Jaime Garcia Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Daily Bullpen Alert: Blue Jays pen has an MLB high 5.44 FIP last 30 days behind a starter averaging less than five innings per start
On a slate where all 30 major league teams are in action, the pitchers with the smallest workloads generally have some of the best bullpens behind them tonight. Caleb Ferguson lasted just 11 batters in his first start and just 17 in his previous AAA start, but has one of the stronger bullpens in baseball behind him (Dodgers 3.25 FIP, 14.9 K-BB% last 30 days). The Yankees (2.86 FIP, 18.9 K-BB% last 30 days) behind C.C. Sabathia, Cubs (2.97 FIP, 14.5 K-BB%) behind Tyler Chatwood and Padres (4.07 FIP, 16.4 K-BB%), who will be throwing their entire pen at the Cardinals today, can probably all say the same. Lower workload pitchers working in front of bullpens players can attack may include Trevor Richards (Marlins 4.71 FIP, 6.1 K-BB% last 30 days), Jaime Garcia (Blue Jays 5.44 FIP, 10.1 K-BB%), Sal Romano (Reds 4.12 FIP, 7.9 K-BB%) and Ian Kennedy (Royals 4.62 FIP, 14.7 K-BB%).
Manny Machado is surrounded by right-handed salary relief against an occasionally HR prone lefty
Jaime Garcia has allowed four runs or more in fewer than four innings in three of his last five starts. He has, at times, struggled with both walks (9.8%) and HRs (14.8 HR/FB) this season with a ground ball rate that's down to 42.4%. RHBs have a .346 wOBA (.347 xwOBA) against him since last season. The Orioles have a 4.4 implied run line that's right in the middle of tonight's board and will attack him with the platoon advantage in eight out of nine spots tonight. Manny Machado (132 wRC+, .267 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the top bat in the lineup, but nobody else in the lineup is above $3.8K on either site. Salary relief can be found with Trey Mancini (100 wRC+, .143 ISO), Adam Jones (121 wRC+, .137 ISO), Danny Valencia (115 wRC+, .217 ISO) or Jonathan Schoop (154 wRC+, .246 ISO). Austin Wynns (103 wRC+ at AAA) costs just $2.5K or less behind the plate and could be a competent punt behind the plate as well.
Tigers have a nice one-two punch vs LHP at the top of the lineup.
Both Jeimer Candelario (153 wRC+, .261 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (182 wRC+, .291 ISO) have hit LHP extremely well over the last calendar year and could be a nice one-two punch at the top of the lineup against Jaime Garcia tonight (RHBs .341 wOBA since 2017). If players wanted to consider a full stack, Miguel Cabrera (145 wRC+, .196 ISO) and James McCann (129 wRC+, .200 ISO) have had success as well with Candelario the only one of the four below a .390 xwOBA over that span.
Edwin Encarnacion (117 wRC, .216 ISO) looks to build on three homer day against another southpaw
The Cleveland Indians are in a virtual tie for the top Vegas run line at 4.9. They'll face Jaime Garcia, who has a career high 24.4 K% this season, but his 8.7 SwStr% is a career low for any season with more than 16 IP. He still has an ERA and FIP well above five because his aEV (92.8 mph), Barrels/BBE (13.8%) and 95+ mph EV (53.4%) are all highest on the board (.373 xwOBA). Cleveland has four batters in the lineup who punish southpaws, while all others have been below average. Right-handed batters have a .338 wOBA and 346 xwOBA against Garcia since last season. The four are Francisco Lindor (133 wRC+, .208 ISO since last season), Jose Ramirez (143 wRC+, .242 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (117 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Yan Gomes (121 wRC+, .250 ISO). Gomes and Lindor have a wRC+ around the 200 mark over the last week, while Ramirez and Encarnacion, who homered three times yesterday, have hard hit rates above 40% over the last seven days.
Not Happy About it, But I Love the Price
Let me start off by saying that Garcia is about as safe in this matchup as leaving the house for a three-week vacation with the stove lit. That being said, there is a whole lot of upside in this matchup; in the past two seasons Garcia does own a 20% K rate and is going up against a lineup that strikes out at a large clip (see Stanton's "I'm just gonna swing every time and hope I hit it at bats"). Garcia is much better against lefties, but you won't see a whole lot of easy ones in this lineup. What you are hoping for here is that Garcia can keep the Yanks from hitting any bombs here (see Garcia's 56% ground ball rate over the last two seasons) and striking out at their average K rate. If this happens then you've got a cheap pitcher with some good stuff performing well enough to take down a GPP with Coors on the slate. Throw this guy in and hope that he keeps the ball on the ground like he has the last few seasons.
Big Favorite at Home
Jaime Garcia is a tease when it comes to fantasy baseball. Every single year, he will flash upside for a few starts and then implode right when we start believing in him. While I'm certainly a little scared about that, there are a lot of positives for Garcia. He is a large favorite at home and he is facing a Royals' offense that doesn't hit southpaws well. They also have a high strikeout rate against lefties, which is not something that we've seen from the Royals over the last few years.
Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia each have a 180 wRC+ against LHP since last season.
The White Sox may be only somewhere on the middle of the boards with a 4.16 implied run line, but they show up with some upside against left-handed pitching tonight. Jaime Garcia was below average, but not terrible against right-handed batters last season (.333 wOBA, 54 GB%, 87.3 mph aEV, 6.3 K-BB%), but he's facing some thump in this lineup. Jose Abreu (.275 ISO vs LHP last year) and Avisail Garcia (.152 ISO) each have a 180 wRC+ against LHP since last season, though the latter has an unsustainable .509 BABIP. Welington Castillo (137 wRC+, .223 ISO) has always hit LHP well and Matt Davidson hit three HRs in a game Danny Duffy started on Opening Day. Yoan Moncada has just a 73 wRC+ against LHP in his young career, but leads the majors with an 85.7 Hard% this season. He also has a 400+ wOBA and xwOBA against sinkers, a pitch Garcia threw around 20% of the time against RHBs last season. He did struggle against changeups (.127 wOBA, .210 xwOBA), according to PlateIQ, a pitch Garcia utilized equally often against batters from that side of the plate.
Jaime Garcia scratched Saturday; CC Sabathia will now start in his place
Garcia has officially been scratched from his start in today's game against the Toronto Blue Jays due to a manager's decision. In his place, CC Sabathia will receive the starting nod for the New York Yankees this afternoon. Considering that Sabathia is still a left-handed pitcher with a similar overall skillset to Garcia, albeit, a slightly more honed one, the Blue Jays hitters shouldn't be expected to see an uptick in production and could actually be knocked with a slight downgrade to their projected values on Saturday's early slate from their original projections.
Seven of 10 starters tonight with at least 17 starts have allowed 20 or more HRs this year
Tonight's slate does not offer very many attractive stacking opportunities, but what it does offer is a lot of HR potential. Several of tonight's pitchers are either extreme fly ball generators, home run prone or both. Even Clayton Kershaw has allowed 20 HRs this seaon. In fact, among pitchers with at least 17 starts, only Luis Perdomo (17), Jaime Garcia (17) and Jameson Taillon (9) have failed to allow at least 20 HRs. Even among those three, Garcia struggled mightily with HRs in the past and pitches at Yankee Stadium (though his tendency for shorter outings backed by a monster bullpen may steer players away from opposing bats) while Paul Goldschmidt (3 HRs, 19 PAs) and J.D. Martinez (2 HRs, 6 PAs) have hammered Perdomo, a pitcher who generally grounds RHBs (67.8 GB% this year). The profitable approach to this slate may be in HR hunting rather than stacking a particular lineup. RHBs alone have a .415 wOBA and 18 HRs against Nick Pivetta (which may be where one of the better stacking opportunities lies if the Dodgers choose to load up that way). Dan Straily doesn't allow a ton of particularly hard contact (25% last six starts), but has allowed nine HRs over that span due to a 49.5% fly ball rate. Jharel Cotton has allowed a league average hard contact rate (31%) over his last seven or 18 starts, yet he has allowed 13 and 27 HRs over those two spans. Ervin Santana has allowed 29 HRs in 30 starts, 27 over his last 24 and has a .308 BABIP with a 4.34 ERA and 18 HRs over his last 17. The most interesting hitter on the slate may be Rhys Hoskins (217 wRC+, .643 ISO, 50 Hard%, 59.1 FB%, 40 PAs vs LHP). Sure, the sample is still very small, but he's done nearly a season's worth of damage already. Rostering batters facing Kershaw is not usually a recommended practice, but depending upon projected ownership, this could be one of those rare situations where it might be profitable. The aforementioned 20 HRs he's allowed are a career high by 25% (previous high was 16) with 14 of those being surrendered to RHBs.
Yoneis Cespedes has a 58% fly ball rate vs LHP this year, Mets 123 sOPS+ vs GB pitchers
Jaime Garcia has league average strikeout potential with a high ground ball rate (54.6% is fifth among qualifiers) and 7.0 Hard-Soft%. He also transitions to a highly negative run environment at Citi Field tonight. That’s the good news. His walk rate (9.2%) ties the highest of his career, including 10 of 78 batters since being traded from Atlanta. The Mets have a 17.7 K-BB% vs LHP, but a 23.8 HR/FB over the last week as their top RH bat is heating up. Yoenis Cespedes has a 210 wRC+ over the last week and a .284 ISO with a 58% fly ball rate against LHP this year. Jaime Garcia has kept RHBs grounded more often than LHBs since the start of last year (57% to 50.8%), though batters from either side have at least a 14 HR/FB and RHBs have a .336 wOBA with a 31.7 Hard%. Additionally, the Mets have the third best sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) against ground ball pitchers (123). Michael Conforto leads the way with a 188 sOPS+ against ground ballers among Mets with more than 25 PAs. He's also hit LHP very well this year (104 wRC+, .247 ISO). He and Cespedes are the expensive bats in this lineup. However, the rest of the lineup, including Wilmer Flores (111 wRC+, .264 ISO), Jose Reyes (109 wRC+, .189 ISO), Travis D'arnaud (149 wRC+, .250 ISO) have all hit LHP fairly well this season and cost much less. We can include Amed Rosario in that group with his 182 wRC+ over the last week too. D'arnaud has struggled against ground ball pitchers though (38 sOPS+), the only really below average hitter against them this season in tonight's lineup, but his prowess against LHP and bump up the lineup could compensate for that for less than $3K on either site.