Jake Peavy Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Jake Peavy has diminished skills at this point. That much is obvious, but he's been able to fake being a near league average pitcher in a great park with an 8.5 HR/FB this year, allowing just three at home. His 65.5 LOB% is nearly 10 points below his career average and the last two seasons. He's also facing an offense with a 22% strikeout rate on the road and vs RHP, while the park should severely suppress their only real weapon, which is power in the top half of the lineup. Without nearly any low priced upside, Peavy is a reasonable option on two pitcher sites where otherwise paying up for pitching. This is a tough spot for Cincinnat bats who don't appear to be priced down for a park where they are projected for less than four runs.

The Red Sox have tonight's second highest run projection (5.85) on a night when there is a game in Vegas. Bats are priced up on DraftKings against Peavy, as they usually are for the Red Sox at home, but a cheap arm like Lopez might allow players to afford this stack. Both left and right-handed bats have a wOBA right around .320 against Peavy since last season with a hard hit rate at 31%, but part of that is a product of a great park in San Francisco. David Ortiz (201 wRC+, .387 ISO vs RHP this season) is obviously a beast and top overall bat if you can afford him. Dustin Pedroia (121 wRC+ vs RHP this season) is actually the only Boston bat in the top six with a wRC+ above 100 (117) since the All Star break and is more of a bargain for $3.1K on FanDuel. Bradley (151 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP this season) and Betts (131 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP this season) are also coveted bats if you can afford them.

Firstly, Jake Peavy has a 6.61 xFIP in his last few starts, but has not paid significantly for his poor peripheral statistics. There is such thing as a successful flyball pitcher, but regression would sure seem to occur in the near future for Mr. Peavy. Secondly, Peavy has a 53% fly ball percentage against LHBs, while only giving up a 3% FB/HR ratio. He does play in San Francisco, but 3% seems much to low to be maintained for the remainder of the season. Lastly, Jake Lamb boasts a 168 wRC+ against RHPs, bolstered by a ridiculous 0.347 ISO.

Jake Peavy has actually pitched much better over the past month than he did to begin the season. The Athletics are far from offensive juggernauts (87 wRC+, .299 wOBA, .137 ISO vs RHP), however, and Peavy is prone to getting shelled anytime he takes the mound. We could really target either side of this matchup and feel fairly comfortable, but we'll give the slight edge the to the Athletics offense in this one. Josh Reddick (159 wRC+, .405 wOBA, .186 ISO vs RHP) returned to the lineup yesterday and is the Athletics best hitter. Danny Valencia (123 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .160 ISO vs RHP) and Khris Davis (107 wRC+, .330 wOBA, .237 ISO vs RHP) make for nice tournament plays with some HR upside. We can even consider Stephen Vogt (107 wRC+, .330 wOBA, .162 ISO vs RHP) as a reasonable priced catcher play on all sites.

It’s honestly not that easy to find good things to say about Jake Peavy nowadays. It’s a bit easier to do tonight with the Phillies heading to AT&T Park as huge underdogs, and with the win as valuable as it is on FanDuel, Peavy is squarely in play at his $7,100 price tag. His $6,900 price tag on DraftKings also makes it much easier to afford some of the higher end bats, even if you are also rostering a high-end arm like Max Scherzer alongside Peavy. Philadelphia ranks 2nd to last in wOBA (.288) and dead last in wRC+ (76) against RHP, and their lack of power should alleviate concerns over the amount of hard contact Peavy is allowing in the air. He’s not a recommended cash game play, but Peavy is more than viable in GPPs.

The Giants are resting their star catcher and Jake Peavy, despite being awful all season, looks like a playable SP today facing a woeful Padres offense at home as a significant favorite. That said, we can still look at the Padres as a contrarian stack option given how awful Peavy has been. The 2-5 hitters (Upton, Kemp, Wallace, Myers) are the only four in their lineup with wOBA's vs RHP topping .300 and they'd be the four to target. The Giants get a decent match up against James Shields who is extremely vulnerable to LH bats (.367 wOBA vs them last two seasons). The Giants have a lot of LH bats in today's lineup (six of the first seven) and all are viable options today. Joe Panik, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford are the top tier with Denard Span, Jarrett Parker, and Gregor Blanco secondary targets.

Jake Peavy has allowed a .464 wOBA vs. LHB and sports a 7.43 ERA this season. Peavy also has 1.75 WHIP and 36/15 K/BB ratio in eight starts this season. Jason Heyward had a hit in nine straight games before cooling off last night and putting up a bagel in 5 at-bats. He has struggled so far this season and has a .281 wOBA and a 71 wRC+, making him too risky for cash games. While they are not the top options at their position, Dexter Fowler and Anthony Rizzo also deserve some consideration against Peavy. Fowler (.441 wOBA, 178 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) also has a .492 wOBA, 211 wRC+ on the road this season. Rizzo doesn't have the greatest history against Peavy but has a .4388 wOBA and a 176 wRC+ vs. RHP this season.

Rickie Weeks Jr. is batting cleanup for the Diamondbacks today, offering modest upside, but serving as a potential value option in the outfield. One of the few positive Weeks offers is that he finished the 2015 season with an ISO of 0.149 against left-handed pitchers. According to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors page, Chase Field is an about average park for RHB and lacks the advantage Chase Field gives to LHB. Still, Weeks Jr. is facing Jake Peavy today, a pitcher who has given up all of his 7 home runs this year to right-handed batters.

Jake Peavy has allowed a 36.2 Hard Hit %, 4.28 SIERA and 4.74 xFIP so far this season. Tonight he will face the potent Blue Jays offense in pitcher friendly AT&T Park. The Blue Jays haven’t hit well on the road this year, posting a team .293 wOBA, 90 wRC+ and 25.7K% while playing in outside of Toronto. They haven’t fared much better against RHP either, as they own a team .308 wOBA, 96 wRC+ and 24.7K% while facing righties this season. Jake Peavy isn’t the pitcher that he once was, but could be in for a decent outing. Consider him a deep GPP at best. If you’re looking to exploit Peavy, consider both Kevin Pillar (.339 wOBA vs RHP this year) who is hitting leadoff and Jose Bautista (.360 wOBA vs RHP this year) who will be in the 3 spot tonight.