J.A. Happ Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

J.A. Happ has struck out just seven of his last 68 batters, allowing nearly as many HRs (five) over that span. Decreasing strikeouts with increasing home runs has been an unfortunate theme of his season in 2019. He has been successful against his former team this season (12.1 IP – 3 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 9 K – 48 BF), but this young lineup is really coming into it’s own. Yet, the Blue Jays find themselves merely in the middle of the pack with 4.66 implied runs tonight. To say Bo Bichette’s first 11 major league games (53 PAs) have been a smashing success, would be a massive understatement. He’s maintained a 234 wRC+ and has an extra-base hits in his last nine games, something not done by a rookie since Ted Williams. Vlad Jr. has just a 76 wRC+ and .138 ISO vs LHP this year, but with a .338 xwOBA that’s 49 points above his actual mark. He has a 203 wRC+ with four HRs over his last 11 games as well, though just two for his last 14. The projected middle of the lineup also includes Lourdes Gurriel, who has been a terror against southpaws over the last calendar year (162 wRC+, .348 ISO) along with Randal Grichuk (118 wRC+, .219 ISO). Happ has allowed RHBs a .335 wOBA (.339 xwOBA) over the last calendar year with just a 33.8% ground ball rate.

Taylor Clarke has allowed 13 HRs in 51.2 innings behind a 16.8 K% and board high 12.9% Barrels/BBE. No other pitcher on the slate is within two points of that latter mark. Luckily for him, Kevin’s forecast does not suggest that the opposition will get much of a weather boost against Clarke in this road start. Much more unfortunately for him, that opposing team will be the Yankees, who are implied for a ridiculous 6.6 runs that no team outside Coors is within one-half run of. Also unfortunate for Clarke is that batters from either side of the plate have exceeded a .380 wOBA against him. Statcast drops RHBs to a .349 xwOBA, but that still does not leave him in anything close to an envious position. Each of the first eight batters in the projected order for the Yankees have at least a 105 wRC+ with an ISO above .150 vs RHP over the last calendar year. Remove leadoff man DJ LeMahieu (105 wRC+, .151 ISO) and eighth hole projection Mike Tauchman (108 wRC+, .226 ISO) and the remaining six are all above a 110 wRC+ and .180 vs RHP over that span. Aaron Hicks (136 wRC+, .249 ISO) is the top power bat via ISO with the second best wRC+ by these standards. It would be safe and perhaps a bit obvious to say that building daily fantasy lineups around Yankee bats as an alternative to Coors carries abundant upside.

J.A. Happ might not be a bad target to focus an attack on either in a much less obvious spot (Diamondbacks 4.4 implied runs). The reasoning is simple. He has struggled (18.3 HR/FB, 5.23 ERA, 6.85 DRA, 88.9 mph aEV, 8.1% Barrels/BBE), while the Diamondbacks have not (112 wRC+, 21.2 K%, 17 HR/FB, 26 Hard-Soft% vs LHP). Fourteen of Happ’s 23 HRs have been allowed at home. Ketel Marte (161 wRC+, .298 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Eduardo Escobar (155 wRC+, .261 ISO) are key bats. RHBs have a .327 wOBA, .332 xwOBA against Happ over the last calendar year.

J.A. Happ continues to be limited to twice through the lineup, but has pitched well in Kansas City and against Boston over his last two outings, though he does keep allowing the HRs (15 in 12 starts). He has a 28 K% over the last month, but still a 4.99 FIP. .He has only issued as many walks as HRs for the season, but he and Edwin Jackson have the highest Z-O-Swing% on the board (41.7% & 42.3%). With the strikeouts, the HRs become a bit more bearable, but Happ is a two way pitcher tonight. He’s an arm players can utilize for around $8K against an offense with 80 wRC+ and 24 K% vs LHP. However, despite their 10.7 HR/FB against southpaws as well, they did flash some RH power last night. RHBs have a .321 wOBA (.320 xwOBA) against Happ since last season with just a 32.9 GB%, while the Blue Jays have four RHBs above a .200 ISO against LHP over the last calendar year. Lourdes Gurriel (192 wRC+, .290 ISO) has just been destroying them. Vladimir Guerrero (95 wRC+, .233 ISO) has just a .208 BABIP against southpaws, but a .401 xwOBA that’s 82 points above his actual mark. Randal Grichuk (136 wRC+, .252 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (86 wRC+, .202 ISO) might be additional bats of interest here. The Blue Jays are closer to the bottom of the board than the top at 4.13 implied runs, so not many players should be expected to be on them. The one concern here is that after Happ gets his five innings in, the Yankees will throw an elite bullpen into action. On the other side, Edwin Jackson has a 14.1 K%, 28.6 HR/FB, 35.4 Hard-Soft%, 90.8 Z-Contact%, 13.22 ERA, 5.22 SIERA, 10.49 DRA, .405 xwOBA, 91.4 mph aEV and 13.8% Barrels/BBE. More than enough said. Only the Rangers (facing David Hess at home) are expected to do more damage than the Yankees tonight.

Today is the best day of the post-season for MLB DFS, as it's the only day players are guaranteed four games. It's not surprising that it's a pitcher friendly slate (no team above 4.5 implied runs), but not a single pitcher exceeds $10K on DraftKings, though three are above $10K on FanDuel. Both Corey Kluber (35.3 K%, 2.56 SIERA, .262 xwOBA last 30 days) and Justin Verlander (41.7 K%, 1.92 SIERA, .209 xwOBA last 30 days) finished the season with a flourish and are pitching in one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. The case against them is that both the Astros (19.2%) and Indians (18.8%) have two of the lowest strikeout rates in the league against RHP. Chris Sale (38.4 K%, 2.27 SIERA, .240 xwOBA this season) is the other high priced pitcher today and he comes with some concerns, mostly a significant velocity drop in his last start, though he did reach 92 pitches, his most since returning from the DL. He also has to contend with the Yankees (115 wRC+, 18.4 HR/FB vs LHP) in the most positive run environment on the board, though temperatures are expected to be in the 50s with the Yankees implied for just 3.2 runs. All of these factors combine to make Sale an interesting GPP option. J.A. Happ (26.3 K%, 3.64 SIERA, .315 xwOBA) will be receiving the same weather neutralizing benefit and costs less against an offense less potent against LHP (92 wRC+) and respectably struck out 13 of 49 Red Sox, allowing four ERs in 12 IP as a Yankee. Clayton Kershaw (23.9 K%, 3.45 SIERA, .291 xwOBA) faces a contact prone Atlanta offense (107 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs LHP), though they were shut down by another southpaw last night. While Anibal Sanchez (24.4 K%, 3.85 SIERA, .285 xwOBA) and Tyler Anderson (22.3 K%, 4.22 SIERA, .308 xwOBA) are both fine pitchers at a lower cost, both are facing difficult offenses (Dodgers 116 wRC+ vs RHP, Brewers 15.8 HR/FB vs LHP) with potentially quicker hooks as their teams each trail in their series. Jhoulys Chacin (19.6 K%, 4.59 SIERA, .331 xwOBA) is the worst pitcher on the board by most metrics, but also someone players may want to look at in their SP2 spot on DraftKings ($5.2K). He pitched great in Chicago and the Rockies struggle against RHP (82 wRC+) and on the road (78 wRC+). Additionally, the Milwaukee bullpen was worn out last night, while owning the lead in the series may give him a bit longer leash.

Three pitchers reach exceed the $10K price point on both sites on Friday night, two more on DraftKings only. Patrick Corbin (31 K%, 2.89 SIERA, .294 xwOBA) could be a dark horse Cy Young candidate some years and has a nice matchup in San Diego (87 wRC+, 16.2 K-BB% vs LHP) for less than $11K. Hyun-Jin Ryu (28.5 K%, 3.06 SIERA, .277 xwOBA) has the top xwOBA on the board and a great matchup at home against the Giants (80 wRC+, 16.1 K-BB% vs LHP). However, he's topped out at 93 pitches this season and the position of the Dodgers in the standings could give him a shorter leash. Gerrit Cole (35.1 K%, 2.88 SIERA, .284 xwOBA) has a great matchup in Baltimore (90 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP) too, but it’s a significant park downgrade in a game where the Astros have absolutely no reason to extend him. Mike Clevinger (25.7 K%, 3.87 SIERA, .298 xwOBA) is likewise only getting his work in against the Royals (92 wRC+ vs RHP), though in some pitcher favorable conditions in Kansas City. J.A. Happ (26.2 K%, 3.64 SIERA, .315 xwOBA) is pitching a meaningful game for the Yankees, who want to play the wild card game at home, but he's pitching that game at Fenway, where the Red Sox have a 115 wRC+, though only a 93 wRC+ vs LHP.