Jack Flaherty Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Nobody expected Jack Flaherty to sustain his second half 2019 pace (0.91 ERA over 99.1 IP), but a 4.91 ERA in nine starts last year was unsightly and somewhat corroborated by Statcast (5.01 xERA), though additional estimators were about a run lower. However, his strikeout rate (28.8%) dropped only a point and his SwStr rate (14.3%) even improved. Batters were able to lay off pitches outside the zone (29 O-Swing%) and connect more inside of it (83.3 Z-Contact%). Flaherty had a 31.7 LD%, though just 6.9% Barrels/BBE and 87.7 mph EV. There’s a good chance that all the stops and fits of the 2020 season affected him too. He made his first start on July 24th and lasted just nine batters in his second one on August 19th. His 2020 season was a mess, but all the tools still appear to be there for a big rebound. There was no drop off in velocity and only a minor one in spin rates. The Cincinnati offense is also due for a rebound. They hit .212, but with some power, resulting in a 91 wRC+. And it’s a very power friendly park, but the April weather may offset the risk somewhat. The Reds don’t strike out a ton, but Nick Castellanos and Eugenio Suarez were both above a 30% last year against RHP and could see Flaherty three times each. RHBs have just a .247 wOBA against Flaherty since 2019. At exactly $8.6K on either site, this is a pitcher with more than enough talent to far exceed his price tag.

Wednesday’s MLB slate features two elimination games in the National League. This means that no starting pitcher is safe from the quick hook, although the Cardinals certainly have their best pitcher on the mound. Jack Flaherty struck out eight of the 29 Braves he faced, walking just one with a single HR and three earned runs despite keeping 60% of his contact on the ground. He ties for the slate lead with a 29.9 K% this year and his 2.75 ERA tops the board by more than a full half run, though his estimators are more in line with the two pitchers in Los Angeles tonight. Flaherty’s 80.6 Z-Contact% is best on the board by nearly four full points and his 86.1 mph aEV is best on the board by more than a mile per hour. At Flaherty’s $7.4K price tag on DraftKings, he may be the best value there. The Braves had a 23.2 K% vs RHP this year, although today’s specific lineup features just four batters below a 17 K%.

Offensively, it’s a very tight board with only the Nationals outside a 3.75 to 4.0 implied run range. Atlanta is the much more hitter friendly run environment here too. The surprise in this lineup is Adam Duvall (91 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP this year), who’s had some big hits in this series, replacing Matt Joyce. While Flaherty had just 18 points separating his wOBA between RH and LH batters this season (both below .270), his xwOBA pushed that past 60 points (LHBs .306), making this a questionable decision. A healthy Freddie Freeman (154 wRC+, .280 ISO) would be the top bat in this spot, but there’s some question about how healthy he really is. Ozzie Albies (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .147 ISO) are more league average bats against RHP, while Brian McCann (97 wRC+, .178 ISO) is certainly viable behind the plate here.

Mike Foltynewicz has the worst season numbers on the board. His 21.4 K% is the only mark below 29% and his estimators (all above four) are the only ones above four. In fact, he owns the only DRA above three and his .325 xwOBA is worst on the board by exactly 50 points. That said, he struck out seven of 24 Cardinals, allowing just three hits without a run in his first start of the series and finished up on quite the run. After being recalled to the majors in August, he has a 2.65 ERA and 3.77 FIP with a 16.5 K-BB% in 10 starts. With the top park neutral matchup on the board (Cardinals 93 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), Folty is at least viable in a secondary DraftKings spot at the lowest price on the board ($6K). Dexter Fowler (107 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP) is the lowest priced Cardinal on DraftKings ($3.7K) and potentially the top value bat in this game (also below $3K on FanDuel). Marcell Ozuna (113 wRC+, .224 ISO) has been heating up in this series. Paul DeJong (104 wRC+, .228 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP this year. Yadiers Molina (77 wRC+) is the only batter in the lineup outside a 97-113 wRC+ range vs RHP this year.

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for the second straight day should make Atlanta the most positive run environment on the board again today, though these are projected to be two middle of the board offenses, each within a quarter of a run of four implied runs. Jack Flaherty finished the season with a second half as hot as the weather in Atlanta today. Over his last 16 starts, he had a 0.98 ERA with a 2.32 FIP, 3.27 xFIP and 27.2 K-BB%. His 86.1 mph aEV this season is lowest on the board. Considering that both teams emptied the bullpen last night and the Cardinals have a one game lead, St Louis may be more incentivized to push him deeper into this game. Flaherty is the second most expensive arm on FanDuel, but possibly a strong value on DraftKings for $8.2K, despite the unfriendly conditions. The Atlanta lineup has just a 19.3 combined K% vs RHP this year, according to PlateIQ with only three non-pitcher bats above a 20 K%, so it’s not going to be easy.

Mike Foltynewicz is worst on the board in terms of strikeout rate (21.4%), Z-O-Swing (44.9%), SIERA (4.71), FIP (4.97) and 95+ mph EV (39.5%), many of those stats by a wide margin. However, since returning to the majors in August, he generated a 2.65 ERA and 3.77 FIP with a 23.8 K% over his final 10 starts. He also faces the worst offense on the board (Cardinals 93 wRC+, 23.2 K%, 13.9 HR/FB vs RHP). Folty is certainly a useful secondary arm on DraftKings at the lowest price point on the board ($6.2K). This is also a spot to look at some St Louis bats as well. Dexter Fowler (109 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (114 wRC+, .228 ISO) may have the most value. RHBs (.328 wOBA, .337 xwOBA) actually performed better against Foltynewicz than LHBs (.307 wRC+, .311 xwOBA) this year.

Jack Flaherty has a number of positive factors working for him today vs. the Cubs. For one, he’s been one of (if not the best) the best pitchers in baseball over the past few months: since July 7th, Flaherty has posted a ridiculous 1 ERA / 2.35 FIP, 27.5% K-BB and .191 wOBA allowed. Flaherty has also been much better in home starts over the course of his career with a 2.92 ERA / 3.62 FIP, 23.3% K-BB, 0.93 WHIP and .254 wOBA allowed compared to a 3.56 ERA / 3.90 FIP, 18.8% K-BB, 1.18 WHIP and .291 wOBA allowed. Flaherty gets a matchup with a Cubs team that is missing its four best hitters (Rizzo, Baez, Castellanos, Bryant) and has nothing to play for, while the Cardinals are trying to lock up their division. The Cubs lineup has just two batters with an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .335 on the year. Flaherty is way too cheap at just $9.8k on Draftkings and is a nice play on Fanduel as well even with a steeper $11k tag. The Cubs currently have just a 2.97 implied total vs. Flaherty and the Cards.