Jhoulys Chacin Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Surprisingly, Jhoulys Chacin has a 6.2% Barrels/BBE rate that’s top 20% of the board tonight, yet he owns just a 7.7 K-BB% with a 35 GB% and 40.9% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. He’s allowed 15 HRs in 15 starts. How he’s kept his Barrel rate so low is a complete mystery, but with a 5.42 ERA, 6.96 DRA and .354 xwOBA, he’s exactly the kind of pitcher players want to attack in a power friendly park tonight. Never mind five runs, there are four teams above six implied runs on this slate, which puts the Reds at 4.94 just near the middle of this board. While Chacin had a substantial platoon split last season and really for his career, RHBs have joined LHBs in pounding him this year for a .356 wOBA and 10 of his 15 HRs allowed in just 43 more PAs. That said, expect the Reds to line up LH heavy toward the top with Jesse Winker (139 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Joey Votto (110 wRC+, .157 ISO), Scooter Gennett (125 wRC+, .207 ISO), and Derek Dietrich (118 wRC+, .244 ISO) all projecting well, along with Eugenio Suarez (101 wRC+, .220 ISO) from the right-hand side, who owns a 211 wRC+ and 57.9 Hard% over the last week.

The two highest xwOBAs on the board over the last month are Chris Archer (.402) and Jhoulys Chacin (.399). As luck would have it, they are pitching against each other in a positive run environment in Milwaukee tonight. The Brewers own the highest implied run line outside Coors tonight (6.07) and need no further endorsement, but coming off a drubbing of the Astros the last couple of days, the Pirates are projected pretty strongly at 4.93 runs as well. Chacin has normally exhibited a large platoon split, but this year, RHBs are hammering him for a .363 wOBA with nine HRs. The two most interesting bats in the Pittsburgh lineup reside on the left-hand side though. Josh Bell (158 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is continuing on his breakout pace this year, while Bryan Reynolds (154 wRC+, .180 ISO) is having a fantastic rookie year. Corey Dickerson (138 wRC+, .257 ISO) is helping to drive this offense recently as well with a 245 wRC+ over the last week.

After posting a solid 3.50 ERA in 2018, Chacin has heavily regressed with a 5.60 ERA, 5.62 xFIP and 5.50 SIERA with a 6.7% K-BB in 2019. Chacin has just a 7.3% SwStr, a 34.4% GB rate and 43.6% hard contact rate with a .352 xwOBA allowed. His last start came on 6/17 after a short stint on the DL with a back issue; he allowed 9 baserunners (6 hits, 3 walks) in just 4 2/3 innings in a matchup with the Padres in San Diego. Chacin has long been more vulnerable vs. lefties; he’s allowed a .358 xwOBA to lefties since 2017, compared to a .287 xwOBA vs. righties. Derek Dietrich (.399 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jesse Winker (.355), Joey Votto (.329) and Tucker Barnhart (.273) are all left-handed bats that are intriguing plays vs. Chacin in Miller Park this afternoon. Eugenio Suarez (111 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018) and Yasiel Puig (117 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018) are also good plays given the matchup and environment. The Reds have a 4.16 implied line vs. Chacin, which feels low and might help them fly a bit under the radar this afternoon.

The Dodgers are once again in play today vs. Jhoulys Chacin in Dodger stadium. Chacin has a .335 xwOBA allowed in away games since 2015 compared to a .307 xwOBA in home games. He’s also much worse vs. LHB (.354 xwOBA vs. LHB, .291 xwOBA vs. RHB) over that same span. Thus, there are plenty of Dodger bats in play. Cody Bellinger stayed hot with another HR last night an is up to a .566 xwOBA on the year. Corey Seager, Joc Pederson and Max Muncy should all be in the Dodgers’ lineup this afternoon and are always good bets for production vs. RHP. A.J. Pollock has started somewhat slow, but can be had at a discount at just $3.8k on DK.

Another stack option for the late slate are the D-Backs at home vs. Eric Lauer. Lauer hasn’t shown much to suggest he’s a good MLB pitcher. He has pretty even platoon splits and has given up a .332 xwOBA and a 1.26 HR/9 over 129 innings in his career. The D-Backs have plenty of good options at reasonable prices in their projected lineup. Eduardo Escobar leads the team with a .397 xwOBA over the last 7 days. Wilmer Flores (.231) has been struggling but is discounted and has been solid in his career vs. LHP with a 107 wRC+. Adam Jones has seen a resurgence this year with a 157 wRC+ and projects to lead off.

Today is the best day of the post-season for MLB DFS, as it's the only day players are guaranteed four games. It's not surprising that it's a pitcher friendly slate (no team above 4.5 implied runs), but not a single pitcher exceeds $10K on DraftKings, though three are above $10K on FanDuel. Both Corey Kluber (35.3 K%, 2.56 SIERA, .262 xwOBA last 30 days) and Justin Verlander (41.7 K%, 1.92 SIERA, .209 xwOBA last 30 days) finished the season with a flourish and are pitching in one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. The case against them is that both the Astros (19.2%) and Indians (18.8%) have two of the lowest strikeout rates in the league against RHP. Chris Sale (38.4 K%, 2.27 SIERA, .240 xwOBA this season) is the other high priced pitcher today and he comes with some concerns, mostly a significant velocity drop in his last start, though he did reach 92 pitches, his most since returning from the DL. He also has to contend with the Yankees (115 wRC+, 18.4 HR/FB vs LHP) in the most positive run environment on the board, though temperatures are expected to be in the 50s with the Yankees implied for just 3.2 runs. All of these factors combine to make Sale an interesting GPP option. J.A. Happ (26.3 K%, 3.64 SIERA, .315 xwOBA) will be receiving the same weather neutralizing benefit and costs less against an offense less potent against LHP (92 wRC+) and respectably struck out 13 of 49 Red Sox, allowing four ERs in 12 IP as a Yankee. Clayton Kershaw (23.9 K%, 3.45 SIERA, .291 xwOBA) faces a contact prone Atlanta offense (107 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs LHP), though they were shut down by another southpaw last night. While Anibal Sanchez (24.4 K%, 3.85 SIERA, .285 xwOBA) and Tyler Anderson (22.3 K%, 4.22 SIERA, .308 xwOBA) are both fine pitchers at a lower cost, both are facing difficult offenses (Dodgers 116 wRC+ vs RHP, Brewers 15.8 HR/FB vs LHP) with potentially quicker hooks as their teams each trail in their series. Jhoulys Chacin (19.6 K%, 4.59 SIERA, .331 xwOBA) is the worst pitcher on the board by most metrics, but also someone players may want to look at in their SP2 spot on DraftKings ($5.2K). He pitched great in Chicago and the Rockies struggle against RHP (82 wRC+) and on the road (78 wRC+). Additionally, the Milwaukee bullpen was worn out last night, while owning the lead in the series may give him a bit longer leash.

Monday afternoon's two game MLB slate offers some interesting choices. The early game features two pitchers with some large platoon splits (LHBs have a .341 wOBA vs Jhoulys Chacin, while RHBs have a .326 wOBA vs Carlos Quintana). Both offenses have the personnel to do some damage to either pitcher. The late game features two pitchers who have had major breakouts in the second half of 2018. Walker Buehler had a 2.21 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 24 K-BB% and .235 wOBA in the second half. German Marquez had a 2.55 ERA, 2.04 FIP, 28.2 K-BB% and 2.54 wOBA in the second half. That last number is incredibly impressive considering he pitches a lot of his games at Coors. The difference here is that German will be facing an offense with a 110 wRC+ at home and 116 wRC+ vs RHP, while Beuhler will be facing one with a 78 wRC+ on the road and 82 wRC+ vs RHP. Theoretically, it is possible to fit both players in your DraftKings lineup at a combined cost of $19.6K with some room left over to take advantage of key bats at Wrigley. A Buehler/Chacin combination would cost $15.5K. On FanDuel, it's probably preferable to side with on of the pitchers in LA, who are separated by just $200.

The tendency of more teams to shorten the outing lengths of their starters and throw more innings out of their bullpens with expanded rosters in September makes it difficult to find value in daily fantasy pitchers in the mid and lower tiers at this point in the season. There may be a few pitchers on tonight's slate that merit attention though. Shane Bieber (23.5 K%, 3.52 SIERA, .331 xwOBA) costs less than $9K in a high upside matchup with the White Sox (93 wRC+, 18.9 K-BB%). The Indians aren't playing for anything, but Bieber is not going to be starting front end games for Cleveland and shouldn't be limited tonight. Andrew Heaney (23.6 K%, 3.79 SIERA, .326 xwOBA) is coming off a rough start in Houston, but gets the Rangers (83 wRC+ on the road, 87 wRC+ vs LHP) at home tonight for $8.5K or less. Jhoulys Chacin (19.7 K%, 4.55 SIERA, .329 xwOBA) has struggled in two of his three starts against the Cardinals this year, but does have a large platoon split (RHBs .240) and is facing a predominantly RH lineup with a park upgrade for just $7K.

Jhoulys Chacin can be a competent pitcher, but he has a large platoon split (LHBs .333 wOBA, 38.7 Hard%) in a dangerous park. Considering the four LHBs in the top two-thirds of this lineup are all above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP this and Ben Zobrist has the lowest ISO at .176, the Cubs are an offense that should be able to take advantage of these splits from a daily fantasy perspective despite the modest 4.42 implied run line. Anthony Rizzo (128 wRC+, .230 ISO) is the top overall and most expensive bat. Daniel Murphy (130 wRC+, .191 ISO) is a bit more affordable atop the lineup.