Joe Mauer Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Numbers against RHBs make this lineup usable
The Twins have a 4.76 implied run line at home against Francisco Liriano despite only three batters in the lineup above a .320 xwOBA against LHP this season. One of them is Joe Mauer (102 wRC+, .082 ISO vs LHP), another is Willians Astudillo, who has less than 30 PAs vs LHP, the other is Tyler Austin (126 wRC+, .310 ISO). Austin is also the only one of the first six batters in the order above a .151 ISO vs LHP this year too. How is this possible? Consider Francisco Liriano's .358 wOBA against RHBs, which makes the top two thirds of the Minnesota offense likely all playable tonight. Players are attacking the pitcher here despite the lack of potency in this lineup.
Not an Exciting Offense, But a Great Matchup for Low-Owned Goodness
The Twins are never an exciting team to stack. Their overall offensive numbers for the year are underwhelming. That's the bad news. The good news is that this means we can almost always get them at low ownership, they are better against RHP, and they are facing a weak RHP tonight in Adam Plutko. The Cleveland right-hander has underwhelming stuff and a SIERA and xFIP over 5.00 for the year. The Twins also carry a little more danger in their lineup with the boom/bust power bat of Miguel Sano back in the mix. Eddie Rosario has the best overall numbers against RHP this year and would be my first overall target, while you can add the likes of Mauer or Polanco to your GPP stacks. Don't sleep on the Twins this evening.
Better recently, but LHBs still crush him
The Twins have an enormous 5.32 run line against Lucas Giolito that's second highest on the board tonight. Giolito has struck out 20 of his last 77 batters and has just a .326 xwOBA over the last month, but going by his full season numbers, LHBs have thrashed him for a .374 wOBA with an xwOBA 32 points higher, while RHBs have been about league average against him (.324). Some attention has to be paid to the top LHB in this lineup, Eddie Rosario (138 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). Joe Mauer (102 wRC+, .112 ISO) has a 221 wRC+ and 58.8 Hard% over the last week. Jake Cave (106 wRC+, .174 ISO) costs just $3.2K on DraftKings and a full $1K less on FanDuel.
Top half of the lineup could be too cheap against struggling pitcher
Jordan Zimmerman had his best start of the season (and maybe as a Tiger) against the Rangers (8 IP – 1 R – 11 K). He then allowed 13 runs over his next 14.2 innings (24 hits, six HRs) before bouncing back in Oakland last time out (6.1 IP – 2 ER – 6 K). However, he’s now allowed multiple HRs in four straight games with a 36.8 GB% and 43.4 Hard% in that span. Since last season, batters from either side of the plate are still above both a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Eddie Rosario (146 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a strong bat in this spot and more affordably priced than usual too. Joe Mauer (110 wRC+, .110 ISO, .396 xwOBA), Jorge Polanco (145 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Logan Forsythe (85 wRC+, .117 ISO) all seem a bit too cheap in the top half of a lineup implied for 4.57 runs too. Forsythe has a team high 175 wRC+ over the last week. This may not be the highest upside lineup on the board tonight, but for players paying up for pitching or bats elsewhere, it may have some value.
LHBs have a .444 wOBA and 53.6 Hard% against this pitcher
Shane Bieber has exceptional control and has carried an 18.5 K-BB% through eight starts, but maybe he's around the plate a bit too often. While a .378 BABIP is bound to regress, there's no denying he's allowed too much hard contact (89.9 mph aEV is worst on the board), particularly to LHBs (.444 wOBA, 53.6 Hard%). The Twins have a 4.50 implied run line that's dropped about a quarter of a run since earlier in the afternoon, but is still top third of the board. They recently traded one of their top LHBs, but still have enough to fill five of the first six spots with batters from that side tonight (RHBs have a .273 wOBA and 54.2 GB% against Bieber). Eddie Rosario (153 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a top bat tonight, while Joe Mauer (109 wRC+, .110 ISO, .400 xwOBA) and Jorge Polanco (159 wRC+, .225 ISO) are solid bargains even if the latter has an xwOBA (.317) 94 points below his actual against RHP over the last calendar year. Max Kepler (93 wRC+, .195 ISO) is also just $2.5K on FanDuel.
Twins face a bullpen with a 0.5 K-BB% over the last 30 days
The Twins are the top projected offense on the afternoon slate. Only one team (Nationals) is within a run of their 5.56 implied run line when they face the Kansas City bullpen this afternoon. Burch Smith will start for the first time since 2013. His last outing consisted of four innings and 50 pitches, both season highs. If the Royals are aggressive, perhaps they push him past 60, but that could still mean just three innings in this spot or as many as five. The less the Royals have to employ their bullpen, the better for them, as this unit has a 4.90 FIP and 0.5 K-BB% over the last 30 days. Eddie Rosario (152 wRC+, .296 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (135 wRC+, .297 ISO) have been the big bats against RHP over the last calendar year, but nearly the entire lineup has some value here. Joe Mauer (102 wRC+, .387 xwOBA, .095 ISO) costs less than $4K on DK and is $1K less on FD. Jorge Polanco (142 wRC+, .220 ISO) is $100 cheaper than Mauer on DK. Even Jake Cave (105 wRC+, ..394 xwOBA, .174 ISO) has been hitting the ball hard.
This well projected offense could fly under the radar tonight
The Twins aren't a top offense and the park in Minnesota may be deceptively run positive, which could run them under the radar tonight despite a 5.26 implied run line that's fifth on the board. Should they be able to able to handle Ian Kennedy, who has five games with multiple HRs allowed this season, they'll get into a bullpen with just a 0.3 K-BB% over the last month. Batters from either side of the plate have hit Kennedy well (above a .340 wOBA and .360 xwOBA since last year) with left-handed batters owning a 45 Hard% and 30.3 GB%. Eddie Rosario (153 wRC+, .298 ISO) is one of the top bats in the league against RHP over the last calendar year. Brian Dozier (115 wRC+, .216 ISO), Logan Morrison (98 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (136 wRC+, .299 ISO) each have two career HRs against Kennedy. Joe Mauer (103 wRC+, .388 xwOBA, .096 ISO) is one of the cheapest bats in the lineup in the leadoff spot.
A top bat and a value one in a matchup against a HR prone pitcher with platoon issues
The run line for the Twins is dropping (down to 4.53 from 4.8 just an hour or two ago), but Dylan Bundy is a pitcher who has significant issues with LHBs (.342 wOBA, .361 xwOBA since last year) and HRs (18 over his last 11 starts). Eddie Rosario (156 wRC+, .300 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) would seem like a high priced bat worth some exposure tonight and he probably will not be highly owned. Joe Mauer (101 wRC+, .385 xwOBA) would be a salary saver in that instance at just $3.6K on DraftKings and more than $1K less on FanDuel.
Top projected offense is facing a pitcher who has successfully limited hard contact recently
The Twins are the top projected offense tonight (5.3 implied runs) with only one other team above five runs. They'll host Andrew Cashner, who has completed six innings in four of his last five starts and has allowed three runs or less in all five. He did have a 14.5 K% in June with a 4.24 FIP, but with a -4.4 Hard-Soft% and also a .299 xwOBA over the last 30 days. He's been successfully limiting hard contact despite not missing bats. This could turn out to be a frustrating spot for Minnesota backers, but Cashner has allowed batters from either side a wOBA a point or two above .325 since last year with an xwOBA 15 to 25 points higher, despite hard hit rates below 30%. RHBs have hit ground balls 52.3% of the time to 38.1% for LHBs. This is a tough spot because paying up for a great bat like Eddie Rosario (157 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) could hinder the ability to squeeze in Verlander. The more interesting play here could be Joe Mauer (102 wRC+, .385 ISO, .099 ISO), who has a lineup leading 45.5 Hard% over the last week and costs just $2.5K on FanDuel (less than $4K on DK too). If Cashner does his standard six inning, three run job, then the Twins will have to squeeze out a few more against the bullpen to meet their projection.
Twins have two of the best hitters in baseball against RHP over the last calendar year
Reynaldo Lopez has just a 16.9 K% this season and LHBs have a .358 xwOBA against him with just a 29.1 GB% since alst season. The Minnesota Twins have a number of left-handed hitters at the top of the lineup who have had great success against RHP, which explains their 4.71 implied run line tonight that's a top seven mark on the board. Eddies' Rosario (160 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Escobar (140 wRC+, .294 ISO) have been the heavy hitters. Either Joe Mauer (111 wRC+, .390 xwOBA, .103 ISO) or Logan Morrison (101 wRC+, .213 ISO) can be a value type at a much lower cost at First Base. Players are certainly going to want to look for Kevin's updated forecast as he had some significant concerns about this game this morning.