Jacob Faria Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Yankees (4.67 implied runs) are in their own little range, without another offense within a quarter of a run in either direction. Jacob Faria will be the opposing pitcher, but he has not faced more than 18 batters in an outing since returning in August and no more than 15 since his first outing back. Faria has allowed just a .311 wOBA to RHBs this year (LHBs .340), but batters from either side of the plate are above a .370 xwOBA against him. The Yankees will see a lot of the Tampa Bay bullpen tonight, but most of their lineup hits pitchers from either side well. The top third of the order is of interest tonight with Andrew McCutchen (114 wRC+, .161 ISO vs RHP this season) leading off, Aaron Judge (147 wRC+, .247 ISO) behind him and Luke Voit (153 wRC+, .295 ISO) in the third spot.

As is the usual case, without a single starting pitcher now listed on their depth chart, the Rays will be throwing their bullpen at the Angels tonight in Tampa Bay. Tyler Glasnow, who had been pitching out of the pen for the Pirates, will start. Jason Faria has been activated and is also expected to pitch at some point. No Shohei Ohtani tonight, but Mike Trout (189 wRC+, .326 ISO) and Justin Upton (132 wRC+, .236 ISO) should be in a position to succeed no matter what the Rays throw at them. Kole Calhoun (106 wRC+, .199 ISO) bats near the top of the lineup and has been rebounding (264 wRC+ last seven days). David Fletcher has a 131 wRC+ vs RHP, but with just a .079 ISO and .286 xwOBA.

The Red Sox have just a 4.31 implied run line against Jacob Faria tonight, but the question is why. He's faced them twice (in his first two starts) this season with the following results: 5.2 IP - 9 H - 9 R - 1 HR - 8 BB - 2 K. Even if a 4:1 walk to strikeout ratio is not expected to continue, he's below a league average strikeout rate with a .385 xwOBA and an ERA with estimators above five. If this run projection is going to mean Mookie Betts (117 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and J.D. Martinez (153 wRC+, .351 ISO) are going to see decreased ownership, along with Andrew Benintendi (122 wRC+, .195 ISO), this could be a great spot to use them, especially considering how difficult high priced pitching will make it to afford them (Betts now costs $6K on DraftKIngs!). While batters from either side of the plate have a .310 or lower wOBA against Faria since last season, xwOBA increases both sides above .330. Right-handed batters have a 36.8 Hard% against him as well.

The Rays and Royals are both in the upper middle of the board as two of six teams between 4.6 and 4.9 implied runs this afternoon (four are above five) despite only Mike Moustakas (132 wRC+, .284 ISO) and C.J. Cron (108 wRC+, .203 ISO) the only batters in either lineup to combine a wRC+ above 100 with an ISO above .200 against RHP over the last calendar year. No other batter (either lineup) even reaches a 110 wRC+ individually over that span. Salvador Perez (93 wRC+, .204 ISO) is the only other one exceeding a .180 ISO. Both batters are fine plays this afternoon with both pitchers at a .330 xwOBA or above against batters from either side since last season. Both pitchers have ERAs above five and an xwOBA above .370 overall this season with a very similar aEV around 89.5. Faria is the more talented arm with a strikeout rate (19.3%) seven points higher, but that's still well below what he accomplished last year.

It's not that this slate is lacking high upside arms. Seven pitchers on the main slate exceed a 25% strikeout rate with five of those above 30%. The problem is that a lot of those pitchers are high risk, due either to difficult matchups or other issues of their own making. Consider Robbie Ray (33%), facing a Philadelphia team with more walks than strikeouts against LHP so far. Also consider that Kevin's forecast potentially takes both starters in this game (and two or our seven) off the board, along with Jake Faria (10+ SwStr% each of last two starts) in a high upside spot in Baltimore. A shame because Vince Velasquez (6 IP - 1 BB - 6+ Ks in three straight starts) may have been one of the top bargains on the board at $7K. Cole Hamels (27 K%) struck out 11 A's last time he faced them, but has allowed two HRs in each of his two home starts. Charlie Morton (33.3 K%) might be the top overall arm on the board. He faces the Angels, who have a league worst team 49 wRC+ over the last week, but also the fourth lowest strikeout rate against RHP this season (18.5%). Opposing him is Shohei Ohtani (33.3%), who faces the Astros tonight and has really only shown his stuff against the A's, leaving his last start against the Red Sox with a blister issue. He's been well enough to hit since then and pitches in a negative run environment against a Houston offense that's been more good than great against RHP so far (106 wRC+, 22.8 K%). He certainly has the potential to exceed a cost below $10K. Kenta Maeda (34.8 K%) has the prime matchup on the slate, hosting the Marlins (68 wRC+, 24.8 K% vs RHP). He also threw 106 pitches in his last start. It's unclear whether that's good or bad news for this start immediately following though. It also failed to get him through six innings, though he did strike out 10 for the second time in three starts.

After two terrible starts against Boston, Jake Faria turned it around against the Phillies (5.1 IP - 2 H - 1 ER - 2 BB - 7 K - 19 BF). A concern might be that the 83 pitches thrown in his first start remains a season high, but it's encouraging to see a better performance recently, in which his swinging strike rate was a season high 12.8%. He's in another strong spot tonight, facing the Rangers in Tampa Bay. Texas has a mid-80s wRC+ and 24% strikeout rate both on the road and vs RHP this season. Faria is very cheap on either site, but he doesn't seem likely for six innings. He's averaged 5.4 innings per start since entering the league. While the Rangers don't have a "must roster", Faria's xwOBA (.341) is 62 points higher than his actual against LHBs (.279) in his career. Joey Gallo (120 wRC+, .336 ISO, 46 Hard%, 55.6 FB% vs RHP since last season) has a 57.1 Hard% over the last week. Shin-soo Choo (106 wRC+, .196 ISO, 40.1 Hard%) has an xwOBA (.379) that's 43 points higher than actual against RHP since last season. The Rays will face a third straight Texas left-hander and even a diminished Cole Hamels is the best of the bunch. The good news is that the velocity has ticked up slightly in each of his last three starts, to where he was sitting just a mile per hour below last year's average (92.3) in his last start (91.2). What Hamels has done this year, is increase his cutter usage (28%) over his sinker (16.8%) and other fastball (18.6%) and has generated a 9+ SwStr% in all four starts (12+ in each of his first three). Hamels has walked 11 and allowed seven HRs to 98 batters faced this year, but there is nothing in this Tampa Bay lineup that players should fear. PlateIQ shows this confirmed lineup having a .307 wOBA, .161 ISO and 24.6 K% vs LHP since last season. Hamels is a high risk, high upside play on the afternoon slate, but costs $2.4K more on DraftKings than he does on FanDue (almost twice the next largest price disparity - $1.3K). Players can certainly hunt for a homer with C.J. Cron (127 wRC+, .271 ISO, 43.1 Hard% vs LHP since last season). Cron has a 176 wRC+ over the last week and also has a .501 xwOBA against cutters in 45 PAs since 2016 (PlateIQ). RHBs have a .347 xwOBA with a 38.4 Hard% against Hamels since last season.

Jake Faria has been terrible through two starts (5.2 IP – 9 ER – 8 BB – 2 K), but has faced a difficult Boston lineup in both those starts. Although it's hard to have confidence in anyone after that line, you’d expect things to improve and the Phillies have a 27.6 K% against RHP. He costs less than $6K now on either site and could be one of quite a few lottery type arms to take a shot with on DraftKings if paying up for Cole. A 3.2 SwStr% right now is horrifying, but there's been no significant velocity loss and he generated swings and misses on 12% of pitches last season. Similary, Vince Velasquez is a pitcher who's results seem unpredictable from start to start and the first two this year have been no different. The difference between the two as lottery options tonight is simply cost. Velasques is significantly pricier, especially on DraftKings. One factor players may want to consider that hurts Vasquez is that the Rays have jettisoned most of their bats who struggled against high heat (Dickerson, Souza, Morrison). This could limit his upside. Carlos Santana (118 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since last year) would be a solid play tonight. While walks are not what daily fantasy players are really looking for, he has a combination of power and patience that should give him a high enough floor with a strong enough ceiling. Rhys Hoskins (170 wRC+, .329 ISO) is the obvious bat against a pitcher who has a reverse split thus far in his career (LHBs .275 wOBA, 25.6 Hard%, 50 GB% - RHBs .327 wOBA, 36.4 Hard%, 31 GB%). The Rays have a number of guys near the top of the lineup with both a wRC+ and ISO a bit above average against RHP since last season (Denard Span, Kevin Kiermaier and even Carlos Gomez).