James Shields Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Elite bats return to lineup in a strong spot
After a night off for most of their regulars last night, the Indians return to their regularly scheduled lineup tonight to face James Shields in Chicago. There is some weather concern in this game, but the Tribe currently have an implied run line right around five. Despite Shields being 50 points better against LHBs by wOBA this season, xwOBA has him above .350 against batters from either side and separated by less than 10 points. The issue here is that the bats you want are very obvious. Francisco Lindor (121 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP this year), Michael Brantley (136 wRC+, .190 ISO), Jose Ramirez (161 wRC+, .320 ISO) and even Edwin Encarnacion (120 wRC+, .249 ISO) are so far ahead of the rest of the lineup that only Yonder Alonso (103 wRC+, .191 ISO) is even above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP among remaining hitters.
Slugging DH gains value against reverse split pitcher this season
Cleveland has the highest implied run line on the board (5.85) with only one other team above five runs. It was a similar situation last night and they didn't score their first run until the ninth inning. Tonight, they'll face James Shields, who has a major reverse split by wOBA (.351 vs .294), but Statcast has batters from either side of the plate within seven points of a .360 xwOBA. His ground ball rate is well below 40% either way. As always, Jose Ramirez (167 wRC+, .327 ISO vs RHP this season) and Francisco Lindor (120 wRC+, .251 ISO) are the elite bats, along with Michael Brantley (135 wRC+, .187 ISO). Edwin Encarnacion (116 wRC+, .249 ISO) gains value in this spot. This is an expensive lineup, but stackable at least through the first half, along with Jason Kipnis (94 wRC+, .163 ISO) if funds are available to do so.
The Game Theory Cheap Pitcher
There isn't a whole lot in James Shields numbers that will tell you that he's a great play today, but he is the pivot off of an uber chalk Gio Gonzalez. If you're going cheap in cash I would not go here, but in tournaments he's a fantastic play. Shields is likely to come in around 3% owned and he's had 15+ DK points in 5 of his last 7 starts. Shields has the potential to get 25+ points in a game regardless of the matchup and the weather conditions in Chicago are fantastic for keeping the ball in the park. Currently, the game should have 20 MPH winds blowing in from center and the temp should be under 70. Even with a good Angels offense here, Shields has a chance to outscore Gio by 10 points.
Not the usual names, but still really good
It may not be all the names that you're used to, but nobody is surprised that the Yankees are one of three teams well ahead of the pack with a 6.23 run line at home against James Shields. Deep Game James usually gets his six innings in, but they're not always quality innings. In fact, it's an advantage to hitters that should get three cracks against him, when they have an xwOBA above .350 from either side of the plate this year. After Brett Gardner (96 wRC+, .140 ISO), the next five batters in the order all have at least a .190 ISO with a wRC+ above 115 against RHP this year. Luke Voit has a 341 wRC+ with three HRs in 19 PAs over the last week and costs just $300 above the minimum on FanDuel ($3.7K on DK) in the middle of this order.
Detroit can offer bats or arms depending on lineup goals
Interestingly, the Tigers (4.68) and White Sox (4.32) are two of the three teams above four implied runs on Thursday afternoon. However, if players want exposure to the top offense on the slate, they'll probably also have to consider exposure to either Matt Boyd or James Shields in this game, especially on DraftKings. Neither really exceeds a league average strikeout rate (Boyd 21.8%, Shields 18.2%), but Shields has failed to complete six innings just three times since April (once by a single out) and is facing an offense with a 78 wRC+ and 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP, while Boyd has a .291 xwOBA and 86.4 mph aEV and is in a higher upside matchup (White Sox 18+ K-BB% on the road and vs LHP). The other side of this is that players are going to need bats from this game if paying up for the top arms this afternoon. Avisail Garcia (160 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the top overall bat from the Chicago side and very affordable. Ryan LaMarre and Jose Rondon both bat in the front five this afternoon. Neither has even 30 PAs against LHP, but both are below $3K on either site. Boyd has held RHBs to a .283 wOBA this season. The Detroit lineup has Nick Castellanos (118 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Jim Adduci (112 wRC+, .150 ISO) and Jeimer Candelario (98 wRC+, .166 ISO) all in the top half with only Castellanos above $4K on DraftKings. RHBs have a .325 wOBA against Shields this season, but LHBs have a .359 xwOBA, 60 points above their actual mark against him this season.
A Gascan That's Gonna Crush It
Look, there isn't much about Shields numbers that should really tell you to play him. He gives up a lot of HR's, he doesn't have a great K rate or walk rate, and he gives up a lot of fly balls, but he has been pitching pretty well lately. In his last four starts he has gotten 18+ DK points 3 times. He draws a matchup against the Rays in TB (which is a decent pitchers park) and their projected lineup has decent K upside (22% K rate in the projected lineup) and with HR's being the bigget problem, you shouldn't expect many with only 2 guys with an ISO above .120. This could go terrible wrong, but his price is low and so should his ownership. Play him an pray if you've got the balls.
Big lineup bump for major bat
While James Shields nearly always gets his six innings in and may be an interesting SP two choice on DraftKings, the Angels are still above five implied runs (5.07) against him in a negative run environment. LHBs have a .334 wOBA and .366 xwOBA that exceeds that of their counterparts by around 20 points against Shields since last year. The big news in this one is a lineup bump for Shohei Ohtani (181 wRC+, .313 ISO) who now looks like a great value for more than $1.5K less than Mike Trout (181 wRC+, .299 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) on either site. Kole Calhoun (96 wRC+, .182 ISO) is a value OF bat at the top of the lineup as well.
It's Really Come To This?
When looking at this four-game main slate, I want to attack the bats, and by doing that, I'm willing to take a shot on James Shields. You never feel good about playing someone like Shields, but with four-games over 8.5 totals, you're not going to feel great about anyone on this slate. Shields still has trouble with allowing home runs, but the ISO numbers are way down this season because of his changeup. He throws his changeup 23% of the time and has a .069 ISO with a .280 wOBA against it this season. His fastball is his problem, and that's one of the things that bothers me with this spot.
There's nothing safe about this, but I'd be really happy if he puts up 15 points on DK and FTD as an SP2 and he's shown 20+ point upside this season.
Pitching options are severely limited and fairly straight forward on a small slate tonight
Just four games on the night slate with six teams currently above 4.75 implied runs and the other two below four runs. That makes pitching really straight forward tonight. Both David Price and Tyler Skaggs are between $9-10.2K on either site and have matchups far better than anyone else. Skaggs has a 24.8 K% that's only fourth best on the slate, but two of the three pitchers above him are at Coors tonight, the other has a 12.9 K% over the last month and is a home run machine, who must face the Red Sox tonight. Skaggs struck out just one Astro, allowing three runs in his last start, breaking a streak of six straight starts with one earned run or less. He gets the White Sox (18.3 K-BB% on the road, 18.5 K-BB% vs LHP) in at home tonight. Price has been inconsistent at best, but did pitch into the seventh without allowing a run to the Tigers last time out and has a 24 K% on the season. The Orioles have just a 21.5 K% vs LHP, but an 80 wRC+ and 9.2 Hard-Soft% against southpaws as well, numbers that were built with Machado in the lineup this season. Charlie Morton (31.2 K%, 3.29 SIERA, .287 xwOBA) certainly has upside, but he has been inconsistent as well. Coors is not a death blow (80 wRC+, .15.2 K-BB% vs RHP) and he does cost a reasonable $8.8K on DraftKings, but there are weather concerns in this game, as well as in Baltimore for Price. The same can be said of Jon Gray (28.5 K%, 3.20 SIERA, .296 xwOBA), whose 5.44 ERA and .376 BABIP are perplexing. He costs $7.5K against a supercharged Houston offense tonight (120 wRC+ on the road, 111 wRC+ vs RHP). One additional consideration on a small slate might be...(gulp)...James Shields (20.7 K%, 4.41 SIERA over the last 30 days). Don't expect much against an Angels' offense with a 109 wRC+ and 20.3 K% vs RHP, but it's a park upgrade he costs just $6K on DraftKings and he has completed six innings in 15 of his last 17 starts, missing once by a single out.
West coast offense at nearly five implied runs in difficult park
The Seattle Mariners have the highest implied run line among west coast offenses at 4.89, which is fourth highest on the entire slate, rare upside for a game in Seattle. The interesting part is that James Shields has is pitching deep into games (fewer than 97 pitches just once in his last 13 starts) and has been missing bats at a league average rate (10 SwStr%). However, his estimators remain in the mid to upper fours with an xwOBA above .350 for the season and over the last month. A .209 BABIP is why LHBs are below a .300 wOBA against him this season, though he's only allowed a 30.7% hard hit rate against them. RHBs have a .330 wOBA and 36.5 Hard% that's a bit higher than their ground ball rate against him this year (34.5%). The Seattle lineup has not yet been released, but this does not bode well for a lineup that is expected to feature Nelson Cruz (152 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mitch Haniger (139 wRC+, .236 ISO).