Jharel Cotton Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Tonight's slate does not offer very many attractive stacking opportunities, but what it does offer is a lot of HR potential. Several of tonight's pitchers are either extreme fly ball generators, home run prone or both. Even Clayton Kershaw has allowed 20 HRs this seaon. In fact, among pitchers with at least 17 starts, only Luis Perdomo (17), Jaime Garcia (17) and Jameson Taillon (9) have failed to allow at least 20 HRs. Even among those three, Garcia struggled mightily with HRs in the past and pitches at Yankee Stadium (though his tendency for shorter outings backed by a monster bullpen may steer players away from opposing bats) while Paul Goldschmidt (3 HRs, 19 PAs) and J.D. Martinez (2 HRs, 6 PAs) have hammered Perdomo, a pitcher who generally grounds RHBs (67.8 GB% this year). The profitable approach to this slate may be in HR hunting rather than stacking a particular lineup. RHBs alone have a .415 wOBA and 18 HRs against Nick Pivetta (which may be where one of the better stacking opportunities lies if the Dodgers choose to load up that way). Dan Straily doesn't allow a ton of particularly hard contact (25% last six starts), but has allowed nine HRs over that span due to a 49.5% fly ball rate. Jharel Cotton has allowed a league average hard contact rate (31%) over his last seven or 18 starts, yet he has allowed 13 and 27 HRs over those two spans. Ervin Santana has allowed 29 HRs in 30 starts, 27 over his last 24 and has a .308 BABIP with a 4.34 ERA and 18 HRs over his last 17. The most interesting hitter on the slate may be Rhys Hoskins (217 wRC+, .643 ISO, 50 Hard%, 59.1 FB%, 40 PAs vs LHP). Sure, the sample is still very small, but he's done nearly a season's worth of damage already. Rostering batters facing Kershaw is not usually a recommended practice, but depending upon projected ownership, this could be one of those rare situations where it might be profitable. The aforementioned 20 HRs he's allowed are a career high by 25% (previous high was 16) with 14 of those being surrendered to RHBs.

Five of 24 teams are projected between 5.21 and 5.81 runs tonight with three between 4.89 and 4.95 runs with Boston at the top of the pile against Jharel Cotton, who has the odd distinction of strong looking Statcast exit velocity numbers (86 mph aEV, 30.3% 95+ mph EV), but lots of HRs (26 over his last 17 starts). He's allowed six in just the last two, but with a hard hit rate above 40% each time. The Red Sox don't strike out a lot, but don't hit for power either (9.6 HR/FB at home, 11.3 HR/FB vs RHP). Cotton has no real split with batters from either side above a .350 wOBA, below a 40 GB% and right around a league average hard hit rate. Among projected starters, Mitch Moreland is the only one who combines an above average wRC+ (101) with an ISO above .200 (.201) against RHP this year and just barely. Mookie Betts (98 wRC+, .185 ISO, 35.5 Hard%, 43.3 FB% vs RHP) and Dustin Pedroia (105 wRC+, .101 ISO vs RHP) each have a wRC+ above 240 over the last week, though Betts (53.3%) crushes Pedroia (18.2%) in hard hit rate. Rafael Devers (96 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP) has shown some power as well. Seattle (5.57) is the only other team currently above five and a half runs. They face Martin Perez in Texas, which seems like an ideal spot, but Perez has a 51.3 GB% with a 24.2 Hard% over his last seven starts. RHBs have a .359 wOBA and 34.9 Hard% against him this season, but just a .308 wOBA with two HRs, a 53.3 GB% and 24.8 Hard% over this span. Nelson Cruz has crushed Perez in 21 PAs (.607 wOBA, three HRs, 104.7 mph aEV) and is certainly a top bat (126 wRC+, .172 ISO, 42.7 Hard% vs LHP), while Mitch Haniger (126 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP, 291 wRC last seven days) and Mike Zunino (122 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP) are interesting as well, but players may want to be more cautious when considering an all out assault on Perez, who has been managing contact well.

There are nine pitchers on tonight's slate with an average exit velocity below 86 mph this year. Among those, Jimmy Nelson (85.2 mph) has allowed the lowest rate of barrels per batted ball (3.9%). Trevor Williams has a well below average strikeout rate (17.3%) and both an ERA (4.14) and SIERA (4.70) above four, but estimators don't take into account the contact authority and he seems to be one of the best in the league at generating weak contact. His 84.9 mph aEV and 28.8% 95+ mph EV both lead the slate. Jharel Cotton (85.7 mph, 29.5%) is the only other pitcher on the board with a 95+ mph EV below 30%, though he's still allowed 23 HRs over his last 16 starts. Along the same lines, Ervin Santana has an 85.4 mph aEV and 30.7% 95+ mph EV, but has allowed 26 HRs over his last 22 starts. Max Scherzer (85.8 mph), Luke Weaver (85.8 mph) and Yu Darvish (85.6 mph) are all among the top average exit velocities tonight. Like Williams, Jose Urena is another pitcher with a low strikeout rate (16.1%) with a low aEV (85.4 mph) and 95+ mph EV (30.1%).

Jacob Faria, Kyle Freeland and Jharel Cotton are three rookie pitchers with some interesting platoon splits. Freeland may be the one players are most interested in attacking at Coors with a 14.5 K%. Batted balls in Colorado are generally a good thing. However, he has a 56 GB% with an 84.6 GB%. Weak ground balls aren't a good thing anywhere. Look at his splits though and despite a natural 29 point wOBA split in favor of RHBs (.333 to .304), it may be LHBs players want to play tonight. RHBs have 60.5 GB% and 28.7 Hard%, while LHBs have a 36.1 GB% and 32.9 Hard%. Jacob Faria is another pitcher with some strange splits. As one would expect, he has a much better K-BB vs RHBs, but the difference is 20.9% vs -1.3% against LHBs. And it's actually LHBs that have the lower wOBA (.246 to .298). That's because when LHBs do make contact, they have a 56.3 GB% and -4.1 Hard-Soft%. When RHBs make contact, they only put it on the ground 31.1% of the time with a 34.2 Hard%. It's difficult to figure out how to handle him from just that information alone. Jharel Cotton, like Faria, blasted through AAA with a 30+ K% that hasn't quite translated to the majors. An elite changeup was expected to be his signature pitch. To some extent, that remains true. While it would be difficult to tell from his overall splits (LHBs .352 wOBA, seven HRs - RHBs .350 wOBA, eight HRs), the peripherals and contact profile are vastly different. While LHBs have just a 3.3 K-BB%, the changeup has helped him effectively manage contact (-6.0 Hard-Soft%). RHBs have a 14.9 K-BB%, but with a 21.6 Hard-Soft%. His ground ball rate is below 40% either way. This information may not be of much use in as an approach against him tonight because analysis on the Angels usually starts and ends with "play Mike Trout", though a RHB who has shown some power this year, like Andrelton Simmons (129 wRC+, .166 ISO vs RHP), could be of use.

There are no surprises for the RotoGrinders K Predictor tonight. Danny Salazar is projected for the most strikeouts (8.81) as only 29 of the 49 batters he's faced have failed to strike out this year. John Lackey (8.76) is a close second against the strikeout prone Brewers (26.7 K% vs RHP). Robbie Ray (6.91) trails them by a couple. No other pitcher is predicted for more than five strikeouts. Jharel Cotton is next at 4.47. He has a live arm with a superior changeup and faces a Texas lineup that fans at about an average pace. It might be difficult to cover his $8.2K cost on DraftKings if he doesn't get at least five Ks though.

Jharel Cotton and the Oakland Athletics visit Ian Kennedy and the Kansas City Royals in a game that has a Vegas total of 8 1/2 runs. Both Cotton and Kennedy have some potential as pitchers on this small four game slate as Cotton has K upside and Kennedy faces a struggling A's offense in a pitcher-friendly park. For the A's, Matt Joyce, Ryon Healy, and Khris Davis are the top hitters to target (they bat two through four in the lineup today) with Joyce the top option. Mike Moustakas headlines the Royals lineup and is a elite option (.292 ISO against RHP) while Eric Hosmer and Brandon Moss are also worth considering for your DFS lineups.

Trea Turner and Bryce Harper are the only hitters projected for ownership rates north of 20% on either site tonight (DraftKings). On the pitching side, Chris Sale has favorable conditions in chilly Boston with a current ownership projection rate of 17.5% or less on either site. Perhaps paying up may be a way to lean more contrarian tonight. On the low end, consider Jharel Cotton, who costs just $6.7K on Fanduel and may be claimed in fewer than 5% of lineups. Steven Souza has some great numbers against Pineda (four HRs, 97.5 mph aEV on 13 batted balls) and is projected for very low ownership on DraftKIngs tonight. You can see all of the Projected Ownership numbers with a Premium Membership.

Tonight's slate is front loaded by top names like Sale, deGrom and Hill. While all three project potentially as strong as their price tag or better, perhaps you need an SP2 or would rather opt to spend on offense. The good news is that there are several cheaper pitchers with upside beyond their price tag as well. James Paxton had a small breakout in his strikeout rate (22.9%) last year and only Syndergaard through harder among starters, but he did have occasional contact issues and pitches against a powerful RH lineup in Houston. He costs $7.7K or less on either site. Jharel Cotton struck out 29.5% at AAA last year and 20.5% in a short major league stint. He has a wicked changeup and costs just $6.7K on FanDuel. The catch is that the Angels struck out just 16% of the time last season.Charlie Morton threw only 17.1 innings for the Phillies last year, but with increased velocity and striking out 26.8% of the batters he faced. This spring, he looked to have maintained that velocity and possibly even increased it. The Mariners have some pop in the middle of the order, but he costs just over $6K on either site. One last name to consider might be Wily Peralta. After missing the entire month of July, he returned to post an 11.0 SwStr% (20.3 K%) with a 2.92 ERA (estimators a bit higher, but below four) in 10 starts with increased velocity. He costs just $5.1K on DraftKings.