Jake Odorizzi Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The top two pitchers today are off the main slate, leaving players with just Jake Odorizzi and Noah Syndergaard reaching $9K on both sites. Taking environment and matchup into account, Ryan Yarbrough may be the top arm on the slate. He combines the best walk rate (3.2%) with the top aEV (83.9 mph) and 95+ mph EV (25.5%) on the board with a league average strikeout rate (22%). Since the All-Star break, he’s allowed more than a single earned run in only two outings. The Orioles have an 18.3 K-BB% and 10.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP this year and the Dome in Tampa Bay is just one of two negative run environments on the board, along with St Louis. The lone drawback here is Yarbrough’s workload. In his nine starts (without an Opener), he’s faced at least 26 batters five times and failed to complete six innings just once. However, he’s been held to 85 pitches or less in three straight starts after coming one out away from a complete game four starts back. This is the type of risk players are just going to have to accept on a difficult board. Regardless, Yarbrough should still be a strong value for just $7.6K on FanDuel.

A key to watch with Jake Odorizzi is his Z-Contact%. He likes to pitch up in the zone despite not being a high velocity pitcher and when it works, he misses a lot of bats in the upper part of the zone. He was a Z-Contact% leader early on this season, but that has gone south over the last month and a half (87.4% last eight starts) as has his results (20.2 K%, 7.04 ERA, 6.03 FIP over that span). He allowed just one run in his last start (5.2 innings), but that was in Miami, the perfect park for a struggling fly ball pitcher. The Braves will represent much more of a challenge, especially considering that Odorizzi is a reverse platoon pitcher, not by wOBA (RHBs .258 last calendar year), but by xwOBA (RHBs .333). That’s a 75 point difference and Atlanta has RHBs who can hit same-handed pitching well. Over this poor eight start stretch though, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA against him and for the season, his 9.9% Barrels/BBE is third worst on the board. While Ronald Acuna (127 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) may be the top overall bat in the Atlanta lineup tonight, Josh Donaldson (132 wRC+, .258 ISO) may be the best value. He has the second best wRC+ and top ISO vs RHP in the lineup tonight (over the last 12 months), while costing $4.2K or less on either site.

Jake Odorizzi was smoked for another nine runs against the Yankees last time out. Over his last seven starts, he has a 7.99 ERA, 6.75 FIP and 5.60 xFIP as he’s lost his ability to miss bats up in the zone at an above average rate (86.1 Z-Contact%, 9.9 SwStr%). Consider that his season marks are still 79.8% and 11.8%. The obvious solution to this problem is a trip to Miami (Marlins 76 wRC+, 18.7 K-BB% vs RHP, 83 wRC+, 11.4 HR/FB at home). At a cost above $9K on DraftKings, trust issues are understandable for a pitcher with a .364 xwOBA over the last month that’s still 85 points below his actual mark and is now allowing 10.5% Barrels/BBE on the season. However, a $7.3K price tag on FanDuel in this great spot makes him a bit more marketable.

On the other side of this matchup, the Twins are not often an offense it’s suggested to roster pitchers against (114 wRC+, 20.7 K%, 17 HR/FB vs RHP), but not only do they lose a DH (which in this case is Nelson Cruz) and suffer a significant park downgrade tonight, but Zac Gallen has made an impact in his first six trips to a major league mound. His largest flaw is a 12% walk rate and while his 6.7 HR/FB is probably unsustainable even in Miami, he’s produced a board leading 28.5 Z-O-Swing% and 2.7% Barrels/BBE to go along with his 28 K% and .290 xwOBA. Gallen is within $300 of $8K on either site.

Odorizzi had a surprisingly good start to the season, which saw him post a 1.92 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 4.32 xFIP ad 20.5% K-BB with a .284 xwOBA allowed up until mid-June. Since June 15th, Odorizzi has posted an ugly 6.46 ERA, 5.84 xFIP and 9.5% K-BB with a .355 xwOBA allowed. His four-seamer, easily his most used pitch with a 58% usage rate, had a .277 xwOBA against earlier in the year but has recently been shelled for a .386 xwOBA against since June 15th. The Athletics come into this game with a 5th best 116 wRC+ over the past 30 days and a 101 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year. Matt Olson (.405 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Matt Chapman (.384), Mark Canha (.360), Robbie Grossman (.351), Marcus Semien (.326), Ramon Laureano (.325) and Khris Davis (.324) are all good options in the projected order tonight. Olson has been their hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks with a .474 xwOBA, followed by Matt Chapman with a .448 xwOBA and Ramon Laureano with a .421 xwOBA. Though he’s not been his usual self this year, Khris Davis might be the best value in the lineup with just a $3.4k price on Draftkings. Of all the hitters just mentioned, only Davis and Robbie Grossman ($3.8k on DK) will have a price tag under $4.4k, but none go above $4.8k. The A’s should see decently low ownership in this matchup and have a 4.95 implied line in seemingly underrated hitter's park Target Field. Keep an eye on the weather as we get closer to lock.