Jason Vargas Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Jason Vargas’s tenure in Philadelphia hasn’t been very efficient so far. He’s sporting a 4.93 ERA and it’s not even really the contact that’s worsened with the park downgrade. He still has a 4.62 FIP that’s right in line with his season rate, allowing just four HRs in seven starts. His .305 xwOBA over the last 30 days is 42 points less than actual results and seven points lower than his season xwOBA. It’s been the strikeout rate that has actually plummeted all the way down to 13.9%. This is an incredibly dangerous spot for Vargas with a 37.9 GB%. The projected lineup for the Braves features six batters above a 115 wRC+ and five with a .250 ISO or above vs LHP this year. In small samples, Adam Duvall (194 wRC+, .407 ISO, .399 xwOBA) and Austin Riley (167 wRC+, .455 ISO, .439 xwOBA) have destroyed southpaws. Each costs exactly $4K on DraftKings and $2.5K or less on FanDuel. Affordable compliments to a powerful top half of the lineup, likely containing Ronald Acuna (131 wRC+, .281 ISO), Ozzie Albies (175 wRC+, .296 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (123 wRC+, .250 ISO). All three are above a 130 wRC+ and 45% hard hit rate over the last week. The Braves are currently seventh on the board at 5.31 implied runs tonight.

Conditions in Philadelphia call for an offensive bump (despite a pitcher friendly umpire) and Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta may be just the pitchers to provide some fireworks. Vargas has followed up a run of one run or less in six of seven outings with 10 runs (eight earned) over his last 14.2 innings (10 K, 7 BB, 2 HR) and the threat of physical violence against a reporter. With an 8.1 K-BB%, .266 BABIP, 9.7 HR/FB, 5.89 DRA and .322 xwOBA, regression was always coming for him. It was just a matter of how hard it was going to hit. To his credit, he owns a board low 86.2 mph aEV on the season and still has a .288 xwOBA over the last month. That’s where the temperature near 90 degrees comes in. It will likely carry those baseballs a bit further. Each of the first five in the projected Philadelphia batting order (Scott Kingery, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto) are all above a 100 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year with the lefty, Harper, having the most success (146 wRC+, .270 ISO).

On the other end, Nick Pivetta has allowed five HRs over his last two starts and multiple HRs in five of his nine starts overall. A quarter of his fly balls have left the yard this year, which is the same percentage of his overall contact that have been line drives. So while his non-FIP estimators are closer to four and a half, his .372 xwOBA is just eight points away from his actual mark. He’s striking out fewer batters this year with 10.8% of his contact qualifying as Barrels. Batters from either side of the plate have exactly a .328 xwOBA against Pivetta over the last calendar year (with actual wOBAs a bit higher). Each of the first seven Mets in the projected order are above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last 12 months with Pete Alonso (146 wRC+, .305 ISO), Michael Conforto (139 wRC+, .256 ISO), Todd Frazier (108 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Dominic Smith (124 wRC+, .228 ISO) flashing the most power. Robinson Cano (110 wRC+, .193 ISO) continues to be very cheap due to recent struggles.

The Brewers will face Jason Vargas in Miller Park Sunday as Vargas is still somehow in the Mets’ rotation. Vargas has a 6.31 xFIP, 3.1 K-BB% and .394 xwOBA on the year while throwing a fastball 57% of the time that is averaging 85 MPH. Since 2018, Vargas has actually been equally bad vs. RHB and LHB in terms of xwOBA. Ryan Braun (.432 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Christian Yelich (.408), Lorenzo Cain (.377), Jesus Aguilar (.366) and Hernan Perez (.316) are all options in the Brewers order today. Jesus Aguilar and Ryan Braun both have an xwOBA over .400 in the past 10 days and are batting 3-4 in the order. Aguilar is just $3.9k and will continue to be chalk as his price slowly adjusts from his slow start. The Brewers have a 5.16 implied line vs. Vargas and the Mets, which does feels a bit low given the matchup and environment.

Jason Vargas has been horrid this year with a .440 xwOBA allowed, a 14.21 ERA, 8.17 xFIP and 63.3% hard contact rate allowed. Vargas recorded just one out in his last start, is averaging just 84.7 MPH on his fastball and flat out doesn’t look deserves to be in an MLB starting rotation. The Cardinals have a 4.93 implied total tonight which seems somewhat low given the matchup. Paul Goldschmidt (.411 xwOBA vs. LHP in 2018), Marcell Ozuna (.395), Jose Martinez (.388), Matt Carpenter (.369), Yadier Molina (.365) have all mashed LHP and are great options tonight vs. Vargas. Paul Dejong (.290) has not seen great success vs. LHP but nonetheless is a fine option batting 3rd in a stacked Cardinals order. Jose Martinez and Yadi Molina stand out as the best value plays as the only batters in the STL lineup under $4k on Draftkings. Marcell Ozuna is the hottest hitter in the lineup with a .570 xwOBA over the past 7 days.

Thursday night's six game slate features just a single pitcher above a $10K price point and while Gerrit Cole (35.1 K%, 2.88 SIERA, .284 xwOBA) has a great matchup in Baltimore (90 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP), it's a significant park downgrade with some potential weather issues in a game where the Astros have absolutely no reason to extend him. Where might players look for their daily fantasy pitching needs tonight? The most obvious candidate is in Seattle, where Marco Gonzales (20.8 K%, 3.83 SIERA, .324 xwOBA) takes the mound against the Rangers (83 wRC+ on the road, 87 wRC+ vs LHP) for just $6.3K on FanDuel. He's probably viable as well on DraftKings even at a cost $2.5K higher, where players need two pitchers. The other interesting spot to look for pitching is in New York, where Julio Teheran (22.4 K%, 4.67 SIERA, .337 xwOBA) and Jason Vargas (20.5 K%, 4.40 SIERA, .342 xwOBA) face off. Both have their flaws, but Teheran has at least five strikeouts in nine straight games and has allowed more than two runs just twice over that span. Vargas is facing an Atlanta offense with a 110 wRC+ and 19.9 K% vs LHP, but costs just $5.6K on DK and has a 26.4 K% over the last month with an ERA and estimators below four over that span.

Though well below the Indians, the Nationals (5.23) are still one of just two teams above five implied runs tonight. Jason Vargas has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts, but still has a 6.47 ERA and 4.48 FIP on the season. While RHBs have a .382 wOBA against him this season, Statcast flips the switch and puts LHBs (.372 xwOBA) 31 points above RHBs. He's kept the ball on the ground 40% of the time against batters from either side of the plate. Considering the run projection, Victor Robles has to be strongly considered from the leadoff spot, especially for just $2.2K on FanDuel. He's had few opportunities so far, but does have a 136 wRC+ over the last seven days. Anthony Rendon (135 wRC+, .263 ISO vs LHP this season) and Ryan Zimmerman (199 wRC+, .299 ISO) have mashed southpaws, while Bryce Harper (131 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Juan Soto (145 wRC+, .232 ISO have hit same-handed pitching very well.

The Dodgers, like the Mariners, have an uncommonly high implied run line for a west coast game (4.92), not to mention the most negative environment on the west coast. While the fact is that Jason Vargas has been pitching much better of late (3.31 ERA, 3.88 SIERA last 30 days), as has the Mets' bullpen, he still has a .385 wOBA against RHBs this year. At least some exposure to Manny Machado (148 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP this season), Justin Turner (189 wRC+, .241 ISO) and Matt Kemp (124 wRC+, .237 ISO) is a probably warranted, though the total in this game may be a tad aggressive.

Mid and low priced pitchers tonight offer some interesting DFS options, some whom players may have completely bypassed and been right to do so only a month or so ago. Trevor Richards (23.6 K%, 4.34 SIERA, .339 xwOBA) has a 27.5 K% over the last month and pitches in a great park against an offense with a 94 wRC+ and 25.2 K% vs RHP. The Phillies also have a 60 wRC+ and 23.6 K-BB% with a -5.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Richards costs $6.6K on FanDuel. Jason Vargas (19.4 K%, 4.52 SIERA, .346 xwOBA) has to face the Dodgers, whose 93 wRC+ vs LHP this season is not an accurate representation of the current lineup. However, they have a 26.8 K% over the last week and Vargas gets to face them in an extremely negative run environment at a low cost, having struck out 14 of his last 43 batters over 11.1 innings (1 ER) against the Nationals and Cubs. Joe Musgrove (19.5 K%, 4.07 SIERA, .303 xwOBA) has completed seven innings in eight of 16 starts and faces an average Reds' offense at home. Wade LeBlanc (19.6 K%, 4.79 SIERA, .321 xwOBA) is still flying well below his estimators, but his contact profile seems to suggest there's something to that and he gets to hose the Orioles (77 wRC+ vs LHP). Alex Cobb (15.6 K%, 4.55 SIERA, .350 xwOBA) had a streak of six straight starts with at least six innings snapped in his last start. He has a 2.79 ERA with league average estimators since the All-Star break and still costs less than $6K on DraftKings. Joey Lucchesi (25.7 K%, 3.74 SIERA, .326 xwOBA) has gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts and is likely to be an under-valued arm in Arizona for $8K or less. Jake Arrieta (17.9 K%, 4.36 SIERA, .322 xwOBA) is in a great park in Miami.

Soft tossing (or at least below average velocity) lefties could be a theme on this daily fantasy slate with only six pitchers above a league average strikeout rate. Dallas Keuchel gone at least seven innings in five of his last nine starts, has the third best ground ball rate on the board (53.8%) and the seventh best xwOBA (.309). Most importantly, the Angels are absent their two legitimate right-handed bats. The drawback is his lowered strikeout rate this year (17.5%) and also that of the Angels vs LHP (20.8%). Rich HIll has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (though with just a 9.1 SwStr%) and is actually closer to the bottom of the board than the top with a .343 xwOBA, but it’s been better over the last month (.303) and he’s in a great matchup (Padres 24 K% vs LHP) in a great park. C.C. Sabathia has struck out 19 of his last 47 batters. His .305 xwOBA is sixth best on the board and he has the lowest aEV (84.9 mph). He’s missed two weeks with a knee issue and the Orioles are a predominantly right-handed lineup (.313 wOBA, 13 HRs vs Sabathia this season). That’s not a particularly good right-handed lineup and batters from that side have been just league average against him, but the O’s have just a 21.9 K% vs LHP, despite a 75 wRC+. Andrew Heaney's ERA is up over the last month and he's in a tough spot against the Astros. However, it's in a negative run environment and his estimators have remained on pace with his season rates below four, while his 22.8 K% is sixth best on the board. Jason Vargas has a career high 10.5 SwStr% and just an 85.5 mph aEV. He's allowed just four runs over 11.1 innings in his last two starts and the Nationals are a deep and balanced, but under-performing offense for the entire season now. Gio Gonzalez has been terrible (2.4 K-BB% last 13 starts), but so are the Mets at home (80 wRC+, 8.6 HR/FB) and vs LHP (79 wRC+, 25.5 K%). A couple of RHPs might even be more interesting tonight. Joe Musgrove has gone at least seven innings in eight of his 14 starts. He has set down 13 of his last 53 batters on strikes and has a ground ball rate above 50% in four of his last five starts. His 86.6 mph aEV is sixth best on the board, which gives him the best xwOBA on the board at .291. The Brewers have a 16+ HR/FB at home and vs RHP, but also a 25+ K% at home and vs RHP. Zack Godley is facing a contact prone Seattle offense (20.2%), but his 11.9 SwStr% is highest on the board along with a 50.9 GB% and in an NL park, the Mariners are likely to be without one of their top bats, perhaps Nelson Cruz.