Joaquin Niemann Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

These price tags feel a bit too light on Niemann. He generally prefers putting on bentgrass greens, which we have here at Shadow Creek. He grades out slightly above field average statistically in ball striking and birdie or better percentage, and Niemann is another golfer who tends to get hot in stretches. He has started the fall swing with a solid 23rd place finish at the U.S. Open and a 13th place finish last week, and he gained more than three strokes off the tee at TPC Summerlin. Niemann is trending in the right direction, and it won’t be long before he is priced well above this mark. I like him as a sleeper for an outright bet as well at 66-to-1 odds on DK Sportsbook.

I was not high on Niemann all that much heading into last week, but he proved me wrong with a huge week that allowed him to sneak inside the top 30. He’s effectively playing with house money here, and I expect Niemann to be very aggressive all week. That should lean to more birdie chances than the average member of the field, and Niemann is priced near the bottom of the barrel on every site. He is solid if unspectacular across the board statistically, but he has proven that he can score in bunches when he gets it rolling. He should be full of confidence after last week’s third place finish, and Niemann is a rock solid value here.

Niemann is another young phenom that is looking for his first win on the PGA Tour. He was the number one amateur coming out of college and made some noise right away last summer. He struggled with his game in the spring, but has clearly fixed whatever was ailing him. If we throw out the missed cut at The Open (he was a late add and has very little links experience), he has made 10 straight cuts with two top fives and no finish worse than T31. He’s ranked in the top 10 in this field in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, and birdie or better percentage. Bentgrass is by far his best putting surface and that’s what is featured on the greens here at the Old White TPC. He has already played here two times, posting finishes of T29 and T5. He basically checks all of the boxes this week — form, talent, course fit, and course history.

This is one of those events where you expect a young golfer to get a breakthrough win or a veteran golfer to pick up a win that helps revive his career. We haven't seen many elites win here and it's worth noting that we don't have any in the field this week anyway. Niemann is my favorite of the young phenoms this week. You certainly can't go wrong with Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, or Matthew Wolff, but Niemann's game has been trending in the right direction over the last few months. He has gained strokes off the tee, on approach, and around the greens in five straight events. He's not known as a good putter, but he prefers bentgrass and actually gains strokes on the field if you look at that specific putting split. His last three events on tour are T23, T5, and T5. Of the four young guys that I've mentioned, Niemann is the only one that has seen the course before. He played here last season and posted a respectable T23 finish. Niemann is a strong DraftKings play and he actually made the betting card this week at 25/1.

The tools have always been there with Niemann. It was the flat stick that was holding him back, and he went through such a rough patch with the putter in the winter and spring that it started to affect other areas of his game. Those concerns are now a thing of the past. He has a new putting routine that has absolutely helped him out, and he has been well above field average with the putter in his last handful of events. It’s no coincidence that he has turned his last two appearances into a pair of T5 finishes. He currently ranks 31st in par four scoring, 36th in ball striking, and 29th in strokes gained approach. Ride the wave of confidence as long as Niemann can keep it rolling on the greens. If he can keep doing that, a win is undoubtedly in his near future.

We are back on the Niemann train. Yes, after a terrible start to the season he has finally crossed my model’s threshold where it lets me play him again. With 3 straight made cuts, and his game back in order from what we saw last summer, Niemann should have another good week. He has gained strokes Ball Striking for each of those 3 events, improving to +4.4 SG:BS at the Canadian Open. He has never played this event, but stats align with what is needed here.

Along with Luke List, here is Exhibit #2 of 2 on players who let people down last week, and it’s even more mouth-watering with Niemann. The stars are aligning after his relative disappointment a week ago. He won’t be nearly as highly owned as he was for the Desert Classic, especially since the masses will look and see that he has no PGA Tour course history at this event. However, Niemann just happened to win the Junior World Championships here in both 2016 and 2017, so he’s no stranger to Torrey Pines. He’s on record that he obviously likes the course, and he is a fantastic play at his current DFS price tags, which are much cheaper than we have seen for him recently. This is a great spot to buy low on a golfer who still ranks around the top 50 in driving distance and ball striking despite a relatively underwhelming fall swing. Don’t be surprised if he’s a sneaky contender come Sunday.

Right when the salaries came out, I had no interest in Niemann. He really had a disappointing finish to 2018, but after a deeper dive into his statistics, I’m back on board. He’s gained strokes tee to green in 14 of his last 15 events on tour. His biggest weaknesses are around the green and putting. Scrambling is extremely easy on these three resort courses. In fact, the winners over the last few years have actually lost strokes around the green on average. As long as he has a decent putting week, he should easily be able to outperform his price point. I’m expecting a win for Niemann at some point this season, so he’ll be a regular feature in this article.