Jason Hammel Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Red Sox are still in a positive run environment, but on the road and in a power suppressing one in Kansas City, yet still top the board with 5.4 implied runs tonight. Jason Hammel is a fly ball pitcher with a 20 point gap in his splits (in favor or RHBs actually), though xwOBA brings both sides within three points of .360 since last season (the power suppressing home park and strong defense probably helps). The top three are great if you can afford them: Mookie Betts (127 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Andrew Benintendi (122 wRC+, .188 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (176 wRC+, .372 ISO). Steve Pearce (110 wRC+, .187 ISO) may be the top value here. He's been surprisingly above average against same-handed pitching over the last calendar year and costs less than $4K (just $2.5K on FanDuel) out of the cleanup spot.

Jason Hammel has a 20.9 K% and 2.8 ERA and FIP over the last month, but the xwOBA is still an ugly .360. In fact, batters from either side are within one point of that xwOBA since the beginning of last season against him. Joey Gallo is out of the lineup and Kansas City is not Texas, but the top half of this lineup still looks strong. Shin-Soo Choo (121 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Adrian Beltre (126 wRC+, .203 ISO) both exceed a 230 wRC+ and 40 Hard% over the last week. Elvis Andrus (115 wRC+, .178 ISO) is within $200 of $3.5K on either site.

The Reds couldn't get anything going against Ian Kennedy last night, finally breaking through against a weak Kansas City bullpen, Tonight, they'll face a pitcher of similar quality in Jason Hammel, who has an actual wOBA some 20 to 35 points lower than his xwOBA against batters from either side. The latter puts each within two points of .360 since last year, each with a 35% hard hit rate and plenty of fly balls in a big park that often saves him, though it's more power than run suppressing. It's hard to find a poor choice among the first six batters in a lineup Vegas has projected at 4.99 runs tonight (second highest total on the board). Joey Votto (178 wRC+, .447 xwOBA, .220 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) may be both the top overall bat and value on DraftKings. Scooter Gennett (143 wRC+, .238 ISO) has a similar price tag. Scott Schebler (101 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Jesse Winker (132 wRC+, .165 ISO) are much cheaper on FanDuel. Jose Peraza (69 wRC+, .069 ISO) has a top Stolen Base Rating (available to premium subscribers).

The Oakland A's have a perfectly respectable 4.68 implied run line despite a power and run suppressing park in Oakland against Jason Hammel, who has pitched into the sixth inning in four straight starts and allowed a total of four runs over his last three. His .383 xwOBA is second worst on the board however, and he most recently faced this same Oakland team, a start in which he struck out just three over six innings. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA within five points of .330 against him, but it seems that a big park in Kansas City has benefited him, as his xwOBA pushes that mark above .350 for both sides. Each of the first five batters in the Oakland lineup has a 110 wRC+ or better against RHP over the last calendar year. Jed Lowrie (118 wRC+, .174 ISO) is the only one of the five below a .200 ISO. Matt Olson (152 wRC+, .340 ISO) is the clear top bat, followed closely by Khris Davis (134 wRC+, .279 ISO), who costs a bit more. Both, along with Dustin Fowler (115 wRC+, .203 ISO) have a wRC+ above 200 and hard hit rate exceeding 50% over the last week.

That a team with a 98 wRC+ at home and against RHP has the second highest implied run line (5.17) on the board in a negative run environment speaks to pretty strongly towards the lack of success Jason Hammel has had this season (6.28 ERA, 5.33 SIERA, .408 xwOBA, board low 11.4 K%). The absence of Tommy Pham from the lineup may even have the added advantage of making a St Louis stack more viable with high cost pitching tonight. Jose Martinez (121 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the highest priced batter in the lineup ($4K DK/$3.5K FD). Batters from either side have an actual wOBA within four points of .330 and an xwOBA within four of .350 against Hammels since last season. Leadoff man Dexter Fowler (125 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Matt Carpenter (125 wRC+, .216 ISO) are top value plays tonight. The latter has a 262 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last seven days.

The Rays and Royals are both in the upper middle of the board as two of six teams between 4.6 and 4.9 implied runs this afternoon (four are above five) despite only Mike Moustakas (132 wRC+, .284 ISO) and C.J. Cron (108 wRC+, .203 ISO) the only batters in either lineup to combine a wRC+ above 100 with an ISO above .200 against RHP over the last calendar year. No other batter (either lineup) even reaches a 110 wRC+ individually over that span. Salvador Perez (93 wRC+, .204 ISO) is the only other one exceeding a .180 ISO. Both batters are fine plays this afternoon with both pitchers at a .330 xwOBA or above against batters from either side since last season. Both pitchers have ERAs above five and an xwOBA above .370 overall this season with a very similar aEV around 89.5. Faria is the more talented arm with a strikeout rate (19.3%) seven points higher, but that's still well below what he accomplished last year.

On paper, everything points to a Boston (second best 5.29 implied runs) romp of Jason Hammel (12.8 K% with a 5.03 SIERA 1.65 points above his ERA). The Red Sox have a 129 wRC+ (17.8 K%) vs RHP, but an 85 wRC+ (28.1 K%) overall in the last seven days. Mookie Betts is out of the lineup and though it doesn't appear a cancellation concern it's likely to be wet and cold (< 50 degrees) in Boston tonight. Fenway may still be the top park on the board and batters from either side have a .340+ xwOBA against Hammels since last year. Players should still strongly consider paying up for J.D. Martinez (150 wRC+, .422 xwOBA, .337 ISO, 49.5 Hard% vs RHP since 2017). Mitch Moreland (103 wRC+, .217 ISO) is actually the only other guy in the lineup above a .200 ISO against RHP since last season, but he's sporting a -81 wRC+ over the last week that's the lowest in baseball among those with at least 10 PAs. Andrew Benintendi and Hanley Ramirez are both around league average or slightly better bats against RHP with an ISO in the .180 range since last season. Top of the order Red Sox will likely be popular tonight.

The Los Angeles Angels have been one of the top offenses this season (139 wRC+ on the road, 133 wRC+ vs RHP, 157 wRC+ last seven days) and have one of the top implied run lines on the board (5.25) in Kansas City. Jason Hammel is not terrible, but is probably a below average pitcher at this point without much of a platoon split. In fact. RHBs had a .357 xwOBA against him last year. Perhaps the .322 actual wOBA (and .328 actual wOBA vs .342 xwOBA for LHBs) is in part due to a park that suppresses power for fly ball pitchers. The top bats vs RHP since last year for the Angels are all fairly expensive. Mike Trout (186 wRC+, .346 ISO) costs the same as a low end pitcher, while Justin Upton (121 wRC+, .236 ISO), Zack Cozart (135 wRC+, .241 ISO) and even Shohei Ohtani (up a spot in the order tonight) are in the $4K+ range on either site. Kole Calhoun (101 wRC+, .247 ISO) is just an average bat, but may be the value play here. Ian Kinsler (82 wRC+, .158 ISO) also costs less than $3K on FanDuel.

While the top four implied run lines are still separated by less than one-tenth of a run tonight (5.22 to 5.3), it's the St Louis Cardinals that have made a big jump since this afternoon to move in behind them at 4.94 runs, up from 4.63 runs early this afternoon. The Royals have made a slightly smaller corresponding move from 3.87 to 4.06, meaning bettors more likely see the Cardinals as being responsible for the rise in total overall runs. Jason Hammel has pitched better of late, but LHBs still have a 33 Hard% (.320 wOBA) against him since last season. Both Matt Carpenter (134 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP this year) and Dexter Fowler (120 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP this year) have a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week (wRC+ above 180). There have been no other significant movers on the slate since this afternoon. Players can find run lines and movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.

Jason Hammel continues to be a very hittable starting pitcher this season, allowing at least three earned runs in eight of his 10 starts on the year and further evidenced by his abysmal 6.18 ERA. Hammel has fallen victim to a high .341 BABIP, but even if his BABIP begins to neutralize, it's difficult to imagine him performing much better than his current 5.11 SIERA with a subpar strikeout rate (16.7%), swinging strike rate (8.5%) and a high 9.6% walk rate. He has also never been a starting pitcher with significant splits throughout his career, and this season is no different, keeping all of the Cleveland Indians hitters in play this afternoon. On the year, Hammel has just 14.7% strikeout rate to right-handed batters and though he sees a slight uptick in strikeouts against left-handed batters, that also comes with a massive 49.5% fly ball rate. This means that this Indians lineup is fully stackable in tournaments, and we can look for power upside from Francisco Lindor (.248 ISO vs RHP), Jose Ramirez (.244 ISO vs RHP), Edwin Encarnacion (.224 ISO vs RHP), and Carlos Santana (.206 ISO vs RHP). Along with Lindor and Ramirez, Michael Brantley (139 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .175 ISO vs RHP) also possesses strong contact skills against right-handed pitching, elevating him to the status of a cash game option or a way to round out an Indians stack in large field tournaments.