Hunter Greene Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Cubs vs. Reds will be delayed due to rain Saturday.

The pitcher who flip flops for the top value projection with Brandon Woodruff on Thursday night costs less than $8.5K on either site and this is the pitcher you are looking at if paying down. High risk in a really difficult park, but extremely high upside as well. Hunter Greene returned to the Cincinnati rotation in a fury, striking out 11 of the 22 Cardinals he faced without a walk. He’s up to a 29.8 K% on the season and down to an 8.9 BB% without a walk in either of his last two. He’s allowed 23 home runs on 27 barrels (9.7%), but just one on four (6.1%) over his last five as well. A 4.97 ERA is nearly a run above non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.41 DRA to a 4.09 xERA, but the park is always going to be a problem, especially when you have just a 28.7 GB%. A 30% strikeout rate may be a necessity. The Brewers are dangerous (109 wRC+, 23.0 K%, 15.2 HR/FB vs RHP). Greene is a top five projected pitcher overall, in addition to being a top projected value, but the range of outcomes here is obviously very…very wide.

After Woodruff, three more arms project among the top five FanDuel values for $8.5K, but are you going to trust any of them on a single pitcher site? With a 24.6 K% over his last five starts, Mitch Keller sits at 19.5% on the season (11.0 K-BB%) with a 49.4 GB%. He has four straight Quality Starts and you can start to see something special in there. He’s allowed just 6.9% Barrels/BBE. All estimators are within a quarter of a run of his 4.03 ERA. He is an interesting arm here, for less than $8K in a decent home matchup (Cubs 97 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP). On DraftKings, he’s a no-brainer SP2 for less than $6K, but projects as the third best value on either site.

Jose Berrios has struck out just 13 of his last 107 batters and is down to 19.8% on the season with a 90 mph EV and 10% Barrels/BBE. His only small saving grace is that he’s not handing out free passes (5.7 BB%). His 4.99 ERA is above most estimators, but below a 5.19 xERA. Still a decent GPP only play in a spot with some upside (Rays 102 wRC+, 23.8 K% vs RHP) and a substantial park upgrade, Berrios is an extremely volatile arm who could win or lose you a GPP nearly on his own. The problem is that he’s been doing much more of the latter this year. He, too, costs nearly $2K less on DraftKings, but projects as the fourth best value on either site, with potentially an even wider range of outcomes than Greene.

Ranger Suarez is not missing bats this year (19.9 K%, 11.0 K-BB%), but, like his opponent, is still generating lots of weak ground balls (87.2 mph EV, 6.2% Barrels/BBE, 33.3% 95+ mph EV, 56.3 GB%). His last start against these Braves was his first quality one in nearly a month. Although a bit below other estimators, a 3.53 aligns strongly with his 3.50 xERA. Projections see some upside in an extremely dangerous matchup (Braves 118 wRC+, 22.5 K%, 13.8 HR/FB) in an extremely dangerous park. The upside may not be as high as some of the pitchers above though with just as much risk.

Hayden Wesneski has struck out 18 of 59 batters, but with just a 10.1 SwStr%, while he had just a 22.4 K% at AAA this year. However, he’s also walked just two (7.4% at AAA) with an 83.9 mph EV. Nearly 25 years-old already, Wesneski is a marginally regarded prospect with just a 40+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs). That said, he’s facing the Pirates (83 wRC+, 25.4 K% vs RHP) in Pittsburgh and costs less than $7K on DraftKings.

Hunter Greene is the second best projected pitcher on the board currently (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change) with a price tag sitting in the middle of the board ($9.1K FD, $8.1K DK) on a seven game slate. He’s allowed five home runs, while striking out nine of his last 44 batters with four walks against the Brewers and Dodgers. His 8.2 SwStr% against the Dodgers was his second lowest of the season. His strikeout rate still stands at 28.9% (second best on the board). It’s just a matter of harnessing the stuff, not handing out free passes (9.8 BB%) and keeping the ball in the park. He has six starts with multiple home runs allowed, including at least three on three different occasions. In his defense, it’s a tough park and he’s only generated a single barrel that hasn’t left the park, but that’s still 11.4% of his contact. A 5.70 FIP exceeds his 5.60 ERA, but all other estimators are more than a run lower. He’s volatile, but with tremendous upside in a favorable spot. Weather Edge suggest Wrigley is more pitcher friendly tonight with a pitcher friendly umpire against a team with a 98 wRC+ and 22.8 K% vs RHP. Greene is a top two projected point per dollar value on either site tonight.

The other pitcher who projects well enough to stand alone from a point per dollar perspective for less than $9K is Michael Kopech ($8.9K FD, $7.6K DK). He has struck out just six of his last 49 batters with five walks and is down to just a 22.9 K% on the season with a 9.8 SwStr%. Pair that with some awful control (11.6 BB%) and he’s running a SIERA and xFIP above four and a half. The confusing thing is that an 89.5 mph EV and 7.5% Barrels/BBE is fine, but doesn’t seem like it would drop his xERA more than a run below those contact neutral estimators, but it does. Then consider that just four of those 12 barrels have left the yard (4.8 HR/FB) and you get the unsustainable 3.62 FIP, which is still more than a run above his 2.59 ERA (.191 BABIP). It’s not that he has an easy matchup tonight, but a high upside one against the Angels (106 wRC+ and board high 26 K% vs RHP). This lineup simply strikes out a ton with a lot of outs in the bottom half.

DraftKings projections also suggest Andre Pallante is a decent punt at $5.1K. He has struck out just 12 of 88 batters in a starting role with 10 walks. On a positive note, he’s also only allowed two barrels with a ground ball rate above 60% as a starter. On the season, he has a 62.7 GB% with just 3.3% Barrels/BBE, but even with that contact profile, a 4.8 K-BB% isn’t going to cut it. A 3.68 xERA (that’s likely unsustainable) is his only estimator below four. He pitches in a pitcher friendly park (though with a hitter friendly umpire today) against a predominantly right-handed lineup that has been really good against RHP (110 wRC+, 22.4 K%), while he’s shown a reverse split (RHBs .357 wOBA, .339 xwOBA), but the Marlins also have just an 86 wRC+ on the road and he really doesn’t have to do much to cover this cost.

The same pitcher friendly Wrigley weather in a strong spot conditions apply to Justin Steele at a low price ($6.5K DK). The eight Pirates he struck out last time out exceeds his total from his previous three starts combined (seven). Make no mistake, Steele is a contact manager (50.3 GB%, 87 mph EV, 3.1% Barels/BBE) with the strikeouts (21.3%) and walks (10.1%) hit or miss on any given occasion. He’s also only gone beyond five innings four times, but three of those have been over his last four starts. With a .314 BABIP and 64.4 LOB%, all of his estimators are more than one-third of a run below his 4.59 ERA. The Reds have a modest 98 wRC+ and 22.4 K% vs LHP, but just a 73 wRC+ and 7.2 HR/FB on the road.

Kyle Bradish is the number seven prospect in the Baltimore system with a 45+ Future Value grade, according to Fangraphs. A February scouting report included a velocity uptick (94-96 mph) in addition to a pair of good breaking balls. Fifteen innings of a 24.6 K-BB% this year follows 86.2 with a 17.5% mark last year. Considering the alterations made to the park in Baltimore and the struggling Boston offense (76 wRC+), which may be without J.D. Martinez tonight, Bradish currently projects as the top DraftKings value at the minimum price tag of $4K (not available on FD).

On the other side of this game, It’s not that Rich Hill and his 12.1 K% (4.7 SwStr%, 94.6 Z-Contact%) or 1.8 K-BB% is all that imposing, but he’ll be piggybacked by Tanner Houck, who does have some talent (20.5 K-BB% over 101.2 major league innings and will probably have nearly no ownership at around $8K on either site. The workload will probably be in the neighborhood of four to five innings, but the Orioles have an 88 wRC+ and 25.4 K% vs RHP this year.

There are a few additional bottom of the board arms who may be worth considering in your DraftKings SP2 spot. With a marginal 11.3 K-BB%, Aaron Civale needs to manage contact better than the average pitcher to succeed, but he’s not been doing that so far. With just a 25.7 GB% and 91 mph EV, he’s allowed five barrels (15.9%) and been fortunate that just two have left the yard. Estimators may be half his 9.58 ERA (41.7 LOB%, .382 BABIP), but none drop below a 4.45 SIERA. This is all about the matchup in Oakland though (89 wRC+, 25.7 K% vs RHP), for less than $7K. Hunter Greene’s 100 mph fastball (avg 98.8) has impressed everyone, along with the 39.1 Whiff% on his slider. It’s added up to a good, not great 26.2 K% and 16.4 K-BB%. It is a bit problematic, at least in Cincinnati and maybe here, tonight, in Colorado, that he’s generated just 28.9% of his contact on the ground with an 89.9 mph EV. This has led to four barrels (10.5%) and three home runs. That said, his 5.27 ERA is a bit above estimators ranging from a 3.66 SIERA to a 5.13 FIP. He’s at Coors tonight, but the wind is blasting inward and he costs just $6.5K.