Jaime Barria Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Jaime Barria has just a 10.2 K-BB% through 24 innings, but just a 3.38 ERA due to a 6.3 HR/FB and .239 BABIP. With an 87.1 mph EV, Barria has allowed two HRs, but not a single Barrel yet. While the 2.51 ERA is even more impressive, it’s not sustainable. His SIERA and xFIP are more than a run and a half higher than actual results. The Rangers have absolutely no offense (63 wRC+, 25 K%, 10.5 HR/FB vs RHP), which could make Barria a viable alternative to higher priced pitching for Coors stackers tonight. Ronald Guzman (110 wRC+) is the only batter in the projected lineup above a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days. He’s also just one of two batters in the projected lineup above a .300 wOBA against RHP this year. Barria costs just $5.8K and while he hasn’t completed the six innings necessary for a Quality Start all season, he’s thrown 86 and 85 pitches over his last two starts and could get there tonight against the Rangers. Barria costs just $5.8K on FanDuel.

Jaime Barria is a right-handed pitcher with a significant reverse split, making the Athletics and two batters in particular a very difficult matchup for him. Matt Chapman (146 wRC+, .263 ISO) and Khris Davis (143 wRC+, .320 ISO) have both destroyed RHP this season, the former costing a reasonable $4.4K on DraftKings. The A's have a team 4.56 implied run line that is good enough for the top third of the board tonight.

If not interested in or unable to afford the top priced pitchers tonight, players should probably be considering all four pitchers in tonight's two west coast affairs. Mike Minor (20.8 K%, 4.21 SIERA, .344 xwOBA) probably won't be able to sustain his 30 K% over the last month with a 9.2 SwStr% behind it and facing an offense with a 20.9 K% vs LHP, but he gets a significant park upgrade in L.A. and the Angels have just an 86 wRC+ against southpaws this year. His opponent, Jaime Barria (18.7 K%, 4.55 SIERA, .337 xwOBA) has allowed one run or less in five of his last six starts, but has only completed six innings once over that span, He has a 22.7 K% and 300 xwOBA last 30 days. The Rangers have an 84 wRC+ on the road and 24.5 K% vs RHP. Sean Newcomb (22.1 K%, 4.65 SIERA, .314 xwOBA) has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts, not completing even five innings in three of those starts, but he's in San Francisco, facing a Giants' offense with an 82 wRC+ and 15.1 K-BB% vs LHP for the season and is now without most of their RH power. Dereck Rodriguez (19.9 K%, 4.28 SIERA, .305 xwOBA) is facing a contact prone offense (20.4 K% vs RHP), but not in a particularly dangerous one (95 wRC+, 11.6 HR/FB vs RHP) in a great park. He's gone at least six innings in 12 of 15 starts.

The expectation might be to see the Rangers above five implied runs against a marginal pitcher at home, but they're just a bit below that (4.89) against Jaime Barria tonight. Barria has pitched well of late. His 4.16 SIERA over the last month is two runs above his ERA (2.19), but Statcast backs the results with a .277 xwOBA. Also, for the season, he's shown a tremendous reverse split (RHBs .375 wOBA, LHBs .257) and this too is backed by Statcast with an 80 point reverse split. What does this mean for a Texas lineup with basically everyone hovering around a league average wRC+ and a .200 ISO vs RHP? First, nobody stands out as a must have bat, but nearly everyone seems playable with the two lowest wRC+ marks against RHP might be the best values: Elvis Andrus (93 wRC+, .106 ISO) and Adrian Beltre (95 wRC+, .139 ISO) are both below $4K on DraftKings.

Houston is the most or at the very least one of the most negative run environments in baseball, yet the Astros are fifth highest on the board at 5.22 runs against Jaime Barria, who has a significant reverse platoon split this year (RHBs .392 wOBA). Not as potent as last season, they still have three batters who have been extremely successful against RHP this year. Alex Bregman (153 wRC+, .232 ISO) has been the total package. Jose Altuve (148 wRC+, .140 ISO) has lost some power. Tyler White (181 wRC+, .346 ISO) has been a small sample superstar, but beware his 17.4 Hard% over the last week (223 wRC+).

The afternoon slate consists of four games on both sites and includes both of the two most positive run environments in baseball (Texas and Colorado). There are actually three pretty decent pitchers in those games (Marco Gonzales, Chris Archer, and German Marquez), holding two of the four teams (Rangers and Pirates) a bit below five implied runs, but theses four teams still comprise the top half of an eight team board with no team from either of the other two games owning a higher run line. Patrick Corbin is the lone $10K pitcher on either site. He's allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts, but no more than four and has gone at least six innings in each, striking out 25 of his last 76 batters over his last three. His 30.7 K% is tops on the board for the entire day among regular starters this season as is his 2.95 SIERA. The Phillies have an 88 wRC+ vs LHP with a lower 22.7 K% and elite walk rate (10.7%), but with less power (10.1 HR/FB). They've also picked up a couple of competent RH bats recently, but there's not nearly enough to pull players off of Corbin here. The next most interesting arm is his opponent, Vince Velasquez, who is not very consistent, but has a 27.4 K%, 3.74 SIERA and .294 xwOBA that's exactly the same as Corbin's. He's coming off 6.1 shutout innings against Miami (seven Ks). The Diamondbacks have also improved their lineup with health and trades recently, but still have an 87 wRC+ and 23.6 K% vs RHP this year. The Tigers and Angels are the destination for cheap SP2 types on this slate, though Blaine Hardy is up to $7.2K on DraftKings. He last one-hit Oakland through seven innings with six strikeouts and has been a competent arm for the Tigers this year (18.2 K%, .297 xwOBA) split between the rotation and bullpen. He'll face a still Mike Trout-less Angels' offense with an 85 wRC+ vs LHP. Jaime Barria has gone nine starts without more than five strikeouts and has just a 13.6 K% over the last month. He's not an exceptional contact manager either (.356 xwOBA, 88.9 mph aEV, 8.0% Barrels/BBE). The appeal here is simply in the most negative run environment on the board and the opponent (Tigers 73 wRC+ on the road, 75 wRC+ vs RHP and 52 wRC+ on the road - they have a sub-9.0 HR/FB in all three instances as well).

In one of three very healthy run environments on this board (along with Texas and Boston), the Indians have a 5.16 implied run line against Jaime Barria, who has an 11.6 K% and 5.27 SIERA over the last month, also has a .363 xwOBA on the season. However, it's been RHBs who he's been significantly worse against (.397 wOBA, .420 xwOBA), which ups the value of Edwin Encarnacion (134 wRC+, .279 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) as one of just two RHBs in the lineup. While LHBs have just a .241 wOBA against Barria this year, that's no reason to avoid the elite LHBs for the Tribe, considering the run environment and 60 point hike 60 xwOBA gives to that mark. Jose Ramirez (179 wRC+, .354 ISO) is nearing the $6K mark, but it's hard to argue he hasn't been worth it.

With every high end pitcher carrying either some weather or personal risk, paying down may be a choice for some players. However, lower priced pitchers seem more a complement to higher end guys on DK than strong stand alone options with the one exception possibly being Jaime Barria, who costs $5.9K on FanDuel and much more on DraftKings. Barria is a marginal pitcher at best (19.1 K%, 4.44 SIERA) and even has the highest aEV on the board (89.9 mph). However, he has a great matchup against an offense with a 19 K-BB% both on the road and vs RHP in a great home park. Jose Urena is coming off one of his worst outings of the season, but has a reasonable 19.9 K% for the season and a .285 xwOBA that's 43 points lower than his actual mark over the last month. The Braves have just a 20.3 K% vs RHP, but also just a 93 wRC+ and 10.5 HR/FB. Urena costs less than $7K in a great park. The recently added Joey Lucchesi has gone beyond five innings by just a single out once since returning from the DL (five starts) with around a league average strikeout rate over that span. Not what you're looking for out of an $8K pitcher, but the Mets have a 77 wRC+, 26.1 K%, and 8.3 HR/FB vs LHP and may be down Cespedes again in a pitcher's park. High risk/low cost options include Luis Castillo (18.7 K% with a 14 SwStr% over the last month) at home against the Cardinals and Sean Newcomb, who's hard contact rate is up, ground ball rate is down and has struck out more than three in just one of his last five starts, but is facing the Marlins (78 wRC+, 8.1 HR/FB vs LHP) in a top park.

The worst bullpen on the board over the last month (Mets 5.84 FIP, 8.9 K-BB%) has one of the best pitchers (Jacob deGrom) going tonight, so a bet on the Phillies is likely one for the bullpen doing a lot of damage in an inning or two and that's possible, but likely unprofitable. The Angels (5.32 FIP, 15.2 K-BB%) are the only other bullpen on the board above a five FIP over the last month and Jaime Barria hasn't completed six innings in over a month. The 15.2 K-BB% is an above average mark, which means they've been generous with the HR ball and the Seattle offense does have some bop in the middle. Three more bullpens are above a 4.8 FIP with a K-BB less than 9% over the last month. Two are off the board and the other is the Rockies, if players need any additional incentive to roster Diamondback bats with an 83 wRC+ and 24.3 K% vs RHP this year, though they recently returned a couple of their better hitters, both from the right side. Dan Straily, Sonny Gray, Joey Lucchesi and Shelby Miller all average around five innings per start or less. Of course, that doesn't help much because the Diamondbacks (3.92 FIP, 11.3 K-BB% last 30 days) are at Coors, where players are likely attacking anyway, while the Yankees (2.96 FIP, 22.8 K-BB%) and Padres (3.57 FIP, 21.8 K-BB%) are bullpens to avoid. The Marlins (4.00 FIP, 9.2 K-BB%) are a positive DFS takeaway here, though in one of the most negative run and power suppressing environments in all baseball.