Homer Bailey

Cincinnati Reds

Homer Bailey goes seven scoreless in win

The loss drops the Brewers 2 1/2 games back of the Rockies in the wild card chase. Bailey saved his best for last this season. It's the first time he's had a scoreless start of at least five innings since Aug. 12, 2016, also against Milwaukee. He last pitched at least seven scoreless innings on Aug. 7, 2014, his final start before all of his arm problems started up. He ends this year 6-9 with a 6.43 ERA in 18 starts.

Roto World News
  • SP Position
  • -- Salary
  • -- Hand
  • -- Opponent
  • -- pOWN%
  • -- Projection
  • Homer Bailey goes seven scoreless in win

    The loss drops the Brewers 2 1/2 games back of the Rockies in the wild card chase. Bailey saved his best for last this season. It's the first time he's had a scoreless start of at least five innings since Aug. 12, 2016, also against Milwaukee. He last pitched at least seven scoreless innings on Aug. 7, 2014, his final start before all of his arm problems started up. He ends this year 6-9 with a 6.43 ERA in 18 starts.

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  • The Yankees, Brewers and Red Sox are at the top of a slate without an offense above 5.4 runs.

    Seven of 22 teams on an 11 game slate have an implied run line between 5.01 and 5.38 with no other team above 4.71. The Yankees, Brewers and Red Sox are all within one-tenth of a run of each other at the top. Aaron Judge (176 wRC+, .356 ISO vs RHP) has been destroying baseballs and is the probably the top overall hitter on the board against Matt Andriese, who has allowed RHBs a .386 wOBA and 38.4 Hard% this year. The Brewers are looking like a powerful stack though. LHBs have a .357 wOBA (31.9 Hard%) against Homer Bailey and the Milwaukee bats are fairly affordable. Eric Thames (136 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP), Neil Walker (126 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP) and Travis Shaw (127 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP) all have a 40% or better hard hit rate over the last week and cost $3.4K or less on FanDuel, while Shaw is the only one of the three above $4K on DraftKings. Stephen Vogt (90 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP, 189 wRC+, 41.7 Hard% last seven days) could be a great value catcher, costing much less. RHBs have an even higher wOBA (.412) against Bailey, though Domingo Santana (124 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP) and Ryan Braun (113 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP) cost a bit more. The Red Sox are facing Marco Estrada, who's reverse split this year (.355 wOBA vs RHBs) should play right into the hands of the Red Sox, but without a lot of RH power and Chris Young (108 wRC+ vs RHP) being the only projected right-handed starter above a 100 wRC+ against RHP, it's tougher to find great fits.

    DFS Alerts
  • Bailey goes four, gives up four in loss

    Bailey was victimized by a pair of Dexter Fowler doubles among the Cardinals' seven hits, the first leading to a run in the first inning and the second plating two more runs in the third. Bailey also walked two while striking out three before exiting. The loss dropped him to 5-9 with an ugly 6.96 ERA and 1.75 WHIP through 17 starts this year. A start Wednesday against the Brewers should put a cap on the 31-year-old's season.

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  • The Astros have the highest implied run line on the slate (5.65) against rookie Carson Fulmer

    Half of the teams on a nine game slate have an implied run line between 4.6 and 5.65 runs with the Houston Astros (5.65) leading the Minnesota Twins (5.27) by a substantial margin at the top of the board. The Astros didn't particularly dominate James Shields last night and have a less enticing matchup against rookie Carson Fulmer, just by the reasoning that few pitchers can give up the long-ball like Shields. Fulmer made his first career start in August and was bombed, but the rest of his appearances in September haven't been bad (16.2 IP - 3 ER - 2 HR - 6 BB - 17 K - 66 BF - 10.9 SwStr% - 19.1 Hard% - 19.5 GB%). The ground ball rate would be the most alarming there. Fulmer is a decently thought of prospect (#6 in the organization, 50 FV grade via Fangraphs), but struggled to a 5.4 K-BB% at AAA this year with 18 HRs in 126 innings. The fact is that there's little information in and some of it is conflicting. If the Astros are going to be over-owned here, there is some merit to fading them, though they're generally running out six guys with a 120+ wRC+ and .190+ ISO vs RHP with Alex Bregman (104 wRC+, .171 ISO) not too far behind that. The Cardinals are third on the board with a 5.17 implied run line against Homer Bailey, who is coming off his best start of the season (5.2 IP - 1 ER - 7 K), but has had an otherwise miserable season and is pitching in a power friendly park under humid conditions (see Kevin's early forecast). Tommy Pham (202 wRC+, 40 Hard%), Dexter Fowler (329 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%) and Matt Carpenter (159 wRC+, 36.4 Hard%) have all been torching the ball over the last week and all are above a 130 wRC+ and 190 ISO vs RHP this year.

    DFS Alerts
  • Bailey allows one run in 5 2/3, beats Pirates

    He punched out seven batters, walked two and surrendered five base hits in one of his best outings of what has been a rough season. The veteran has struggled to regain his form after spending two-and-a-half years recovering from multiple arm surgeries. He is now 5-8 with a gruesome 6.86 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 16 starts.

    Roto World News
  • Bailey allows five runs in six innings on Sat

    His disastrous season isn't getting any better. He allowed a two-run homer to catcher Kevin Plawecki in the second inning and an RBI single to first baseman Dominic Smith in the sixth. He came back out for the seventh and drilled the first batter with a pitch before walking pinch-hitting pitcher Jacob deGrom. Bailey was then relieved but the bullpen let both runners come around to score. Bailey falls to 4-8 with a 7.26 ERA after 15 starts. He spent two and a half years recovering from multiple arm surgeries and has really struggled to regain his prior form since returning.

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  • Bailey allows three runs in no-decision

    Bailey blanked the Brewers until the seventh, when he allowed a leadoff homer to Ryan Braun. He gave up back-to-back singles from there before being pulled from the game. Michael Lorenzen eventually gave up a game-tying three-run homer and two of the runs were charged to Bailey. The oft-injured right-hander owns a 7.24 ERA through 14 starts and hasn’t won since August 11.

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  • Homer Bailey has just a 2.2% K-BB% versus LHB through 12 starts this season

    Other than a random 10-strikeout performance two-starts ago against the Chicago Cubs (where he also gave up six earned runs), the overall results for Homer Bailey have been relatively poor since his season debut towards the end of June with several low-strikeout or blow-up outings. In fact, Bailey has just a 15.6% strikeout rate and a high 11.3% walk rate, leading to a 5.41 SIERA and even worse 7.99 ERA on the year. He actually hasn't been terrible at limiting hard contact as his hard hit rate currently sits at 30.5%, which is roughly around the league average. However, Bailey allows too many balls to be lifted in the air and far too many line drives (28.1% LD%) which explain his astronomically high .378 BABIP and poor strand rate (61.5% LOB%). Understandably, it is extremely difficult to get excited about rostering any New York Mets bats these days but this certainly seems like a matchup where it may be worth a shot or two in tournaments. The Mets hitters with the best chances of doing some type of damage look to be Brandon Nimmo (126 wRC+, .363 wOBA vs RHP), Wilmer Flores (.189 ISO vs RHP), and Asdrubal Cabrera, though they are far from elite options and should only be utilized as tournament fill-ins or part of a contrarian stack. Dominic Smith (.208 ISO vs RHP) has also exhibited some power in his brief stint in the Majors thus far and could be worth a dart throw as a punt at the first base spot as well.

    DFS Alerts
  • Bailey allows two runs in six innings, loses

    He let in two runs in the first inning and then turned in another five scoreless frames in one of his best starts of the season, which isn't saying much since he has a 7.51 ERA after 13 starts. He registered only one strikeout but gave up just one walk and four knocks. Bailey has really struggled to return to form after a longer than usual recovery from Tommy John surgery. He pitched a paltry 11 1/3 innings in 2015, 23 innings in 2016 and 62 1/3 innings so far in 2017. The Reds will let him work through his issues this fall in the hopes they can get their workhorse back at full effectiveness for next season. He has two years remaining on a six-year, $105 million contract.

    Roto World News
  • Homer Bailey (shoulder) to start Wednesday

    Bailey left his last outing with a sore shoulder and had his next outing pushed back a few days, but the Reds think he'll be fine. He's posted a brutal 7.99 ERA over 12 starts this season.

    Roto World News

History

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