| Date | Opp | DKSAL | FDSAL | DKFPTS | FDFPTS | k | ip | ab | sho | w | hra | l | er | cg | ha | 3ba | bba | sba | ibba | whip | hbp | qstart | 1ba | k/9 | 2ba |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-22 | vs. DET | $7.8K | $7.7K | 8.35 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| 2020-07-28 | vs. STL | $9K | $8K | 15.65 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7.2 | 1 |
| 2019-09-24 | @ LAA | $8.4K | $8.5K | 6.45 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5.4 | 2 |
| 2019-09-18 | vs. KC | -- | -- | 35.35 | 58 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14.14 | 1 |
| 2019-09-12 | @ HOU | -- | -- | 18.4 | 31 | 4 | 5.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1.13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6.75 | 1 |
| 2019-09-06 | vs. DET | -- | -- | 12.65 | 26 | 3 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4.27 | 0 |
| 2019-08-31 | @ NYY | -- | -- | 23.75 | 38 | 9 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14.31 | 0 |
| 2019-08-26 | @ KC | -- | -- | 12.7 | 28 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4.5 | 0 |
| 2019-08-20 | vs. NYY | -- | -- | 26.55 | 44 | 8 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.24 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12.72 | 0 |
| 2019-08-14 | @ SF | -- | -- | 31.95 | 52 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| 2019-08-07 | @ CHC | -- | -- | -8.3 | -7 | 0 | 4.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| 2019-08-01 | vs. MIL | -- | -- | 14.7 | 31 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7.5 | 0 |
| 2019-07-27 | vs. TEX | -- | -- | 22.2 | 42 | 7 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9.46 | 1 |
| 2019-07-22 | @ HOU | -- | -- | -16.7 | -15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5.5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| 2019-07-17 | vs. SEA | -- | -- | 21.3 | 40 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.17 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| 2019-07-04 | vs. CLE | -- | -- | 8.45 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5.4 | 2 |
| 2019-06-29 | @ TOR | -- | -- | 7.85 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10.8 | 0 |
| 2019-06-23 | vs. MIN | -- | -- | 20.4 | 34 | 5 | 5.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8.44 | 2 |
| 2019-06-18 | @ SEA | -- | -- | 29.05 | 51 | 6 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.91 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7.05 | 1 |
| 2019-06-13 | vs. DET | -- | -- | 25.9 | 46 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.83 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| 2019-06-07 | vs. CWS | -- | -- | 8.7 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.33 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4.5 | 2 |
| 2019-06-01 | @ TEX | -- | -- | 1.45 | 8 | 3 | 3.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.18 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7.38 | 2 |
| 2019-05-28 | @ CWS | -- | -- | 15.35 | 25 | 5 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.92 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10.39 | 0 |
| 2019-05-22 | @ STL | -- | -- | -6.45 | -4 | 2 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3.6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10.84 | 0 |
| 2019-05-16 | vs. TEX | -- | -- | 0.55 | 10 | 4 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2.77 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8.31 | 0 |
| 2019-05-10 | vs. PHI | -- | -- | 17.05 | 30 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7.2 | 2 |
| 2019-05-04 | @ DET | -- | -- | 16.1 | 34 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| 2019-04-28 | vs. LAA | -- | -- | 7.9 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4.5 | 1 |
| 2019-04-23 | @ TB | -- | -- | -9.95 | -9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-04-18 | @ NYY | -- | -- | 25.1 | 43 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 2019-04-13 | vs. CLE | -- | -- | 29.35 | 49 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7.71 | 1 |
| 2019-04-08 | vs. SEA | -- | -- | 5.25 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12.6 | 0 |
| 2019-04-03 | vs. MIN | -- | -- | 17.05 | 30 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14.4 | 3 |
Homer Bailey Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Cash Game SP2
Homer Bailey gets the nod over Steven Matz for me as the #1 cheap cash game option at SP2. Matz is the higher variant option of the two if you're looking to embrace volatility and look for a little more upside at the position. Bailey is unexciting but gets a tremendous strikeout matchup against a Rangers team that owns the fourth highest strikeout rate (25.8%) in the league against right-handed pitching. Other things working in Bailey's favor include a pitcher's ump calling balls and strikes and a pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Bailey is a solid SP option vs. struggling Rangers offense
The Rangers come into this game with a league-worst 74 wRC+ and 29.1% K rate over the past 30 days, and are now without their best hitter in Joey Gallo. Bailey hasn’t been a very effective pitcher this year with a 5.42 ERA, 4.66 xFIP and 4.88 SIERA with a 20.7% K rate and 9.5% BB rate. He also owns a .347 xwOBA allowed, 6.7% barrel rate and a 90.1 MPH aEV. However, pitching on this slate is incredibly dry and Bailey actually projects as one of the better PTS/$ pitchers on the board tonight. Fortunately for Bailey, in addition to a great matchup he’ll also be pitching in a good pitchers’ park in O.co. Overall, the Rangers have a 98 wRC+ and 25.8% K rate vs. RHP on the year. Bailey costs just $6.7k on Draftkings and $6.8k on Fanduel; due to the lack of pitching on this slate he can be considered in all contests. The struggling Rangers currently have just a 4.14 implied total vs. Bailey and the A’s tonight.
YOLO With This Starter
I think this Tigers matchup for Homer Bailer is the one we turn to if you’re going to YOLO your SP2 spot. Homer Bailey gets a juicy matchup against a bad Tigers offense. The Tigers have the 2nd highest K% this season against right-handed pitching and a low team wRC+ of just 76. Bailey also has an average 20.8 K% this season, so it’s reasonable to think there’s upside here. Yes, I realize we’re talking about Homer Bailey and there’s obvious blowup risk with this guy, but I think he’s viable in all formats as your SP2.
Diving Down For SP2
Yesterday, attacking the Tigers with right handed pitcher Brad Keller worked out, so lets go back to it with righty Homer Bailey. Bailey has been a lot better this year and he gets one of the best matchups possible against the struggling Detroit Tigers. The Tigers this year against right handed pitchers are 2nd in strikeouts at 26%, 28th ISO, and 30th wOBA. Bailey is still not a big strikeout guy, but at his cheap price with a great matchup, I like this spot in tournaments.
Game in Kansas City features two pitchers above a .350 xwOBA
A game in Kansas City between the Royals and White Sox is generally not likely to garner much attention, except that both teams are among the top third by implied run lines tonight with two of the more punishable pitchers on the mound tonight. Ivan Nova has struck out a total of 12 batters over his last five starts with a 5.4 SwStr%. His 92.5 Z-Contact% is worst on the board and though his estimators are generally about a run below his 6.24 ERA, his 9.51 DRA suggest better than a run per inning. Between Nova and Homer Bailey, we are looking at two of the six xwOBA marks on the board above .350 this season (three start min.). While Nova does it by simply not missing any bats anymore, Bailey can still miss bats at a league average rate (21.4 K%), but is otherwise a human launching pad. Batters have a 35.8 Hard-Soft% and board high 91.2 mph aEV against him when making contact. He hasn’t lasted even 20 batters in any of his last three starts or more than five innings in over a month. While both pitchers are better against RHBs over the last calendar year, neither drops below a .329 wOBA or xwOBA against batters from either side of the plate over that span. While the park in Kansas City suppresses power, it is a positive run environment. Yoan Moncada (116 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has a 191 wRC+ over the last week. Adalberto Mondesi (107 wRC+, .212 ISO) is experiencing a similar breakout on the side of this one, while Alex Gordon (116 wRC+, .202 ISO) has rejuvenated his career.
Never Fun
Rostering Homer Bailey is never #fun. Bailey is well below a league average pitcher but is ridiculously cheap (especially on DraftKings) and gets a favorable home matchup against the Chicago White Sox. Pitching Bailey on single pitcher sites is a little too #YOLO for my taste but using him as SP2 on multi-SP sites as a way to access high priced bats is in play in tournaments.
Hard contact and Ks: A case for both sides
Homer Bailey had been seeing a velocity bump, but it dropped back down last start. However, he still hasn’t had fewer than six strikeouts or an 8.8 SwStr% in any of his four starts and he’s faced some decent offenses. He seems to have picked up a split finger and it’s his second most favored pitch this year (25.1%). It has replaced some sinkers and generated a 48% whiff rate. He’s still a fly ball pitcher (35.1 GB%), with some hard contact problems (50% 95+ mph EV) and he’s facing a difficult lineup (120 wRC+, 31.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), but in a pitcher’s park with a pitcher’s umpire (Brian O’Nora). The Rays are a lift and pull offense. This is dangerous, but there is some upside here (Rays 29.1 K% at home, 24 K% vs RHP, 25.6 K% last seven days). Bailey is plenty cheap enough to work in a secondary spot on DraftKings ($6.2K) in GPPs, even if players want to use some bats against him as well. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Bailey over the last calendar year (though that’s dropped some this year). Brandon Lowe, Tommy Pham and Yandy Diaz all have at least a 130 wRC+ with ISOs above .200 vs RHP over that same span. All three are also averaging above a 90 mph aEV this season. There should be both some HRs and strikeouts here.
Increased Pitch Usage
Homer Bailey had a 5.22 xFIP with a 15.2% strikeout rate in 2018. He has a 2.96 xFIP with a 29.3% strikeout rate in his four starts in 2019. These numbers are going to regress, but after digging into "why", he's throwing more breaking stuff instead of fastballs this season. In 2018, he threw his splitter 3.69% to lefties and 2.11% to righties. He's throwing it 28.44% to lefties and 20.93% to righties this season. I'm not saying this pitch is going to save him, but it's certainly making a difference to start the season. He has at least six strikeouts in each of his four starts, and considering his price, he's certainly someone I'll be using tonight.
Highest implied run line in this park in a while
Possibly their highest home implied run total of the season and if not, at least in a very long time, the Pirates (5.05) are one of four offenses above five runs as they are set to host the Reds. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Homer Bailey this season and the bullpen isn't much better (5.04 FIP last 30 days). Jose Osuna is the only batter among the first seven in the order not above a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Colin Moran (107 wRC+, .121 ISO) the only other one among that group not above a 110 wRC+ and .170 ISO. The top third of the order is very expensive on DraftKings tonight, more affordable on FanDuel. However, Francisco Cervelli (135 wRC+, .191 ISO) in the cleanup spot is less than $4K, along with Corey Dickerson (112 wRC+, .188 ISO) one spot behind him.
Top hitter in a top spot
St Louis is a fairly negative run environment, but some heat and humidity in the forecast gives a small bump to bats tonight. Homer Bailey gives a large one. Batters from either side of the plate range between a .365 to .395 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The Cardinals have a 5.23 implied run line, which places them among the top five offenses on the board. All the Matt Carpenter (155 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP this season) please with sides of Matt Adams (128 wRC+, .260 ISO), Jose Martinez (132 wRC+, .175 ISO) and Tyler O'Neill (112 wRC+, .237 ISO).