Jacob deGrom Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

We enter the last Friday of the baseball season with a 13 game slate on FanDuel and 14 on DraftKings, which could become 13 with the second game of the double-header in Washington currently in the path of Hurricane Ian. Thankfully, that appears to be the only area at risk tonight. This slate includes an overwhelming seven $10K pitchers (five on DraftKings), but no others exceeding $9K on both sites. There is some talent on this board, but also increased risk at the end of the year.

It was bound to happen eventually, but nobody guessed that the A’s would be the team to spoil Jacob deGrom. Five runs over four innings, striking out just five of 22 batters, while doubling his season walk total to eight. Sure, he also allowed six runs over his previous 11 innings to the Cubs and Pirates, but with 23 strikeouts (43 batters faced) and no walks, while eventually tiring in the sixth inning. Something to watch is that the velocity has been dipping a bit, but that could just be his arm getting used to a regular pitching schedule after so much missed time plus a shortened 2020. The 16.3 SwStr% against the A’s was his worst of the season. DeGrom has a 38.2 K-BB%, 73.7% Z-Contact% and 29.7% hard hit rate. All of it’s still absurd. His 2.93 ERA is well above estimators ranging from a 1.60 xFIP to a 2.20 DRA. This game certainly means something in Atlanta. It’s a park downgrade and there are expected to be some winds (10 mph out to CF), but this game/series is otherwise expected to escape Ian at this point. Atlanta is a dangerous, but high upside matchup (107 wRC+, 25.1 K%, 15.9 HR/FB vs RHP). DeGrom is the most expensive pitcher, the top projected one and the top projected value on both sites and most of those things by a wide margin tonight. For a detailed breakdown of all seven pitchers hitting $10K tonight, check out Friday's PlateIQ Live Blog.

FanDuel is offering a 10 game Tuesday night slate, while DraftKings has again made the decision to include the second game of a double header in Toronto that does not have confirmed pitchers as of this writing. This is still a slate that includes five pitchers at $10K or above and another reaching $9K on both sites. Costing within $200 of $12K on either site, Jacob deGrom struck out “only” eight of 24 Pirates last time out with his lowest swinging strike rate of the year (17.6%). He’s allowed a total of 20 hits and five barrels (5.9%) over 43.1 innings with a 38.8 K-BB%. He has five straight Quality Starts and two seven inning outings with less than 95 pitches in a row, while his 1.66 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators with the exception of a 2.40 DRA that must be out of it’s mind. The Cub (98 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP) are the second worst offense against fastballs since the break (-0.76 wFB/C). Let’s see how they do against 100 mph at the letters. The weather is projected to be hitter friendly at Citi Field tonight, but who cares? DeGrom will eventually have an off start, but who wants to actually bet on that happening? His overall raw point total and value projections are through the roof tonight, far beyond any other pitcher on the board…on the season? Ever? The Cubs have a real full game run total of 1.88 tonight. For much more on tonight’s most expensive pitchers, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

A nine game Wednesday night slate finds four pitchers reaching the $10K price point on FanDuel (two on DraftKings), but no others exceeding $9K on both sites. Most expensively, Jacob deGrom has struck out 46 of 103 batters faced (21.9 SwStr%) with two walks and three barrels (5.5%). His slider has a 52.3 Whiff%. DRA thinks he “deserves” a 2.46 ERA. Also, DRA is stupid. All other estimators are well below two. Despite the toughest matchup on the board (Dodgers 125 wRC+, 21.1 K%, 10.0 BB% vs RHP), deGrom projects in an essential tie for the top spot on the board, which basically means that deGrom is always going to be the top projected pitcher on any board. Citi Field is a negative run environment, but with slight hitter friendly weather expectations via Weather Edge. Find tonight’s top projected value and worst projected value in Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

A cozy little six game Thursday night slate still includes three $10K pitchers (two on DraftKings), though nobody else exceeding $9K on both sites. How good do you have to be when striking out nine of 25 Braves, allowing only five hits without a walk and three runs over 6.2 innings is a massive disappointment? That’s what life is like when you’re Jacob deGrom, who has only returned from a year long absence to strike out 37 of 81 batters so far (22.9 SwStr%), while walking just one and allowing two barrels (4.7%). His 2.31 ERA is below a 2.63 DRA (what are they smoking?), but more than three-quarters of a run above every other estimator. Go ahead and let that sink in, while you think about what he’s likely to do to the Rockies (85 wRC+, 21.2 K% vs RHP), who are the sixth worst offense in baseball against fastballs (-0.23 wFB/C). The most expensive pitcher on the board ($12.5K on FanDuel even with a likely pitch count around 85) is essentially tied for the top projected spot on DraftKings, but only second best on FanDuel by just a couple of points. DeGrom projects as the second best value on either site. For more on tonight’s top arms, including a pitcher who may project better than deGrom, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The most interesting thing about Tuesday’s 14 game slate is that it’s both pitching rich with six pitchers reaching the $10K mark on either FanDuel, DraftKings or both and has the potential for several weather aided hitter boosts, according to Weather Edge. The easy answer to all of your pitching questions that don’t concern ownership is Jacob deGrom. He is at least $11.5K and more than $1K more than any other pitcher on either site and is pitching in one of those potentially weather boosted parks, but he’s so damn good and the park is such a negative run environment that even a large boost won’t hurt him too much, especially when you consider the matchup. DeGrom allowed three runs to the Braves in the first inning last time out after allowing two runs for the first time in a start this year the previous time out. He then hulked out and struck out 14 Braves without allowing another run through seven innings. How dominant has he been? He has a 45.3 K% and his 21.7 SwStr% is higher than half the pitchers’ on this slate’s strikeout rates. A 2.16 DRA is his worst estimator by nearly half a run. Why not also give the best pitcher the best matchup? Omar Narvaez is the only batter in the projected Milwaukee lineup below a 24.5 K% vs RHP since 2020. Expect a perfect game with 24 strikeouts for deGrom in a 1-0 loss.

Carlos Rodon and Austin Nola are the only other two pitchers reaching $10K on both sites. Rodon has at least eight strikeouts in eight straight starts and 12 of 14 overall. The walk rate has climbed above 10% over his last five starts, which has contributed to him being unable to go beyond five innings in three of them after only failing to complete six in three of his first nine. His 2.37 ERA is below all of his estimators (82.4 LOB%, 9.1 HR/FB), the worst of which is still just a 3.15 DRA though. While the Twins have a 108 wRC+ and 16.5 HR/FB with just a 22.8 K% vs LHP, the Minnesota lineup has been dealing with injuries to most of their RH power in Buxton, Donaldson and Cruz. Rodon also has some weather concerns, as it’s the only game on the slate with a hint of Orange in the forecast currently.

Nola is exactly $10K on either site. His starts have had a lot more volatility or variance than you’d like or expect to see out of him. Just looking at his last five starts, he’s allowed multiple home runs three times with at least four runs allowed in each of the three, but no runs in the other two. He has strikeout totals of 11, 12, 1, 9, 7 and 2 over his last six starts. Nola has a 50% career ground ball rate coming into this year, but has only been above that mark twice in 17 starts this year and has been below 40% on 11 occasions. With a .331 BABIP, estimators are about a run below his 4.44 ERA, the worst of which is a 3.72 xERA. Nola makes an interesting leverage play today because of the newly found strikeout upside, but also because he’s in both a high upside, but very dangerous spot. It’s Wrigley, it’s hot and the wind is blowing out, but the Cubs have an 89 wRC+ and board high 26.8 K% vs RHP this season. Wind, heat, humidity…none of it matters if you’re not making contact.

Remaining pitchers hitting the $10K mark on FanDuel only including Chris Bassitt, Framber Valdez and Nathan Eovaldi. Bassitt’s velocity has been dropping and he had just a 7.4 SwStr% in June, but otherwise, all he does is throw quality starts. He’s failed to so only six times this season and has completed seven innings seven times. All estimators are above his 3.04 ERA (78.2 LOB%, 8.6 HR/FB), but all are below four. However, he’s in Houston and the Astros should be getting some bats back tonight. Over his last two starts, Eovaldi has allowed one run over 14.2 innings without a walk and six strikeouts in each. He’s ridden excellent control (4.7 BB%) and strong contact management (5.1% Barrels/BBE). Non-FIP estimators (4.5 HR/FB) are a bit above his 3.41 ERA with only his DRA (4.15) above four. He may not have the upside to justify his price tag on the road against the Angels (106 wRC+ vs RHP), which Statcast considers the most home friendly park for LHBs. The Angels have a 121 wRC+ and 18.9 HR/FB at home this year. Valdez issued five walks to Cleveland last time out, but still managed to complete seven innings for the fifth time in his last six starts and exceed a 70 GB% for the sixth time in seven starts overall. The sheer volume of work generally gets him to acceptable strikeout totals with just a 22.4 K%. The A’s have been merely league average vs LHP this year (100 wRC+) and four of nine batters in the projected lineup exceed a 26.5 K% vs LHP since 2020. Valdez may have the highest floor here, but again, deGrom is the easy non-ownership answer and Nola the high upside leverage play with Rodon another risky option due to weather concerns.

Jacob deGrom will be punishing the Cardinals this evening. He’s the only pitcher to reach $10K on both sites and may still be the top value on a second consecutive slate that may be affected by weather. The good news is that the rain in St Louis is more likely to cause a late start than delay, which shouldn’t affect deGrom. In his worst start of the season last time out, he still struck out nine of 22 Red Sox with an 18.3 SwStr%, walking one and allowing a single run over six innings on three hits. Is that his floor now? His 2.05 DRA is his only estimator above one and a half! You don’t think this is sustainable and that it’s merely part of some extraordinary stretch, but the numbers beneath the numbers are just simply ridiculous. The only thing he doesn’t do well is hold runners because he never gets any practice. St Louis is also one of the more pitcher friendly environments in baseball, especially under cooler conditions tonight. If the game were somehow postponed because the Cardinals did not want to face deGrom, he may no longer be the top value.

Aaron Nola exceeds $10K on DraftKings in a fine matchup with the Brewers. Just two batters in the projected lineup are below a 23 K% vs RHP since 2019. Strikeouts are down for Nola this year (25.8%, 12 SwStr%), but both numbers are more in line with his career rates than last season (33.2%, 13.4 SwStr%), so perhaps that was the aberration in a truncated season. He continues to manage contact well (87.7 mph EV, 4.8% Barrels/BBE) and has walked just five. Not a single estimator is even a half run removed from his 3.11 ERA. He’s certainly a viable alternative if ownership projects to land too heavily in deGrom, but there are also potential weather issues in this game with it currently coded Orange in the forecast. The run environment is likely to be much more positive than St Louis too.

The last piece to this high end pitching puzzle tonight is Trevor Bauer, only available on DraftKings, in Game Two of the double header at Wrigley. Generally, a seven inning cap is not much of a big deal for pitchers these days, but Bauer may be one of the few where it matters, especially at $10.7K. He’s capped, but still certainly viable with the conditions (cold with wind blowing in) expected to be very pitcher friendly tonight. This should limit any issues Bauer has had with hard contact this year (89.9 mph EV, 8.0% Barrels/BBE, 35.6 GB%) behind his 29.1 K-BB%. Four of eight Cubs tentatively projected for Game Two exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019.

(Important Note: The Mets & Rockies have been PPD. Jacob deGrom will NOT pitch tonight.) Back in the glory days, we’d take a look at tonight’s highest priced arms, see Jacob deGrom at Coors and Max Scherzer at home against…well, anyone and that would be it. Problem easily solved, but circumstances and conditions have dictated that it’s still likely a no contest, but very likely in the other direction.

Scherzer has a 17.7 SwStr% that’s second best on the board on Friday night with a 29.5 K-BB%. The problem has come when batters make contact, as he’s generated more Barrels (six) than ground balls (five). His velocity is also down a mile and a half per hour. In fact, he only had one game with a lower average exit velocity last year than either game this year. Meanwhile, deGrom is sitting on a 22.1 SwStr% that would be an average strikeout rate on today’s board and Coors is no longer an immediate cross off for opposing daily fantasy pitchers. To start with, the Rockies project a lineup that includes just two batters above a 100 wRC+ and only three below a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019. Then we can look at a weather forecast which predicts freezing temperatures and snow showers (though Kevin thinks they’ll still play) that should take some of the sting out of Coors. Jacob deGrom is not only your top pitcher on Friday night, but potentially still the top value on either site at $11K.

Additional high end options also have key concerns, as Walker Buehler has just eight strikeouts with a 6.1 SwStr% through two starts. He’s allowed four Barrels and his velocity is down over a mile per hour. He also has to face the San Diego offense with Fernando Tatis Jr. back. Steven Matz is not only a great shock as the third highest priced pitcher on FanDuel, but the forecast projects this game as the most likely to not play in Kansas City. Jose Urquidy is also a pitcher who exceeds $10K on DraftKings, but does not belong that far north in the spectrum. He does find himself in a high upside spot in Seattle against a projected lineup with just four players south of a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019. As always, ownership projections should play a key part in decision making, but deGrom is not a pitcher to be avoided at Coors tonight.

Jacob deGrom will test his balky hamstring on Monday. A healthy deGrom is the top pitcher on the slate (30 K-BB%). His 72.6 Z-Contact% is nearly six points better than the next best pitcher tonight. A 2.85 SIERA is the only estimator more than a half run removed from deGrom’s 2.09 ERA. Considering he struck out just one of 11 batters in his last start before being removed, this is a tricky situation. With Castillo and Woodruff being removed from the main slate on FanDuel, the next most expensive pitcher is Adam Wainwright at $2K less than deGrom. If he’s healthy, he’s in a high upside spot (Rays 25.5 K% vs RHP) that you don’t want to risk missing out on in an extremely negative run environment. On the flip side, there are few, if any, very positive run environments on a six game slate tonight and the Mets may have extra incentive to push deGrom tonight with their post-season hopes hanging in the balance and just a week left. This is the perfect opportunity to check out projected ownership percentages tonight and let them be your guide, but at least some exposure to deGrom is probably warranted.

Jacob deGrom has a 37.8 K% and 21.2 SwStr%. If his SwStr% were his K%, he’d sit near the middle of tonight’s board. Name an important category and he probably leads the slate: K%, SwStr%, xwOBA (.249), xERA (2.41), ERA (1.67), SIERA (2.71), xFIP (2.44), DRA (2.39) and FIP (1.96). Most of them are even by a large margin. The Phillies are down Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto from an offense that only has a 98 wRC+ and 12.9 HR/FB vs RHP in the first place. Among those in the projected lineup, only Bryce Harper is above a .345 wOBA or .200 ISO vs RHP since last season and even he has slumped his way to just a 90 wRC+ over the last month. This is a better matchup than it may seem for the top pitcher in the National League, who should be the top pitcher on the board, $200 more than Gerrit Cole on FanDuel.