Jeff Francoeur Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Adam Morgan struggles with hard contact in the air, but gets a favorable park switch against ailing Marlins
Adam Morgan has struck out 13 of his last 48 batters with just two walks, but three HRs. A 0.92 GB/FB and 35.9 Hard% are the issues at hand here, but he gets a park upgrade in Miami against an offense with little power (88 wRC+, 9.7 HR/FB at home) and a 22.3 K% vs LHP. With Ozuna joining Stanton on the sidelines (or bench), Jeff Francoeur (.144 ISO) and Martin Prado (.152 ISO) become the power against LHP in this lineup. Don't consider it an endorsement of Morgan as much as an indictment of the Marlins for a low cost. That said, there are a couple of bats worth a look here. RHBs have a .377 wOBA and 35.9 Hard% against Morgan in his career. This lowly lineup is still projected for 4.6 runs. Martin Prado still has a 202 wRC+ vs LHP despite the limited power this year and a 52.6 Hard% over the last week. He may be one of the top values at 3B on FanDuel ($3.1K). Destin Hood immediately becomes viable as a RHB in the second spot for $2.6K on either site without even having to know anything else about him (there's not really anything interesting to know).
Ozuna and Realmuto OUT agianst deGrom tonight.
Jacob deGrom returns a bit early after his skipped start due to Steven Matz's continued shoulder issues. The hope is that extra rest will revitalize him after two rough starts as extra time off has done in the past for him. deGrom himself believes he's just leaving too many pitches over the plate and his Fangraphs heat maps fully support this. He only allowed a lot of hard contact in the second of those bad starts though with his velocity down just a bit, so maybe the extra rest with the knowledge of command issues will help. Something else that will likely help is an awful looking Marlins lineup with Ichiro Suzuki (92 wRC+, .070 ISO vs RHP this season) batting second and Jeff Francoeur (70 wRC+, .123 ISO vs RHP this season) batting fifth in the absence of Marcell Ozuna tonight. J.T. Realmuto is out as well. deGrom is going to be very difficult to fade on a three game slate, but our Projected Ownership page has him at 67% on DraftKings and 50% on FanDuel tonight.
Wei-Yin Chen is allowing a ton of hard contact (37.1%), but has a great matchup in Atlanta (64 wRC+ vs LHP)
Wei-Yin Chen has been terrible, but still has a respectable 14.5 BB% on the season with a lot of hard contact (37.1%) with a career high 15.1 HR/FB after leaving Baltimore for a better park. The only reason he remains on the board is a matchup with the 2nd worst offense vs LHP (64 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB%, 5.3 HR/FB) tonight and the worst offense at home (72 wRC+, 6.5 HR/FB). That should neutralize some of the hard contact and could make him worthwhile for just under $7K on DraftKings. With a .346 wOBA and 33.2 Hard% against, RHBs for the Braves may have some value tonight, particularly at lower prices on FanDuel. Jeff Francoeur (119 wRC+, .151 ISO vs LHP this season) may work on both sites for $3K or less. Adonis Garcia has not hit LHP well this season (43 wRC+, .033 ISO), but has since last season (102 wRC+, .168 ISO) and costs just $2.6K on FanDuel. Tyler Flowers (89 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) and Chase D'arnaud (98 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) could be interesting punts at Catcher and Second Base tonight.
Target Marlins LH bats against John Gant
John Gant has struggled in his short major league career, especially against LH bats (to the tune of a .359 wOBA). The struggling Giancarlo Stanton gets the day off for the Marlins but the LH bats of Christian Yelich, Justin Bour, and Derek Dietrich are all in play. Ichiro Suzuki is as well, although he's very unlikely to put up a huge day for you - but he is a safe option batting lead off. Adam Conley is in line for a win and has a projected runs allowed of under 3.5 which is always a good indicator in terms of targeting SP. That said, he has allowed a wOBA of over .300 to both sides of the plate. One thing we can be certain of is that he won't allow a HR to a LH hitter as he has yet to do so in his short career (which of course now means Freddie Freeman will hit three today). With many other pitching options out there on this large afternoon slate, there are better places to go, especially on one SP sites. He does make some sense on a two SP site like DraftKings though. Jeff Francoeur is worth a look batting clean up for the Braves as Conley has struggled some against RH power hitters in the past.
Braves have a 61 wRC+ at home, 46 wRC+ (20.0 K-BB%) vs LHP
Adam Morgan has a double digit SwStr% through two starts and dominated AAA after just a 13.9 K% with the Phillies last year and low strikeout rates in the minors previously. While it's still too early to buy into change and he has allowed six runs in nine innings, he throws left-handed and faces the Braves (3.7 HR/FB at home, 20.0 K-BB% & 3.0 HR/FB vs LHP). It's the land of misfit batters in Atlanta and just about any LHP is usable, especially one who has shown some potential at a low price. That said, he's previously been a bad pitcher and has allowed a .348 wOBA to RHBs. Even though Tyler Flowers (94 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) and Jeff Francoeur (81 wRC+ vs LHP) are poor hitters against LHP, they do occupy middle of the lineup spots for less than $3K. This still doesn't make them attractive daily fantasy options, but it's something players needing a punt should know.