Jefry Marte Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Vegas loves the Angels and so do I
The Angels have the highest projected run total on the slate and we have a game at Coors.. The stack will be popular, but I'm not fading it in GPP's . I will have stacks and pieces of this Angels lineup in every lineup I make tonight. Against Holland and a lousy Giants bullpen, the spot is simply too good. Since the start of 2016 everyone in the projected lineup except for Maldanado and Simmons have an ISO over .220 vs southpaws.. And Holland at this point, well, Sucks! Last year Holland allowed a .408 wOBA to righties while allowing 26 home runs in 103.2 innings. I suggest you have 2 to 5 Angels in your GPP lineups tonight.
LAA RHB Have Plenty Of Upside
Erik Skoglund could be the worst pitcher on the slate and this is definitely an arm we want to attack this afternoon. Hitters from both sides of the plate have had plenty of success versus Skoglund in his short Major League career, but we are best to target the Los Angeles Angels right handed hitters in this game. In his 22.2 innings pitched at the Major League level, the Kansas City Royals southpaw has been blasted by righties, allowing .460 wOBA and a 36.6% hard hit rate, while generating as many walks as strikeouts. Skoglund was roughed up in his first start of the 2018 season (4.2 IP, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 ER), and I think we see similar results today at Kauffman Stadium. Albert Pujols is the top value bat to target here, with all three of Jefry Marte, Chris Young and Martin Maldonado also in play (assuming they are in the lineup) at their inexpensive price tags.
Favorite Stack of the Slate
The Angels may have the best offense in baseball right now and I for one will continue riding them.. They are hittting 20 points higher than any other team and these six players have absolutely punished lefties throughout their careers. Since 2016 all of these players have an ISO over .220 vs lefties. It might surprise you that Marte and Cozart top the list at .276 and .275 respectively. I will be playing four and five-man stacks of this bunch and will make sure to have plenty of exposure to each of the big six.
Martin Perez has allowed RHBs a .365 wOBA (.379 xwOBA) since last season
Only the Colorado Rockies have a higher implied run line than the Angels' 5.12 in Texas tonight against Martin Perez. Facing a lineup where the first eight batters are right-handed, Perez is a frequently a gift to daily fantasy players in that park with RHBs hammering him for a .365 wOBA (.379 xwOBA) and 35.4 Hard% since last season. The Angels have three strong hitters against LHP: Mike Trout (151 wRC+, .209 ISO since 2017), Justin Upton (197 wRC+, .372 ISO) and Zack Cozart (167 wRC+, 2.87 ISO), none of whom are very cheap, though the latter two are in an affordable range. The issue is that it quickly goes from feast to famine. Only Andrelton Simmons (102) exceeds even an 85 wRC+ against southpaws since last year among the remaining batters with only Jefry Marte (.176) above a .110 ISO. Simmons, Marte and Albert Pujols (61 wRC+, .084 ISO - YUCK!!) should be batting often in RBI opportunities tonight, unless the big three take care of everything themselves.
The Angels may struggle to take advantage of favorable matchup
The Angels' offense arguably has the best pitching matchup today against Adalberto Mejia. Although we only have small sample size from him this season of 21.1 innings pitched and 95 total batters faced, the Twins' starter has the highest SIERA (5.01) and Contact% (83.0%). He also has a hitter-friendly 41.3% FB% and 12.6% BB% while his 20.0% K% this season is the second-lowest among starters going tonight. He's particularly struggled against RHB (87 total batters faced), who have a .381 wOBA, .277 ISO, and 43.9% FB% this season, although he has limited Hard% to 28.1%. The question is whether Los Angeles has enough firepower without Trout in the lineup. Among the projected starters, all but one guy will bat from the right side tonight and none of them have an ISO above .200 this year. In fact, five of them have ISOs of .085 or under. The three above that range are Jefry Marte (.194 ISO, .301 wOBA, 23.3% Hard%, 23.3% FB%), Martin Maldonado (.172 ISO, .488 wOBA, 37.5% Hard%), and Albert Pujols (.135 ISO, .263 wOBA, 30.0% Hard%, 33.3% FB%). In Maldonado's case, he currently has a .500 BABIP against LHP, indicating some of his numbers are a bit inflated. The Angels have the third-highest projected run total on the slate (4.38) - although, generally speaking, it isn't that high - and clearly have a favorable matchup. However, outside of the three guys mentioned above, it'll be hard to find strong targets to stack on this team and if the other six guys struggle, it would damage the value of Marte, Maldonado, and Pujols, none of whom have put up super strong numbers against LHP to begin with. Another thing to consider is Mejia's average start has lasted 4.2 innings this season and he's only made it past 5.0 once. The Twins bullpen ranks 15th in ISO (.166) and 17th in wOBA (.314) against RHB this year; while they're not strongest bullpen they're close to average.
Sean Manaea has a 13.4 SwStr% over his last 16 starts
Sean Manaea struck out seven Astros through six shutout innings in his last start, throwing 85 pitches in his second start back from injury. He’s up to a 12.1 SwStr% on the season, which would be a top 10 mark among qualified pitchers this year. If we consider just his last 16 starts, it’s 13.4%. Only four major league pitchers have exceeded that mark this season. He’s continuing to have issues with hard contact (35.3% this season). That’s less of an issue in Oakland and also the pitcher friendly park in which he faces the Angels tonight. The biggest issue is that the Angels don’t strike out (16.6% vs LHP). They also lean predominantly right-handed, but most of those RHBs aren’t very good (101 wRC+). Manaea may still have enough upside even with a strikeout reduction to overcome a reasonable cost, especially on FanDuel ($6.8K) in a winnable matchup with Weaver. Mike Trout (173 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is still doing great things if you can afford him. Pujols (115 wRC+, .248 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Escobar (127 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) may also be options for $3.2K or less on FanDuel if not using Manaea, while Jefry Marte (132 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP since 2015) costs $2.9K on either site.
RHBs have a .342 wOBA and 35.1 Hard% vs Fiers since 2015, Angels 16.1 K% vs RHP
RHBs have a .342 wOBA and 35.1 Hard% against Mike Fiers since last season and the Angels have just a 16.1 K% vs RHP, but are projected for just 3.7 runs. What do players do here? The answer may be, play Trout (171 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who may be today's top overall bat, but also that no other Angels bat costs more than $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel. They may provide some value. C.J. Cron (129 wRC+, .206 ISO) is the next best bat vs RHP, but Pujols (102 wRC+, .168 ISO) and Jefry Marte (100 wRC+, .195 ISO) may also be viable, though not top plays at their position. The drop off may be too much after that.
Angels implied run total (4.9) has increased nearly a full run since it opened at 4.2 runs
Derek Holland has not been good against right-handed batters with a 13.3% strikeout rate and 43.8% fly balls. Though he’s tough to fit in lineups, Mike Trout (153 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .189 ISO vs LHP) is one of the top plays of the night, and Albert Pujols (129 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .250 ISO vs LHP) is a tournament target as well. The Angels lineup is not exciting beyond those guys, but Yunel Escobar (140 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .157 ISO vs LHP) is a very solid leadoff hitter and this is one of the lineups you can look for a pure punt play to fill out tour cash game rosters with a bottom of the order hitter. Gregorio Petit and Andrelton Simmons (cheap on FanDuel) are not great hitters, but in a matchup like this, we could see production from all over the lineup. Jefry Marte (129 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .222 ISO vs LHP) also has some power potential and should be included in Angels stacks.
Martin Perez and his 1.9% K-BB% provide an excellent matchup for Angels RHB
Martin Perez and his 12.3% strikeout rate will be on the mound as the Rangers are set to take the Angels tonight, and the only positive thing about Perez is that he has a 52.9% ground ball rate. This allows Perez to get out of some self-created jams and makes it hard to stack against him. He is very good against left-handed batters, but he has allowed a 32.9% hard hit rate and a .337 wOBA to right-handed batters, while his ground ball rate dips by just a few percentage points. Don’t sleep on Yunel Escobar (136 wRC+, .368 wOBA vs LHP), Mike Trout (149 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .178 ISO vs LHP), Albert Pujols (132 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .258 ISO vs LHP), Jefry Marte (130 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .235 ISO) and C.J. Cron (.155 ISO vs LHP) as a sneaky little stack on the other side of this high total game.
Ariel Miranda has allowed a 38.0 Hard% to batters from either side this year
Ariel Miranda hasn't particularly gotten bombed in any one start, but has allowed at least three runs in all but two outings with just an 8.0 K-BB% and a 38% hard hit rate by batters from either side. The Angels stack up right-handed, as they normally do, with Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .243 vs LHP since 2015) the top bat, but also the most expensive, by far. Yunel Escobar (130 wRC+) and Jefry Marte (145 wRC+, .286 ISO) both stack up well against LHP since last year as well, while Pujols (116 wRC+, .252 ISO) still shows us some power. While there is some value in an Angels stack here, none of these bats are particularly cheap in a negative run environment. Escobar may provide the best value for $3K on FanDuel.