J.J. Hardy Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Orioles are projected only behind the offense they are facing tonight (4.8 runs) against Kyle Kendrick, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2015, when he had an ERA and FIP over six, but somehow merited a promotion with seven HRs allowed in 27 innings at AAA. Such is the state of the Boston pitching staff. While it is chilly in Boston tonight with temperatures in the mid-50s winds 11 mph out to left), expectations are for a pummeling tonight with Manny Machado (130 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP since 2015) nearly a must have bat (176 wRC+, 68.4 Hard% over the last week). Additionally, Adam Jones (114 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Seth Smith (119 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP since 2015) projecting as top values on FanDuel, while Smith also earns honors on DraftKings as well (2.16 Pt/$/K) according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections. This is a strongly stackable lineup with the possible exception of the Catcher position. Even J.J. Hardy merits consideration on FanDuel for just $2.1K.

In 60 career PAs, Brian McCann has taken Ricky Nolasco deep, by far the highest BvP total on the board today, but we must consider that many of those battles occurred when both playing for NL East teams. Both are regarded as different players now, though McCann still has some pop in his bat. In fact, only five BBE have been recorded by Statcast between the two (91.9 mph aEV). J.J. Hardy has the second most HRs (3) against the pitcher he is facing tonight, but again, his battles against Bronson Arroyo are so far in the past, Statcast was only a glimmer in MLB's eye at the time, without a record of a single one of those batted balls. Among those with at least 10 recorded BBE against a particular pitcher, Xander Bogaerts has the highest aEV (96.6 mph, 11 BBE) against Marcus Stroman. He's even been moved to the leadoff spot tonight and has three extra-base hits in 17 PAs against Stroman, normally an elite ground ball generator, in his career. David Freese (94.6 mph aEV) and Gregory Polanco (94 mph aEV) are next highest on that list against Mike Leake, while Andrew McCutchen has two HRs against him, but just an 85.9 mph aEV on 17 BBE.

Francisco Liriano facing the Orioles is a matchup with many opportunities. He has a 14.8 K-BB% with a league average walk rate since the trade. His hard contact rate remains around 34% with an 18.9 HR/FB and 50% ground ball rate, so perhaps the drop to a .250 BABIP is a fluke, but he has at least been useful and pitched into the sixth inning in all but one start. The Orioles have a 15.8 K-BB% on the road and struggle with LHP (83 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 11.8 HR/FB). No pitcher on the board has a strikeout rate above 25% tonight nor beats his 13.4 SwStr% over the last month. Players may want to look at his upside for around $8K on either site. He does occasionally get hit hard by RHBs though (.344 wOBA, 21 HRs this season) and no Baltimore bat on DraftKings is priced above $4K with just three of them above $3K. While Machado (150 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Hardy (104 wRC+, .190 ISO) have been the only above average bats against LHP this year, Mark Trumbo (59 wRC+) does add power (.219 ISO) and has a 1654 wRC+ over the last week.

Reynaldo Lopez hasn't pitched consistently as well as he did at AAA this season through four starts, but striking out 11 of 28 Braves in his last start has brought his 25.5 K% more in line with recent minor league numbers and he does have a double digit SwStr% in three of his four starts. There is some upside in this arm that players can consider on a two pitcher site like DraftKings for just $5.8K, but he is in a very difficult spot in Baltimore tonight (17.7 HR/FB at home, 17.5 HR/FB vs RHP). The Orioles will strike out a little bit though (21.9 K% vs RHP). Lopez has really struggled with RHBs so far (.408 wOBA), while limiting LHBs (.256 wOBA), though both of his HRs have gone to LHBs and he struggled with neither in the minors. RHBs also have just a 21.4 Hard% against him, so that's likely a little bit of a fluke so far. The Orioles are projected for five runs currently, which is second best, but they're carrying some high price tags against a pitcher Vegas and the public may be under-rating. This is a very powerful lineup though. Only Wieters and Hardy have a wRC+ below 115 and ISO below .200 vs RHP since last season. The one unexpected entry is Steve Pearce in the two hole. He costs just $3.3K on DraftKings and has been fairly proficient vs RHP since last season (118 wRC+, .228 ISO).

Ross Detwiler has worked mostly out of the bullpen the past couple of seasons and not very well. He does have a bit over 60 major league innings since the beginning of last year, in which RHBs have a .477 wOBA with 10 HRs and more walks than strikeouts. This perhaps justifies J.J. Hardy (88 wRC+ vs LHP this season) moving into the 2nd slot in the batting order and Chris Davis (104 wRC+, .207 ISO vs LHP this year) dropping down to 6th. Manny Machado (145 wRC+, .204 ISO vs LHP this season) is the top bat here regardless, though he's extremely expensive on either site. The Orioles have struggled against LHP this year, despite Mark Trumbo's .266 ISO against them, Davis and Machado are the only bats with a wRC+ above 95 this year. Add in a difficult park in Oakland and it's probably why they're not projected for five runs or more (4.7) against a terrible pitcher. Hardy adds some value at SS due to the lineup bump, while Machado and Trumbo remain firmly in play, but there may not be many bargains here.

Stacking in Petco is rarely advocated, but Erik Johnson has been hammered by batters from both sides since last season (LHBs - .375 wOBA, 41 Hard%, RHBs - .438 wOBA, 38.7 Hard%). All Baltimore bats except for Hardy have a wRC+ above 115 vs RHP this season and an overall wRC+ above 130 over the last week. Of that group, only Kim does not have a .200+ ISO vs RHP this season. Orioles bats are a great pivot from Coors tonight, even at higher prices. Chris Davis has a .320 ISO vs RHP since last season.

It's going to be a hot on in Arlington tonight, and we should expect the Orioles RH bats to have productive days at the plate against LH Derek Holland. The Rangers lefty has really struggled with walks this season (4.7 K-BB% vs. RHs) which has continually put him in tough spots to this point, and it doesn't help that he's also having issues with the long ball (1.5 HR/9 vs. RHs). Mark Trumbo is the top play on the Baltimore side with a few others very close behind. The Orioles clean-up hitter owns an elite .361 ISO against LHP, and that number actually jumps to .533 on the road, although the sample size is very small there. Trumbo’s 40.9 hard% goes right along with his power potential and even with Manny Machado out of the Orioles lineup, they still boast plenty of talent from the right side. Adam Jones is the other lefty masher in this lineup, although his numbers against LHs haven't been great this season. If he maintains his 40.0 hard% against LHs, expect his .233 BABIP to rise quickly. Joey Rickard, Matt Wieters and J.J. Hardy are elite value plays in this spot, and they're even more valuable given the high-end pitching you'll likely want to spend up for.

A struggling Adam Jones with just a 55 wRC+, 23.8 Hard% over the last week and 86 wRC+ vs LHP since last year is dropped down in the order to 5th tonight against John Danks, who should be the most popular target for DFS lineups. All of his ERA estimators are above five and a half with a 6.23 ERA to go along. He's been about average vs LHBs (.314 wOBA), but has allowed RHBs a .356 wOBA since last season. Strangely, the Orioles have a couple of reverse platoon split guys in their lineup, including Manny Machado, who at least hits LHP at a better rate than Jones (101 wRC+ since 2015). Machado has just a 42 wRC+ over the last week, but a 39.1 Hard%. Mark Trumbo is likely the top dog here. He has a 95.82 mph exit velocity this season and drills LHP (146 wRC+, .283 ISO, 40.1 Hard%) since last season. Chris Davis brings an average bat (103 wRC+, .180 ISO) against lefties, while the rookie Rickard should also be a part of stacks batting leadoff for a team projected for 4.57 runs. It's often okay to look further down the lineup for scarce positions on short slates, but J.J. Hardy has just a 33 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. Caleb Joseph, tonight's Catcher, does have a 34.9 Hard% against LHP since 2015 though.

Marco Estrada has never thrown more ground balls than fly balls in a season. This and a 12.7 IFFB% with a 17.5 LD% is a big part of the reason he has a career .262 BABIP, but he had a .216 BABIP last year and there's no way he's repeating that. He's been able to get swings and misses at a better than league average rate with his 9.9 SwStr% last year being his lowest mark, but this is an incredibly dangerous spot for a pitcher with a career 11.0 HR/FB and 32.2 Hard%. They owon't stay this hot, but the Orioles have a 151 wRC+ and 19.6 HR/FB vs RHP with a 34.2 Hard%. For his career, Estrada has absolutely no platoon split meaning we can stack up our Orioles tonight with an expectation of power from either side. Davis (166 wRC+, .357 ISO, .45.2 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) and Machado (159, .252, 35%) are the obvious top choices, while Jonathan Schoop (132, .262, 39.6%) is the perhaps the value play, but with a poor lineup spot. He has a 103.4 average Exit Velocity off Estrada in four batted balls since last year. Mark Trumbo (229 wRC+ last seven days, 95.82 average Exit Velocity in 2016) has been crushing the ball, but there really isn't a batter that needs to be avoided in this lineup as they have the highest projected run total tonight (4.75). Even J.J. Hardy has a 94.2 average EV this year.