Jameson Taillon Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Monday's MLB slate boasts three pitchers above $10K on both sites with one more reaching that mark only on DraftKings. At this point in the season, DFS players need to examine the motivations of certain teams, particularly those who are already locked into a specific post-season slot. That is certainly the cast for Cleveland with Corey Kluber (25.9 K%, 3.26 SIERA, .295 xwOBA) on the mound against in Chicago (AL) (18.7 K-BB% vs RHP). It's a high upside spot and Kluber has a 33.1 K% over the last month, but the Tribe may not be motivated to extend him very far tonight. The same can't' be said of Clayton Kershaw (24.1 K%, 3.42 SIERA, .289 xwOBA) with the Dodgers just a game and a half up in the division. Kershaw is in Arizona (81 wRC+ at home, 93 wRC+ vs LHP, 42 wRC+ last seven days). He's gone at least six innings in 14 straight starts with as many as three ERs in only two of those. However, he has just a 21.3 K%, 3.94 SIERA and .310 xwOBA over the last month, which are basically all league average numbers. Stephen Strasburg (28.9 K%, 3.24 SIERA, .314 xwOBA) has allowed two ERs or less in five straight and struck out 20 of his last 53 batters. He's in a nice spot at home against the Marlins (85 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP). Jameson Taillon (22.8 K%, 3.75 SIERA, .296 xwOBA) has seen another strikeout rate spike over the last month (28.6%) and has gone seven innings in three of his last four starts. The price hike comes in a tough spot at Wrigley (Cubs 12.4 K-BB% vs RHP). Both the Nationals and Cubs are out of contention at this point.

Players are more likely than not spending up for pitching tonight. On DraftKings, that may also necessitate moving to the bottom of the board for an SP2. Josh James is making just his second start and doesn't have a very appealing matchup (Mariners 20.2 K% vs RHP). However, he pitches in one of the most negative run environments in baseball, had a 24.9 K-BB% in 17 AAA starts, and costs the minimum on DK. Joey Lucchesi is an affordable arm in the $7.5K range, who may be used as a compliment or even on his own against the Giants (80 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB%, 10.5 HR/FB vs LHP). He has a 25.4 K% and 3.78 SIERA with a matching ERA. His workload is a bit erratic though, going over 100 three starts back, but below 90 in three of his last four overall. Anibal Sanchez (24.1 K%, 3.92 SIERA, .291 xwOBA) is in a decent spot against the Cardinals (95 wRC+, 14.0 K-BB% vs RHP) at a reasonable cost around $8K. A bit more expensive are Jameson Taillon (22 K%, 3.84 SIERA, .299 xwOBA) hosting the Royals (93 wRC+, 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP) and Derek Holland (23.8 K%, 4.12 SIERA, .328 xwOBA) in San Diego (89 wRC+, 15.5 K-BB% vs LHP).

Without an exceptional value among tonight's highest priced arms, paying down for pitching is a reasonable consideration tonight, though there's significant risk in a lot of those spots as well. Nick Pivetta continues to have trouble keeping runs off the board, but also has the third highest strikeout rate on the board (28.2%). The .337 BABIP simply has no basis. In fact, his .306 wOBA suggests a much better pitcher. The Cubs may be difficult (11.7 K-BB%), but it’s not an overall terrible spot. Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 14 earned runs over his last 17 innings and another seven unearned runs with just 12 strikeouts (91 BF). He has shown some upside this year and is in a high upside matchup (White Sox 18.8 K-BB% vs RHP) with a park upgrade tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu has not reached even 90 pitches in an outing since April. He does have a 29.7 K% on the season and 26.9 K% since returning from the DL, though with just a league average SwStr%. He has the best xwOBA on the board (.273) by over 20 points and that number drops to .225 in his five home starts. The Diamondbacks are a better offense vs LHP (101 wRC+ and a split best 26.7 Hard-Soft%), but they have a team 53 wRC+, 17.5 K-BB% and 8.0 HR/FB over the last week and find themselves in one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. Andrew Suarez and Antonio Senzatela are below average pitchers, but in great matchups and great parks at a low cost. Jameson Taillon has eight strikeouts in each of his last two starts. If he can sustain a strikeout rate even a little above average, he’s a useful arm now that he’s pitching deeper into games (at least six innings in six straight and eight of his last nine starts). His .298 xwOBA is tied for third best on the board. The Braves have just a 20.3 K% vs RHP, but are not an above average offense against them.

Middle of the board pitchers come with some risk tonight, but you'll also find upside that matches the highest priced pitchers in some cases. One such arm is Jon Gray. He's focused on ground balls since returning from AAA, throwing 14.1 innings at Coors, allowing just two runs to the Astros and Mariners, striking out 12 with a ground ball rate above 65%. Last season, he changed his pitch usage to get ground balls at home, but strikeouts on the road. He gets a massive park upgrade where he'll face an offense with a 94 wRC+ vs RHP in St Louis. His 28.2 K% is fourth best on the board, his 3.23 SIERA is second. He's had issues shaking a .350+ BABIP this year though. On the other side of that matchup, Jack Flaherty has the third best strikeout rate on the board (29.7%) and is fourth best in SIERA (3.40) and xwOBA (.290). His 85.9 mph aEV tops the board among tonight’s starters. He hasn’t exceeded five innings in four straight starts and has a 17.6 HR/FB. He may be in the top park adjusted spot on the board, hosting the Rockies (80 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP). Trevor Cahill out43.2 IP – 10 ER – 11 BB – 41 K – 165 BF. He’s also been below a 57 GB% just once outside that state, as opposed to below that all four times pitching in it. His 13.0 SwStr% is a top five mark on tonight’s board. He pitches against a decent Toronto offense, but in a favorable home park. side four trips to the state of Texas this year: Walker Buehler did not pitch well in his first start after the break (5 ER, 2 HR), but was up to 90 pitches, which should get him through six with efficiency tonight. He faces a dangerous Milwaukee offense (16.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but in the best park with some upside. Their 25.1 K% vs RHP matches his 25.3% season mark. Jameson Taillon started throwing his slider in earnest in his 11th start of the season with the following results: 3.09 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 18.2 K-BB%, 50.8 GB%. For some reason, he’s been below 20% on the pitch in each of his last three starts with an increase in curveballs. The Cubs have just an 11.2 K-BB% with a 106 wRC+ vs RHP, so it’s not going to be easy, but it’s doable. Danny Duffy has struck out just 10 of his last 57 batters and allowed seven runs to the Tigers last time out, but the White Sox are very, very bad (18.6 K-BB% at home, 85 wRC+, 18.7 K-BB% vs LHP). Zack Godley has a 25.6 K% with a 15 SwStr% over the last month with a 3.91 SIERA over that span, but a much higher ERA due to a .378 BABIP and 62.2 LOB%. The Rangers have a 25.6 K% and 92 wRC+ vs RHP.