Jerad Eickhoff Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Jared Eickhoff has enjoyed a great start to 2019, posting a 2.12 ERA / 3.39 xFIP with a 23.1 K-BB% and just a .190 xwOBA which is in the top 1% of the league. Eickhoff seems to have ditched his sinker, which was his worst pitch back in 2017 during his last full season. He’s throwing a new four-seamer that actually has shown slightly decreased velocity, but a much-improved spin rate (2399 RPM this year, 2224 RPM in ’17). The new four seamer has a Whiff% that has increased 3 points and a Put Away% that has increased 20 percentage points compared to 2017. Eickhoff has also shown vastly improved spin rate on his curve (227 RPM increase) and his slider (287 RMP increase) which has led to an xwOBA allowed under .150 for both pitches. Eickhoff is just $7.4k on Draftkings tonight ($8.6k on Fanduel) and is facing the Nats at home, who have a watered-down lineup without Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman. They could also potentially be without Juan Soto as he was scratched yesterday with back spasms. The Nationals as a team have just a 91 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs. RHP on the year, and currently have a 3.98 implied line vs. Eickhoff and the Phillies. Eickhoff will have a good shot at getting a W as the Phillies are currently -175 to win Friday night.

Jerad Eickhoff struggled in Colorado, but looked good in Miami. He’s impressed overall with a 30.8 K%, 13.1 SwStr%, and 72.7 Z-Contact%. He’s yet to allow a Barrel with an 85.6 mph aEV, leading to a .190 xwOBA. The Nationals have just a 91 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs RHP. Eickhoff appears to be elevating his four-seamer more and, subsequently, both his curve and slider are above a 40% whiff rate according to Statcast, while he’s apparently ditched a useless sinker. He’s had a double digit SwStr% in all three outings this year. These are just some small sample results, but he costs a reasonable $7.4K on DraftKings against an offense that’s been struggling without all of their top bats healthy.

Jason Vargas has had some success as a low strikeout, extreme fly ball pitcher due to a big park, great outfield defense and lots of weak contact. He has an ERA above seven over his last seven starts because one of those things has gone away. He's allowed 10 HRs over that span with a 44.5% hard hit rate. Cleveland bats with power should be closely looked at tonight. Jake Odorizzi matches that hard hit rate (45.6%), only RHBs for the entire year with 17 of his 25 HRs allowed. Unfortunately, Tommy Pham is not in the St Louis lineup tonight, but some Paul DeJong (130 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP) exposure may be mandatory. Some other pitchers who have allowed too much hard contact include Parker Bridwell who's 88.4 mph aEV and 39.7% 95+ mph EV are both among the worst rates on the board with a 23.3 LD% to match. He has a 2.92 ERA due to an 83.8 LOB%. Kendall Graveman's 89 mph aEV and 41.6 95+ mph EV are both highest on the board. Jerad Eickhoff has a 35.3 GB% over his last seven starts with a hard hit rate above 33% in six of them. Ariel Miranda has allowed a league leading 31 HRs this year and his 9.0% Barrels/BBE is the second worst mark on the board. His opponent, the Yankees are second in sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers (114). Jeremy Hellickson allowed five HRs in his last start and has a hard hit rate above 40% in five of his last seven starts without a ground ball rate exceeding 40% in any of those starts. Premium subscribers have access to the daily Trendspotting article, which matches batters making the hardest contact with pitchers allowing it each day and it favors some Boston batters tonight against a pitcher allowing nearly 10% Value Hits to LHBs this year. LHBs have a 13.6 GB% and 42.5 Hard% over that span. Robert Stephenson has the only double digit barrel rate on the board (11.6% of BBEs). Premium subscribers have access to the daily Trendspotting article, which matches batters making the hardest contact with pitchers allowing it each day.

Charlie Blackmon is currently projected to be in somewhere around a quarter of all lineups despite his high cost without a high priced favorite on any mound tonight and his team projected for a slate high 6.31 runs at Coors. Even Carlos Gonzalez is expected to be well represented against a fly ball generators who has struggled against LH power (Julio Teheran). Players with high projected fantasy point totals, who may go overlooked tonight include Paul Goldschmidt and Michael Conforto. There are plenty of bats in great spots tonight. Jose Quintana could be the most popular pitcher at a reasonable cost on FanDuel, but is $3.2K more expensive on DraftKings, where Kevin Gausman (29.8 K% last 11 starts) and Jerad Eickhoff (San Diego 25.3 K% vs RHP) could find themselves in the most lineups than other pitchers, each costing less than $9K. Players looking for a cheap, speculative arm with low ownership could consider Jakob Junis. He struck out seven in eight innnings of work last time out and had a 29.9 K% at AAA this season. Projected ownership rates are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.

There are three pitchers who exceed a 25 K% tonight. One (Asher Wojciechowski 25.3 K%) has just six starts and over one-third of his innings out of the bullpen. Another (Jose Quintana 25.4 K%) has just an 8.5 SwStr% and has a 25.7 Hard-Soft% since the All-Star break and six HRs allowed over his last four starts. He's still tonight's top projected pitcher via the RotoGrinders Player Projections, but costs $11.6K on DraftKings ($3.2K less on FanDuel). The other (Zack Greinke 28.1 K%) has allowed nine ERs and three HRs over his last 12.2 innings and only hosts the Houston Astros (129 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP this year) in Arizona. Greinke has, at least, struck out at 25 of his last 78 batters and is the only pitcher the Daily K Predictor projects above six strikeouts (6.56). Another potential top pitcher (Michael Fulmer) returns from a two week DL stint with an elbow issue to face the heat in Texas, where the the Rangers have a 17 HR/FB at home and vs RHP. The pitching options are far from ideal on tonight's slate, but the daily fantasy sites still mandate that players must select at least or even even two, so the cards that have been dealt will have to be played. There are a few pitchers who are at least in interesting spots tonight. The Padres strike out in a quarter of PAs at home and vs RHP. Jerad Eickhoff is a fairly average arm (20.5 K%, 4.45 ERA, 4.65 SIERA), but average in a great spot may be as good as gold tonight. Jackob Junis has just a 19.1 K% and 4.71 ERA (4.78 SIERA) in 44 innings this season. However, he is coming off the best start of his career (8 IP - 1 ER - 0 BB - 7 K) and has struck out 30% of AAA batters in 71 innings this season. The A's have struck out in a quarter of PAs at home and vs RHP as well. The Rays have an absurd 37.6 K% over the last week, which could make anybody playable, though maybe still not Nick Tepesch. Something nobody could have seen coming two months ago though, Kevin Gausman has a 29.8 K% over his last 11 starts. He has still allowed nine HRs over that span and four runs or more four times, but one run or less six times over that span and is one of the few pitchers who can combine that kind of upside with a favorable park in Seattle tonight.

Bronson Arroyo is the predominant fly ball pitcher on today's slate (30.7 GB%) and Petco will be a real challenge to his 20 HRs allowed and at least one in all but one start. His 7.9% Barrels/PA is highest on the board, but could this be his second outing without allowing a HR? The Padres have an 81 wRC+ at home and 82 wRC+ vs RHP, though average HR rates. However, against fly ball pitchers, they have the second lowest sOPS+ (78) in baseball. Jerad Eickhoff is a fly ball pitcher as well (39.2 GB%) and Boston has the highest run line on the board, but have hit the second fewest HRs against fly ball pitchers (19 with a 102 sOPS+), while Eickhoff has allowed a modest eight HRs (10.0 HR/FB) this year. Yu Darvish (38.1 GB%) is the third pitcher on the slate with a GB rate below 40% both this season and over the last two calendar years. He's looked better in recent starts (17 Ks last two), but the Astros have the fourth best sOPS+ (113) with the second most HRs (49) along with being beastly at home (16.0 HR/FB) and vs RHP (122 wRC+) this year.

The Boston Red Sox are expected to absolutely pummel Jerad Eickhoff with an implied run line of 6.69, more than a run higher than the next best team. Eickhoff has allowed at least three runs in eight straight starts, but no more than five with peripherals in the mid-fours with a nearly league average strikeout rate and fairly standard contact authority (30.5 Hard%, 88.4 mph aEV, 6.7% Barrels/BBE). He's a fly ball pitcher (39.9 GB% career), which is a danger in Fenway park, but it's not like the Red Sox have been killing it this year (93 wRC+ at home, 95 wRC+ vs RHP). With stark platoon splits (RHBs .281 wOBA, LHBs .351 wOBA since 2016), your LH Boston bats are coveted players tonight, but Vegas seems a tad optimistic here. Six other offenses (Washington, Minnesota, Baltimore, Seattle, Chicago (AL), and Pittsburgh are also projected for 4.8 runs or higher before there's about a quarter of a run drop-off to the rest of the field. Some of those offenses on the latter end may be a surprise, but the White Sox have been an elite offense vs LHP (121 wRC+). However, both Wade Miley (55.4 GB%) and Kyle Freeland (57.5 GB%) have strong ground ball leans and may not be ideal pitchers to pick on (ground balls generally don't leave the yard). The two top overall offenses, the Yankees (128 wRC+ vs RHP) and Astros (122 wRC+), have not even been covered yet, in more difficult spots (Yankees in LA, Astros facing Yu Darvish). Despite the Vegas run lines, there does not appear to be a dominant stack tonight though several offenses may offer strong two or three batter mini-stacks, leading to diverse batter ownership tonight. Pitching may be another story with Stephen Strasburg the clear top overall arm, though both Jacob deGrom and Yu Darvish certainly have the potential to dominate any lineup on any given night.

Paul Goldschmidt is the only batter with more than one HR and a 92.5 mph aEV against the pitcher he is facing tonight. His two HRs against Luis Perdomo come in 11 PAs. He's put the ball in play 10 times with a 97.4 mph aEV, adding a double. Considering that Goldschmidt only hits the ball in the air 31.2% of the time against RHP and Perdomo has a 68.3 GB% against RHP, the results are a bit of a surprise and we might be expecting some hard ground balls in future matchups. Among batters with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight's opponent, Nick Markakis has a 95.7 mph aEV (12 BBEs) against Jared Eickhoff, but not a single extra-base hit in 19 PAs. Brett Gardner has a 93.7 mph aEV (15 BBEs) against Rick Porcello with a HR and four extra-base hits in 41 PAs.