Jacob Waguespack Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The O’s and Jays have slugged their way to 36 runs over the last two nights and why stop now. Gabriel Ynoa of the Cubs has just a 13.4 K% with an ERA and estimators all above five. His 89.9 mph aEV is third worst on the board. The Toronto lineup is thinning out with injuries up top, but they still offer nine projected batters above a .175 ISO vs RHP this year. Those who add a wRC+ above 100 include Cavan Biggio (121 wRC+, .229 ISO), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (120 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Reese McGuire (154 wRC+, .264 ISO), who could be the real value here below $4K on DraftKings. Billy McKinney (81 wRC+, .200 ISO) is even cheaper and has a 219 wRC+ over the last week. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Ynoa and Toronto is fifth on the board with a 5.77 implied run line.

On the other side of this affair, Jacob Waguespack allowed three runs over five innings to the Yankees last time out and that was his best start in a month. His numbers don’t stand out as poorly as Ynoa’s, but he has an ERA and FIP above seven over the last month with all estimators above five for the season behind a 9.9 K-BB% and .348 xwOBA. The Orioles have a lower implied run line, but still a respectable 4.73, but Waguespack has a substantial reverse split with RHBs over 65 points higher by wOBA (.366) and xwOBA (.377). Trey Mancini (120 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP) and Austin Hays (256 wRC+, .485 ISO) are batters of interest here. The latter with a very small sample, but still a .391 xwOBA that’s best among projected batters in this lineup vs RHP.

Jacob Waguespack does not miss bats (18.6 K%) and owns an 88.9 mph aEV with a 3.63 ERA predicated on a .267 BABIP and 10.7 HR/FB that are likely to regress. Non-FIP estimators are closer to five, but the interesting thing is that he’s shown a reverse split thus far with RHBs (.367 wOBA) 160 points better than LHBs (.207) and this is well supported by Statcast (.392 xwOBA, .275) as well as 44.8 Hard% and 39.1 GB% for same handed batters (LHBs 30.4 Hard%, 46.4 GB%). For an Atlanta offense above five implied runs (5.13), that makes Ronald Acuna Jr. (124 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Josh Donaldson (131 wRC+, .259 ISO) the most interesting bats here and potentially makes Francisco Cervelli (four extra-base hits in nine PAs for Atlanta) and Dansby Swanson (92 wRC+, .184 ISO) your value plays. Cervelli costs less than $3K on either site.

Jacob Waguespack has struck out just two in three of his four starts this season and only more than that against the Tigers. In five innings against the Rays two starts back, he allowed three runs with as many walks. Considering his underlying numbers, there should be some expectation for the Rays to do some damage tonight despite sitting in the middle of the board at 5.09 implied runs. Waguespack has the third worst Z-Contact on the board (90.5%) and is tied for the second highest aEV (90.2 mph). Hard contact and lots of it is essentially what players are looking for in a daily fantasy offense. Additionally, the rookie’s .414 xwOBA over his four starts is 54 points above his actual mark. However, Waguespack has shown such a substantial platoon split that despite the small sample, one would have to think there’s some legitimacy to it. Same-handed batters have a wOBA and xwOBA exceeding .400 with a 51.8 Hard% against him, while LHBs are below .300 with only half as much hard contact (26.3%). Looking at tonight’s projected Tampa Bay lineup, that puts Tommy Pham (133 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in the best spot, but also makes Travis d’Arnaud (98 wRC+, .157 ISO) and the recently resurgent Jesus Aguliar (103 wRC+, .176 ISO) interesting bats as well here. Each exceed a 180 wRC+ over the last week, but Aguliar (292 wRC+, 75 Hard% last seven days) is within $400 of $3K on either site.

Jacob Waguespack has a slightly below average K-BB% through 92 AAA innings over the last two seasons. The 25 year-old does have a 23.8 K% with a 4.8 BB% through 84 major league batters so far, facing Boston twice, Detroit and these Rays. A .382 BABIP and 65.9 LOB% has estimators well below his 5.68 ERA, but right in line with a 5.66 DRA and .350 xwOBA due to an 89.1 mph aEV (24.1 LD%). While the peripherals are great, they’re also necessary due to the nature of the contact he’s allowing and not really in line with what he’s done in the minors over the last year. The interesting thing in this small sample so far is that RHBs have an xwOBA over 200 points higher against Waguespack (.442 to .234) with similar actual results (.435 to .278). Some confirmation comes in terms of hard hit (48.7% to 9.5%) and ground ball rates (37.8% to 57.1%). That makes Tommy Pham the bat to own here. He has a 131 wRC+ and .219 ISO vs same-handed pitching over the last calendar year and costs a very reasonable $4.1K on DraftKings tonight. The Tampa Bay lineup is generally fairly liquid and tough to project, so keep an eye out for additional affordable RHBs who may appear towards the top of tonight’s lineup, like possible Travis D’arnaud (91 wRC+, .177 ISO) who has a 167 wRC+ and 54.6 Hard% over the last week and costs less than $3K on FanDuel. His .345 xwOBA against RHP over this span is also 39 points higher than his actual mark.