Jacoby Ellsbury Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The New York Yankees have the second lowest implied run line on the board (2.69), facing Corey Kluber, who tops today's board in strikeout rate (34.1%), SwStr (15.6%), ERA (2.25), SIERA (2.68) and DRA (2.05). He's the most expensive pitcher on either site with the biggest disadvantage being the fairly positive run environment he pitches in for Cleveland. No other positive run environments are in play today using Seamheads.org three year park factors. He completely dominated RHBs (.233 wOBA, 26.6 Hard%), while LHBs did not fare much better (.251 wOBA, 31.3 Hard%). The first six are the same for the Yankees tonight with Aaron Hicks (119 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP), swapping lineup spots with Todd Frazier (101 wRC+, .173 ISO) and Jacoby Ellsbury (113 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP) replacing Chase Headley. He's facing a very competent crew against RHP according to PlateIQ: .348 wOBA, .211 ISO, 20.1 K% vs RHP. If the Yankees didn't like breaking balls from Trevor Bauer last night, they're really going to hate Kluber though. Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .364 ISO vs RHP) was eaten up by curveballs and sliders last night, but can still change the game with one mistake, while $4.6K is actually quite reasonable for him on DraftKings. He's likely to come with lower ownership due to matchup and affordability today. Brett Gardner (124 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP) costs just $2.8K on FanDuel. The Yankees are clearly in a difficult spot though. Other factors players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. This is where the Yankees could gain some small advantage. This game gets the only YELLOW grade in Kevin's MLB forecast today. A delay is not likely, but it is possible and anything that could throw Kluber off his game or remove him from it benefits the Yankees. However, the Cleveland bullpen trailed just the Yankees with 8.6 fWAR this season, while their 20.0 K-BB% led all of baseball. The obvious weapon is Andrew Miller, though Danny Salazar gives them an additional dimension they did not have available last year. Miller pitched only one inning last night, but the Yankees made him throw a lot of pitchers, which could take him out of the game tonight or at inhibit him from a lengthy outing. Salazar is surely capable of throwing multiple innings though. Dan Iassonga would be the ball and strike caller for this game according to Yahoo Sports, if the rotation is correct (he was at First Base yesterday). In a 309 game sample according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, players had a 20.6 K% and 8.3 BB% in games called by Iassogna. His 1.14 K-Boost and 0.93 BB-Boost would make him one of the most pitcher friendly umpires in the game. If Kluber is going to get the same calls Bauer got last night, it's going to be a long (or short) afternoon for the Yankees.

The first inclination might be that the Yankees are going to make mince meat of Adalberto Mejia (4.43 ERA, 5.08 SIERA, 8% Barrels/BBE), who has just a 16.7 K% over the last month, but the Yankees have just an 84 wRC+ vs LHP this year and have played a lot of baseball over the last few days. Beginning with a 16 inning affair on Saturday, they then played a day/night double-header on Sunday, including the late game on ESPN, after which they traveled to Minnesota. Catching all 16 innings on Saturday and then nine more last night, Gary Sanchez could be the player most negatively affected if he isn't given the night off tonight. Older Yankees like Matt Holliday, Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury could show some wear as well. While this is in no way an endorsement of Mejia, who may need a lot more than some tired bats with his 11.1 BB%, this is at least a spot where some caution may need to be exercised. Though Aaron Judge was robbed of a HR last night, even he has a -25 wRC+ and 16.7 Hard% now since the break.

The Yankees aren't at the bottom of the standings in many categories offensively, but with a 79 sOPS+, only the Phillies have been worse (78 sOPS+) against ground ball pitchers this year. Ivan Nova is difficult to consider with just a 13.8 K% though. Aaron Judge is the obvious exception (182 sOPS+), but Did Gregorius has a 115 sOPS+ against ground ballers as well. No other batter in this lineup is above average and Jacoby Ellsbury (98 sOPS+) is the only other batter above 85. Stroman has no real platoon split, actually allowing HRs to RHBs at a slightly higher rate (15.7 HR/FB) in his career, though the contact management has been better (6.3 Hard-Soft%). PlateIQ says that Stroman likes to go down and outside against RHBs, but isn't adverse to coming in occasionally, but rarely goes above the belt. He may want to stay away from Aaron Judge, who crushes inside pitches. He's likely to see a mix of sinkers, sliders and curves from Stroman (according to Brooks Baseball), which PlateIQ again says that he hits well. While Stroman may be a top three pitcher on this slate, this shouldn't preclude the usage of Judge. While pitchers may attempt to pitch around him more often now, one mistake from Stroman could go a long way.

Tim Adleman has actually been a respectable starting pitcher so far this season, allowing more than two earned runs in just one start, but he still isn't the type of pitcher we need to shy away from attacking with opposing hitters. This is especially true given his matchup with a New York Yankees squad that just continues to roll, leading the American League in runs scored, and are showing no signs of slowing down. To this point in his career, Adleman has been fly ball pitcher to left-handed batters (54.6% FB%) and owns essentially neutral splits to righties but is surrendering a lot more hard contact (40.4% HH%). He also looks to be a below-average strikeout pitcher (17.9% K%) that has exhibited some decent control (6.4% BB%), meaning that it should be expected for a lot of balls to be put into play this evening, especially with how hot the Yankees' sticks have been in recent weeks. Aaron Judge (146 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .327 ISO vs RHP since 2016) is back in the lineup after receiving the night off yesterday, and he'll join Gary Sanchez (177 wRC+, .432 wOBA, .311 ISO vs RHP since 2016) as the top overall options to target from this lineup in all formats. Brett Gardner (117 wRC+, .344 wOBA vs RHP since 2016) has added a bit of extra power to his game thus far in 2017, but it remains to be seen if he will be able to sustain that type of upside going forward, which relegates him to more of a secondary option along with Jacoby Ellsbury and Starlin Castro. The aforementioned trio is likely better utilized in a stack for tournaments, whereas, Judge and Sanchez possess enough upside on their own to be viable as both one-offs and core pieces to a Yankees stack in tournaments.

Jacoby Ellsbury has homered four times (34 PA) against Rick Porcello. While there is some out-dated information there, he does have a 90.6 mph aEV on 10 Statcast recorded BBE in this matchup. Porcello has allowed five HRs this season, but four were in one start. He has struck out Ellsbury just three times. No other batter on the night slate has homered more than twice against the pitcher they oppose tonight. Among those with at least 10 recorded BBE, Justin Turner has the highest exit velocity (94.2 mph aEV - 14 BBE) against Johnny Cueto. He has one HR and two doubles in the matchup, striking out just two times in 22 PA. Players aren't otherwise going to get a lot of help out of BvP information today.

Pineda has all the stuff of an ace with a 3.35 SIERA, a 27.5% K rate, and a 46.3% ground ball rate but he has so many bad outings that he's hard to trust. He's a perfect GPP play any time he takes the mound and facing a strikeout prone Rays team is no different. Alex Cobb pitched well against the Yankees in Tampa last week but only pitched five innings and struggled in his limited work last season. He's a safe fade today. LH bats for the Rays are in play against Pineda as he allowed a .352 wOBA to them last season and the park is favorable to LH hitters. Corey Dickerson (leading off), Kevin Kiermaier (2nd), and Brad Miller (4th) are all viable options from the Rays lineup. Cobb also struggles against LH bats - Greg Bird continues to sit for the Yankees so we won't be able to use him today but Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury at the top of the order are great plays from the Yankees lineup and Matt Holliday and Chris Carter batting 3rd and 4th are viable options as well at the top of the order.

R.A. Dickey has been for more successful on the road this season, but with an implied run total of 4.50, the Yankees look like fine targets today. Dickey has posted an ugly 5.28 xFIP and 39.4 fly-ball percentage against left-handed pitching this season, increasing the appeal of both Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner at the top of the order. Meanwhile, Gary Sanchez has cooled off recently, but does own a .552 wOBA against right-handed pitching and continues to hit out of the #3 spot. Both Brian McCann and Mark Teixeria are out of the lineup today.

The youth movement is very well underway in the Bronx as both Jacoby Ellsbury and Mark Teixeira will be watching from the Yankees dugout today.. With that said, things don't set up too well for them this afternoon as they own just a .306 team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season and J.A. Happ has been the biggest bright spot in the Blue Jays rotation this season and has mowed down this New York team in all three prior meetings this season. Somewhat surprisingly, it's Didi Gregorious that leads New York with a .382 wOBA against left-handed pitching but we were hoping to see him hit a bit higher in the order than #6. Gary Sanchez gets a rare chance to hit cleanup this afternoon, giving him a major fantasy boost.

Over his last few starts, Carlos Carrasco has only been striking out 13% of batters which has led to a ballooned xFIP of 5.34. Surprisingly, he has fared almost equally well against LHBs and RHBs, possessing an xFIP of 3.68 versus LHB and an xFIP of 3.81 versus RHB. The Yankees have not been great for most of the year, but Mark Teixeira, Brett Gardner, and Jacoby Ellsbury do all have wRC+ totals above 138 over the last week.