained strokes with the flat stick in those two rounds. I’m not going to write off his ball striking after one fluky event where everyone was making birdies. In fact, I hope it serves to lower his ownership this week. His ball striking should return to more normal levels here, making him an elite play in any format.

I originally wanted to write up Webb Simpson (and still view him as an elite play), but once I started building out my main lineup, I liked the balanced approach a little better. Starting with Hideki over Webb allows you to upgrade a lineup or two at the bottom of your lineup. Matsuyama doesn’t have the elite putting like I talked about in the introduction, but he’s third in this field in strokes gained approach and third in strokes gained around the green. That’s a lethal combination around these parts and we know all golfers can run into a hot putting week every now and then. In his two appearances here, he has finishes of T10 and T16. He's also coming off of six straight top 30 finishes and three straight top 17 finishes.

It is Matsuyama’s time to win a major, and this could be the spot where he does it. He does have four career top fives at major championships, including a runner-up finish at the 2017 U.S. Open. His form has steadily improved over the last two months, and he has now finished inside the top 30 in six of his last seven events. That included a third place finish at the BMW Championship in the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Remember, that event was set up like a quasi-U.S. Open style event, as Matsuyama finished third with a score of just two under par for the week. We know the tee to green game will be there, as he is one of the best on Tour in that department; it will all come down to the flat stick. The DFS price tag isn’t outrageous, he grades out well statistically, and he has the talent to do exactly what Gary Woodland did a year ago.

Matsuyama continues to churn out top 30 finishes and he continues to have one part of his game let him down every week. As crazy as it sounds, he has actually gained over four strokes putting in the last two events combined. We can almost always expect him to gain strokes with his irons and over the last 50 rounds, he’s one of the best when it comes to around the green play. On a long golf course like this, it might come down to his driver. If he hits it well off the tee and can continue to putt well (his favorite surfaces are poa and bentgrass), he could be in the mix on Sunday. It’s been far too long since we’ve seen him in the winner’s circle. While the “due” factor is never a reason to play someone, Matsuyama is more of a winner than he’s given credit floor. I like his floor and ceiling in a no cut event like this.

Matsuyama is a regular feature in my core plays article because he does so many things well on the golf course — he’s solid off the tee (and improving), he’s good around the greens, and he’s one of the best iron players in the world. The big weakness is his putter, but there are some encouraging signs heading into this week’s event. He gained over a stroke putting at the PGA Championship his last time out, bentgrass is his preferred putting surface, and he’s gained at least two strokes putting in two of his last three trips to TPC Boston. He has some of the best course history in the field, reeling off four straight top 25 finishes here. He also has four top 25 finishes in his last five events on tour. It’s been far too long since he’s found himself in the winner’s circle.

Matsuyama has played five events since the restart and hasn’t been able to post another better than a T20. While he doesn’t have the elite form that we are often looking for, there are encouraging signs in his statistics. Here are his strokes gained tee to green on the field at the St. Jude Invitational (+4.8), the Workday Charity Open (+9.0), and the Rocket Mortgage Classic (+7.4). His putter has been abysmal, but he’s one of the best ball strikers in the field and one of the best around the green. His best putting surfaces are bentgrass and poa annua grass and he has a good track record in California. He also has a good record at the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open.

Matsuyama was the only core play to make the cut last week. If there wasn’t actual money at stake, it would have been comical how bad they all played. I’m going back to the well this week, especially since he’s significantly cheaper. When you roster Hideki, you always run the risk of his putter being ice cold and that’s been the case in each of his last two events. He has gained 7.8 and 8.3 strokes with his ball striking, but lost a total of 4.8 strokes on the greens. Luckily, he much prefers bentgrass and poa annua grass over bermudagrass. With his ball striking being in such good shape and with his scrambling being elite, we just need one good week with the putter for him to contend.

Matsuyama missed the cut in his first event back from the break and struggled a bit in his first round at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Apparently, three rounds was his magic number to knock off the rust. He was solid in the last three rounds and vaulted up the leaderboard. He ended the week T21 while gaining nearly eight strokes on the field with his ball striking. He's not a great putter, but bentgrass is his preferred surface. He's elite with his irons and around the green, which is the key to success around Muirfield Village. Since 2014, he's won here and has two more top 10 finishes on this course.

I will start off by admitting that I do have a problem falling in love with golfers that strike the ball incredibly well, but cannot putt. I'm not sure there is a player on Tour that embodies this more than Hideki. Anyone that played Matsuyama at RBC Heritage got absolutely burned by him, as he lost 5 strokes putting on his way to a missed cut. Losing 5 strokes on the green is absolutely egregious, even for Hideki, and I am betting on the fact that he will regress more towards the mean (which is still being a bad putter). That said, if you take a step back and look at long term form, Hideki is one of the top ball-strikers in this field. With this play, I am betting on the fact that people will be quick to remember the missed cut from two weeks ago, and quick to forget the 63 he shot at The Players before the tournament was cancelled. He is far from a safe play, especially at his price tag, but I like him as a GPP option that has the potential to go extremely low on a course that should present a birdie-fest. Just be prepared to tilt over missed putts if you choose to play him!

When it comes to DFS, I change my mind quite often. Sometimes it works, sometimes it ends up costing me. I originally wrote up DeChambeau over Matsuyama, but have decided to switch the pick. The last time we saw Hideki he was leading the PLAYERS Championship after round one. He was solid with his ball striking and had one of his best putting rounds ever. Naturally, that round was discarded from the record books. Even though he's never played Harbour Town, he's a nice fit for the course. His biggest strengths are on approach (fourth in this field) and around the green (second in this field). He grades out as the fourth best golfer in my model, yet he is not priced that way around the industry.