Joe Musgrove

San Diego Padres
Pos: SP | Hand: R
Status: Active
player props
FPTS -2 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 SAL $7.8K $8.1K $8.5K $8.8K $9.2K $9.6K $9.9K $10.3K $10.6K $11K
  • FPTS: -5.4
  • FPTS: 4.15
  • FPTS: 24.7
  • FPTS: 0
  • FPTS: 5.6
  • FPTS: 10.9
  • FPTS: 16.15
  • FPTS: -3.75
  • FPTS: 25.1
  • FPTS: 0
  • FPTS: 0
  • FPTS: 0
  • FPTS: 0
  • FPTS: 9.15
  • FPTS: 16.4
  • FPTS: 0
  • SAL: $11K
  • SAL: $9.2K
  • SAL: $8.4K
  • SAL: $8.6K
  • SAL: $8.6K
  • SAL: $8.6K
  • SAL: $8K
  • SAL: $7.4K
  • SAL: $7.5K
  • SAL: $8.2K
  • SAL: $8.4K
  • SAL: $8.9K
  • SAL: $8.4K
  • SAL: $7.5K
  • SAL: $8K
  • SAL: $8K
03/30 04/03 04/09 04/10 04/15 04/21 04/27 05/01 05/12 05/12 05/17 05/20 05/21 05/26 06/01
Date Opp DKSAL FDSAL DKFPTS FDFPTS k ip ab sho w hra l er cg ha 3ba bba sba ibba whip hbp qstart 1ba k/9 2ba
2024-05-31 @ KC $8K $7.4K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-05-26 vs. NYY $8K $7.4K 16.4 28 5 5 20 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 1.13 0 0 4 8.44 2
2024-05-21 @ CIN $7.5K $8K 9.15 18 3 3 16 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 2 0 0 1.67 1 0 2 9 1
2024-05-20 @ ATL $8.4K $8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-05-17 @ ATL $8.9K $8.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-05-12 vs. LAD $8.4K $8.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-05-11 vs. LAD $8.2K $8.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-05-01 vs. CIN $7.5K $8.1K 25.1 43 9 6 22 0 0 1 0 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 0.67 0 1 1 13.5 2
2024-04-26 vs. PHI $7.4K $8.3K -3.75 2 4 3 21 0 0 4 1 7 0 8 0 2 0 0 2.73 0 0 1 9.82 3
2024-04-21 vs. TOR $8K $7.9K 16.15 31 3 7 26 0 1 2 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 0 0.71 1 1 2 3.86 1
2024-04-15 @ MIL $8.6K $8.3K 10.9 28 3 6 28 0 1 1 0 3 0 7 0 4 0 0 1.83 0 1 6 4.5 0
2024-04-09 vs. CHC $8.6K $8.3K 5.6 15 5 4 21 0 0 1 1 4 0 5 0 3 0 0 2 1 0 4 11.25 0
2024-04-08 vs. CHC $8.6K $8.2K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-04-03 vs. STL $8.4K $8.2K 24.7 46 7 6 23 0 1 0 0 1 0 5 0 1 0 0 1 2 1 4 10.5 1
2024-03-29 vs. SF $9.2K $9K 4.15 14 3 5 26 0 0 1 1 4 0 8 0 1 0 0 1.59 2 0 7 4.76 0
2024-03-21 @ LAD $11K -- -5.4 -1 2 2 17 0 0 0 0 5 0 7 0 2 1 0 3.38 0 0 6 6.75 1
2024-03-13 vs. OAK -- -- 18.75 31 5 4 19 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 0 0.92 1 0 2 10.38 0
2024-02-26 vs. CLE $4.5K -- -6.65 -7 0 1 10 0 0 1 1 4 0 3 0 1 0 0 2.4 0 0 1 0 1
2024-02-22 vs. LAD $7K -- -10.4 -12 0 0 4 0 0 0 1 4 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1
2023-09-29 @ CHW $9.5K $10.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-09-25 @ SF $9.7K $10.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-09-22 vs. STL $9.7K $10.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-09-13 @ LAD $9.6K $10.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-09-04 vs. PHI $9.7K $10.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-07-28 vs. TEX $9.7K $9.8K 23.9 43 5 6 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 2 7.5 2
2023-07-23 @ DET $12.2K $10.3K 14.7 31 6 6 25 0 0 2 1 3 0 7 0 1 0 0 1.33 0 1 5 9 0
2023-07-18 @ TOR $9.6K $9.6K 25.3 46 7 6 24 0 1 0 0 1 0 5 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 5 10.5 0
2023-07-15 @ PHI $9.2K $9.7K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-07-14 @ PHI $11.2K $9.7K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-07-09 vs. NYM $9.2K $9.6K 27.3 49 7 6 22 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0.5 4 1 3 10.5 0
2023-07-04 vs. LAA $8K $9.1K 37.35 61 11 7 26 0 1 1 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 0 0.57 0 1 2 14.14 0
2023-06-29 @ PIT $12.2K $9.1K 16.7 34 6 6 25 0 0 0 0 2 0 7 0 1 1 0 1.33 0 1 5 9 2
2023-06-23 vs. WSH $8.8K $8.9K 28.15 49 7 7 27 0 1 0 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 0.86 0 1 2 9 4
2023-06-18 vs. TB $8K $8.7K 10.1 25 1 6 25 0 1 0 0 2 0 6 0 1 1 0 1.17 2 1 6 1.5 0
2023-06-16 vs. TB $8.6K $8.5K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-06-13 vs. CLE $7.8K $8.5K 16.7 34 5 6 25 0 1 1 0 3 0 7 0 1 1 0 1.33 0 1 5 7.5 1
2023-06-07 vs. SEA $8.6K $8.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-06-06 vs. SEA $7.8K $8.3K 22.25 36 8 5 20 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 4 14.4 0
2023-06-02 vs. CHC $7.5K $7.5K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-06-01 @ MIA $7.3K $7.5K 19.9 37 3 6 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 1 0 1 0 1 3 4.5 0
2023-05-27 @ NYY $7.6K $7.5K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-05-26 @ NYY $7.5K $7.5K 24.65 44 6 6 25 0 1 0 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 0.95 0 1 5 8.53 1
2023-05-20 vs. BOS $7.4K $8.4K 10.45 21 6 5 26 0 0 1 1 4 0 6 0 1 0 0 1.4 1 0 3 10.8 2
2023-05-17 vs. KC $8.4K $9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-05-13 @ LAD $7.8K $9K 7.55 20 5 5 29 0 0 1 1 4 0 8 0 4 0 1 2.12 0 0 5 7.94 2
2023-05-07 vs. LAD $10.8K $9K 18.25 30 5 5 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 9 1
2023-05-05 vs. LAD $8.4K $9.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-30 vs. SF $8.7K $10.5K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-29 vs. SF $8.7K $10.5K -5.3 -2 3 3 18 0 0 3 0 7 0 6 0 1 0 0 2.1 1 0 2 8.1 1
2023-04-22 @ ARI $9.2K $9.9K 17.05 30 6 5 21 0 1 1 0 3 0 7 0 0 0 0 1.4 0 0 5 10.8 1
2023-04-15 vs. MIL $10.9K $9.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-12 @ NYM $10.1K $9.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-06 @ ATL $9.2K $9.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-04 vs. ARI $59 $9.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-03-08 vs. CIN -- -- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-03-04 @ ARI -- -- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022-10-21 @ PHI $7.4K -- 8.75 20 5 5 24 0 0 1 1 4 0 8 0 2 0 0 1.77 0 0 3 7.94 4
2022-10-15 vs. LAD $8.4K $9.6K 20.1 40 8 6 27 0 0 0 0 2 0 6 0 3 0 0 1.5 0 1 3 12 3
2022-10-09 @ NYM $8.2K -- 28.55 46 5 7 23 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0.29 0 1 1 6.43 0
2022-10-03 vs. SF $8.7K $10K 25.1 43 7 6 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0.67 0 1 2 10.5 0
2022-09-28 vs. LAD $8.9K $9.8K 21.85 39 8 5 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 4 0 0 1.6 1 0 2 14.4 2
2022-09-22 vs. STL $10.3K $9.9K 13.05 24 4 5 21 0 0 1 0 1 0 5 0 2 0 0 1.4 0 0 3 7.2 1
2022-09-17 @ ARI $8.4K $10.3K 31.1 52 8 6 22 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0.67 0 1 2 12 2
2022-09-11 vs. LAD $8.9K $10.5K 9.2 19 5 5 23 0 0 2 1 4 0 6 0 1 0 1 1.31 1 0 3 8.44 1
2022-09-06 vs. ARI $9.5K $10.4K 1.15 10 3 4 24 0 0 3 0 4 0 9 0 2 0 0 2.54 0 0 5 6.23 1
2022-08-31 @ SF $9K $10.5K 30.8 54 11 6 26 0 1 0 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 0 0.75 2 1 2 14.85 1
2022-08-26 @ KC $9.3K $10.8K 2.85 11 2 3 21 0 0 1 0 2 0 8 0 1 1 0 2.46 0 0 5 4.91 2
2022-08-20 vs. WSH $10.1K $10.5K 22.5 40 7 6 24 0 0 1 0 1 0 4 0 0 0 0 0.67 1 1 3 10.5 0
2022-08-15 @ MIA $8.6K $10.8K 12.1 28 5 6 26 0 0 1 1 3 0 8 1 0 1 0 1.33 1 1 6 7.5 0
2022-08-09 vs. SF $9.6K $10.5K 17.55 34 4 7 27 0 0 1 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 0.86 1 1 4 5.14 1
2022-08-04 vs. COL $9.5K $10.8K 5.1 14 6 4 22 0 0 1 1 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1.93 0 0 5 11.57 2
2022-07-30 vs. MIN $9.6K $10.6K 21.3 40 8 6 23 0 0 1 1 2 0 4 0 2 0 0 1 1 1 3 12 0
2022-07-24 @ NYM $10.6K $10K 7.2 16 4 5 24 0 0 1 1 4 0 5 0 2 0 0 1.31 1 0 2 6.75 2
2022-07-13 @ COL $9.6K $10.4K 3.25 12 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 9 0 0 0 0 1.8 1 0 6 7.2 3
2022-07-07 vs. SF $9.7K $11.1K 24.15 43 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 0 0.71 1 1 0 7.71 1
2022-06-30 @ LAD $9.7K $11.1K 26.15 46 10 7 0 0 0 2 1 3 0 5 1 1 0 0 0.86 0 1 2 12.86 0
2022-06-23 vs. PHI $9.9K $11.5K -1.3 3 1 6 0 0 0 2 1 6 0 7 0 1 0 0 1.33 0 0 4 1.5 1
2022-06-16 @ CHC $16.2K $11.3K 30.15 52 9 7 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 5 0 1 1 0 0.86 0 1 4 11.57 0
2022-06-10 vs. COL $10.5K $10.9K 29.9 52 8 6 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 3 12 1

Joe Musgrove Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Joe Musgrove has been scratched Saturday, Randy Vasquez will start for the Padres.

Joe Musgrove has been scratched Saturday, Randy Vasquez will start for the Padres.

Joe Musgrove scratched; Nick Martinez will start for the Padres on Wednesday

Joe Musgrove scratched; Nick Martinez will start for the Padres on Wednesday

Consistent Top of the Board Arm Has Potential to Outpitch His Projection

Depending on your site of choice, Thursday night features either a nine or 10 game schedule with FanDuel omitting the second game of the double-header in Cincinnati that currently looks to be a bullpen special for the home team. FanDuel still features four $10K pitchers, only one of whom reaches that price point on DraftKings. All three remaining pitchers exceed $9K on DraftKings without any other pitcher doing so. Maybe Joe Musgrove was looking ahead because he followed up a season low single strikeout performance and first non-Quality Start against the Phillies by striking out 10 of 26 Dodgers in his 13th Quality Start of the season. Musgrove adds a tremendous contact profile (86.2 mph EV, 4.8% Barrels/BBE, 47.7 GB%) to an incredibly strong 20.3 K-BB% to produced estimators ranging from a 2.86 xERA to a 3.24 SIERA. Musgrove faced a good (104 wRC+, 22.7 K% vs RHP), but struggling San Francisco offense (73 wRC+, 3.2 HR/FB last seven days) in a pitcher friendly park. The most expensive pitcher on the board ($11.1K FD) is just the fifth best projected arm on either site and a marginally projected value, though slightly better on DK, where he’s $1.4K less. More consistent than any pitcher on the slate or in the league, Musgrove makes an excellent pivot if his ownership numbers look like they may be suppressed. Find out which two pitchers project better than Musgrove and which top end arm projects similarly in a similar spot in Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Most Consistent Pitcher on the Board Tonight

Nearly the middle of June and we’ve finally come to our first full 15 game slate of the season on Friday night. This slate is unique in a number of ways. Aside from including all 30 teams, only two domed environments are in play on Friday night without any of the extremely hitter friendly run environments (Colorado, Cincinnati, Boston). In fact, the most positive run environment on the board (weather factors included from Weather Edge) might be the game between the Mets and Angels tonight, which may not include Mike Trout or Pete Alonso. But we’re here right now to talk about pitching, first and foremost about the three $10K arms on the slate. And all three cost more than $10K on both sites with two additional arms above $9K on both sites, who are likely over-priced, but we’ll get to that later.

No pitcher costs more than Joe Musgrove on either site ($10.9K FanDuel, $10.5K DraftKings). While he is not missing bats at an elite rate this year (24.8 K%, 11.3 SwStr%), continued elite control (5.4 BB%) and contact management (86.5 mph EV, 4.5% Barrels/BBE) have allowed him to be a workhorse and pile up strikeouts by pitching deep into games. He’s recorded a Quality Start in all 10 outings this year, all of the two earned run or fewer variety, facing no fewer than 25 batters in seven straight starts and failing to strike out at least six just twice this year. With no more than eight strikeouts in any start either, it may not be the highest ceiling, but it’s a damn high and enviable floor in a favorable home park with a strong run prevention matchup (Rockies 85 wRC+, 21.4 K% vs RHP – 43 wRC+ last seven days). Musgrove is our second best projected overall arm by PlateIQ (projections subject to change), but does project for the highest floor on FanDuel, making him a better cash game play, but strong in either format, even if not among the top projected values. Which pitcher currently projects better than Musgrove and why might other high priced pitchers not be good choices tonight? Find the answers on Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Competence Rather than Dominant at the Top of the Board Tonight

Julio Urias is the only pitcher above $10K on either site on a night where there’s no clear top pitcher on a 10 game slate. The largest obstacle to Julio Urias’s daily fantasy usefulness is workload because the rate stats are fantastic (21.7 K-BB%, 86.2 mph EV, 5.9% Barrels/BBE). Estimators are a bit above his ERA, but range from a 3.27 FIP to a 3.67 xFIP. Consider that he has allowed more than three earned runs just five times this year, but only has just 12 quality starts in 28 attempts. However, he has competed seven innings with one run or less seven times too. Can he return some value on this price tag? Sure, but he just has to be extremely efficient to get there. The first four in the projected lineup for Arizona all strike out less than 19% of the time against LHP this season, but the bottom four exceed 27% with the caveat being that two of the bottom four have fewer than 20 PAs against LHP this year.

Jose Urquidy is the second most expensive pitcher on either site and he costs exactly $10K on DraftKings. The major prolemb here is that he has been brought back slowly after two months on the IL, striking out six of the 33 batters he’s faced over two starts. On the season, Urquidy strikes out enough to be effective (21.4%) with elite control (4.8 BB%), but has generated just 31.4% of his control on the ground. His 3.51 ERA is well below contact neutral estimators, but just slightly below a 3.61 xERA. The matchup is great in a pitcher friendly park when the roof is closed against an offense with just an 87 wRC+ vs RHP, while four in the projected lineup exceed a 25 K% vs RHP this year, but he hasn’t thrown more than 71 pitches since June.

Now that we’ve realized our pitching needs aren’t going to be extremely expensive tonight, we find Joe Musgrove and Sean Manaea exceeding $9K on both sites. Both are actually slightly less expensive (and therefore better values) on FanDuel. Musgrove has probably ended up being San Diego’s best pitching acquisition this year even if his 2.93 ERA is more than a half run below all non-DRA estimators. He’s struck out 27.6% with just a 6.9 BB% and 6.1% Barrels/BBE, He has seven quality starts over his last nine attempts with an 86.5 mph EV. He has a tough matchup (Giants 116 wRC+ at home, 109 wRC+ vs RHP) in a favorable park with some upside (five batters in the projected San Francisco lineup exceed a 23 K% vs RHP).

After struggling through the month of August (9.90 ERA, 7.96 FIP), Manaea has certainly bounced back in September. He’s completed seven innings with nine strikeouts in both his starts, allowing just three total runs against the Blue Jays and White Sox, two offenses that normally crush LHP. All estimators are back below four, within one-quarter of a run of his 3.79 ERA. While Kansas City isn’t really a negative run environment as much as it’s a power suppressing one, conditions may be slightly in Manaea’s favor, considering weather and umpire. The Royals are slightly better against LHP (96 wRC+), while only two batters in the projected lineup exceed a 20.5 K% against LHP this year. Expectations need to be limited for pitchers tonight, as we’re probably settling more for competence than finding dominance.

Lower Priced Pitching Offers More Compliments Than Alternatives

The middle and bottom of the board tonight is bare enough that players probably want to pay $10K for their pitching needs tonight with cheaper arms here mostly in consideration for your SP2 on DraftKings. One exception is probably Joe Musgrove, who costs more than $9K on both sites. Musgrove has five quality starts in his last six outings and has allowed more than one run in just one of his last five. The strikeouts are back up with a 30.6 K% and 15 SwStr% over the last month with his velocity increasing as well. For the season, a 3.65 xERA is his only estimator not within half a run of his 3.04 ERA. The projected lineup for the Angels includes just two batters below a 25 K% vs RHP this season. Calling Musgrove an alternative to higher priced pitching isn’t entirely fair because he doesn’t miss that price range by much, but will save you a few dollars.

Otherwise, Dallas Keuchel is still getting his ground balls (55.8%), but that’s about the only positive. He has just a 14.1 K% and has allowed 9.6% Barrels/BBE despite all that contact on the ground. He doesn’t have a single estimator below four and a half. However, he costs just $6.6K on DraftKings and the projected Cubs’ lineup includes just four batters below a 30 K% vs LHP this season. Jake Odorizzi has just two quality starts on the season with a 4.52 ERA that’s still lower than all his estimators, but he did strike out eight in his last start, costs just $6.7K on DraftKings and gets the Rangers (six of nine projected above a 24 K% vs RHP this seaon) in a negative run environment if the roof is closed in Texas.

Over the last month, Logan Gilbert’s strikeout rate has dropped to 22.1% with multiple home runs allowed in three of five starts. On a positive note, he’s allowed more home runs (seven) than barrels (six) with a strong 16.8 K-BB%, while he’s faced some of the deeper lineups in the American League (and Texas) over this run. Despite the 5.16 ERA (63.4 LOB%), all estimators are still below four this year. The Royals have a 79 wRC+ on the road, 85 wRC+ vs RHP and five batters in the projected Kansas City lineup have at least a 26 K% vs RHP this season. In one of the most negative run environments in baseball, Gilbert costs $8K or less on either site.

A potential breakout season has suddenly turned ugly on Sean Manaea. Over four August starts, he’s allowed 17 runs (all earned) in 15.2 innings, striking out just 14 of 79 batters with five home runs and a 91.9 mph EV. His ERA is up to 3.77, which nearly perfectly in line with all of his estimators, ranging from a 3.58 xFIP to a 3.95 xERA. If you’re looking for Manaea to rebound, there’s a chance he’s under-priced within $100 of $8.5K on either site and nobody is going to be playing him against the scorching Yankees (113 wRC+, 16 HR/FB vs LHP), but five of nine projected starters exceed a 24 K% vs LHP and it is a very forgiving park.

The One Pitcher in a Very Favorable Spot on Monday Night

Monday’s board includes five games, though some slates include just four games, omitting either the earliest in Cleveland or latest in San Diego. None the less, two of the 10 pitchers reach $10K on at least one site tonight and two more reach at least $9K, making 40-50% of any slate top of the board arms and to be honest, they’re somewhat difficult to separate. Freddy Peralta is the most expensive pitcher on either site by at least $500 and available on all slates. He has a 34.1 K% (14.2 SwStr%) that tops the board (on any slate on either site) by a touchdown. An 11% walk rate has hurt his volume occasionally by running his pitch count up quicker, but he’s walked just seven of his last 82. A 32.1 GB% hasn’t been a problem with an 87.1 mph EV, 15.8 IFFB% and 5.8% Barrels/BBE. His worst estimator is a 3.66 xFIP. While the projected Cubs’ lineup includes four batters above a 27 K% and just two above a .315 wOBA vs RHP this year, there are two significant issues here and both revolve around weather. Weather Edge suggests a large offensive boost at Wrigley tonight with a double digit wind blowing out towards left-center currently. However, Kevin’s forecast is ORANGE and there’s at least some chance this game doesn’t play at all.

The Kansas City Royals took Lucas Giolito deep three times and scored six total runs against him last time out. Three starts back, he walked five. Overall, Lucas Giolito still has a 20.2 K-BB% with only a 3.31 xERA more than a quarter run removed from a 3.98 ERA. This suggests there’s been some misfortune to a 15.1 HR/FB on a 31.9 GB%, despite just 7.5% Barrels/BBE. He’s allowed just two fewer home runs (22) than barrels (24) this year. While the Twins have a 105 wRC+ and 15.9 HR/FB vs RHP this year, tonight’s projected lineup includes just two above a .325 wOBA and five above a 27 K% vs RHP this year. Here, again, the issue may be that Weather Edge projects a run scoring boost, but in a small sample and with the wind blowing in.

Over his last five starts, Luis Castillo has a (30.2 K% - second best today), 59.7 GB% and 1.78 ERA. Of course, estimators are about double that (95.2 LOB%), but that’s a far cry from where he started the season. He’s produced a quality start in nine of his last 10 efforts. A 4.20 SIERA is the only estimator above his 4.09 ERA this season. The lineup he projects to face includes five batters below a 20.5 K% vs RHP this year, but the remaining four above 33%. Cleveland is a slightly positive run environment, but perfectly fine on this slate. In fact, it may be the most negative run environment on slates not including San Diego, considering weather. The biggest issue with Castillo is that he may not be available on your preferred slate. If he is, he’s just the third most expensive pitcher on FanDuel tonight ($9.2K).

Joe Musgrove seems to be moving in the right direction with three straight quality starts (19 IP – 3 R) over his last three starts, but two were against the Marlins and Rockies and he struck out more than five in just one. Season numbers are still fantastic (21.5 K-BB%, 87.7 mph EV, 6.4% Barrels/BBE). Estimators are packed tightly around three and a half, a bit more than a half run above his 2.87 ERA (.244 BABIP, 79.4 LOB%). The Marlins are also who he’ll be facing again tonight too. While the projected lineup has just one batter above a 24 K% vs RHP this season, there’s also only one batter above a .200 ISO and Musgrove has the only secure negative run environment of the five games. He’s potentially the best value on the board and perhaps the top overall pitching option as well, considering the weather issues in Chicago, for $9K on FanDuel and $5K less on DraftKings. The two issues here would be his availability on your preferred slate and, of course, ownership. On DraftKings slates that don’t include Cleveland and two pitchers are necessary, he would seem a nearly impossible fade.

Additional pitching options include Sam Hentges, who hasn’t started since July 7th and doesn’t have an estimator below 4.90, Alec Mills, who has struck out just four of his last 72 batters (5.5 SwStr%) and has just one start with a double digit SwStr% this year in a spot where the weather may be impossible, Beau Burrows, who is likely an opener and has walked more than he’s struck out in his nine innings out of the pen for the Twins and has a tough assignment against the White Sox, Zach Thompson, who has a 3.8 K-BB% over his last four starts and faces a contact prone San Diego lineup and the matchup in Kansas City, where Jameson Taillon faces Carlos Hernandez in another potentially weather boosted park. Taillon has been fine overall (17 K-BB%, 4.20 SIERA, 3.90 xERA) and will likely be a popular SP2 choice on DraftKings for less than $8K. Hernandez has struck out 18 of 71 (10.4 SwStr%) in four starts. He’s also walked nine with a 32.6 GB% and 90.8 mph EV. A 4.08 ERA is a bit below a 4.30 FIP (11.8 HR/FB) and 4.53 xFIP (.220 BABIP) over this span. The only attraction here is a $6.2K price tag, which will likely garner him some ownership on this slate.

The Top Pitching Value on FanDuel Tonight

If not paying up for one of many $10K arms tonight, high upside matchups pop for Aaron Civale (at Tigers), Cole Irvin (vs Mariners) and Joe Musgrove (at Brewers). Wait…Joe Musgrove? How did he escape the $10K mob tonight? He does reach $9.5K on DraftKings, making him the third most expensive pitcher there, but is over $1K less on FanDuel, potentially making him the top value on that site tonight. Bouncing back from a rough two start stretch where he allowed 10 of his 16 runs, he’s allowed just one over his last two starts. Most recently, Musgrove struck out 11 Rockies, his third double digit strikeout effort of the season, putting him at 34.7% of batters with a 15 SwStr%. In addition to a 5.4 BB%, nearly half his contact (48.7%) has been on the ground with an 87.5 mph EV. A 3.38 xERA is his only estimator more than half a run removed from his 2.47 ERA. The projected lineup for the Brewers does not include a single batter above a .330 wOBA or .182 ISO vs RHP since 2020 (and both of those are Dan Vogelbach). It also includes four batters above a 27 K% vs RHP over that span.

As for the other two pitchers, Aaron Civale has changed so much for a small effect to his overall line. He’s completely over-hauled his arsenal and increased his ground ball rate (48.4%), but a lot of that has come from his line drives (19.5%), as his fly ball rate remains virtually the same and his 3.30 ERA is mostly the product of a .233 BABIP. His strikeouts, walks and exit velocity are all fairly similar to his career rates. Between $8-9K on either site, most of his value in a great matchup (Tigers 91 wRC+, 27.2 K% vs RHP) is tied to his workload. Civale has recorded seventh inning outs in six of nine starts. In a stretch of four starts from April 17th to May 4th that included the Tigers and Rays, Cole Irvin struck out 29 of 99 batters, so he’s proven that he can show up in a high upside spot, as tonight’s matchup with the Mariners (77 wRC+, 29.5 K% vs LHP) is and at $7.2K or less, he’s a fine alternate choice and would be the top SP2 on DraftKings if Kevin Gausman didn’t cost just $500 more. However, beware that outside that four start stretch, Irvin has struck out just 11 of 120, though three of those five starts have come against the Astros.

Velocity, Ground Balls and Strikeouts Up

The pitching duel of the night is expected to take place in San Diego where Brandon Woodruff faces Joe Musgrove. Woodruff’s core numbers look a lot like they did last year: 24.6 K-BB% (24.9 last year), 46.3 GB% (49.4% last year) and 96.8 mph fastball velocity (same as last year). The biggest difference so far has been a nearly five mph increase in average exit velocity (86.7 to 91.2), though he’s yet to allow a Barrel after 7.2% of contact last year. That’s not very predictive though. The biggest drawback for Woodruff was his 22.5 batters faced per start since last year and he’s failed to exceed 23 in three attempts this year. On a more positive note, he exceeded 25 batters faced and 100 pitches in three of his last four starts last year and after behind held below 80 pitches in each of his first two starts this year, he threw 95 last time out. We can be hopeful he’ll get a longer leash going forward.

Joe Musgrove allowed his first run (and home run) to his old team last time out, but that was it. He’s struck out 24 of 67 with a 14 SwStr% and walked just two (32.8 K-BB%). His velocity is up over a mile per hour and 23 of his 40 batted balls (88 mph EV, two Barrels) have been on the ground. The Padres have encouraged an increase in cutter usage (8.9% career to 25.1% this year), along with a drop in four-seam fastballs (34.9% to 12.5%) and sinkers (11.7% to 7%). He’ll be facing an ugly Milwaukee lineup this year. They have just a 76 wRC+ vs RHP and are currently without Christian Yelich. From a run prevention standpoint, four of eight projected starters for the Brewers are below a 90 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019 with nobody above 121. Only one batter is above a .203 ISO as well. Four of eight batters are below a 90 wRC+ this season overall. Since 2019, Musgrove doesn’t have much of a split, so it’s not like the Brewers can find some kind of a platoon advantage either. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .282 to .315 wOBA and xwOBA against Mugrove and he’s very likely going to improve on those numbers this season. Musgrove isn’t the only strong pitching play tonight, but there’s a decent chance he’s the top one, which is likely why he’s also the only pitcher above $10K on either site.

Facing a K Prone Lineup With a 50 Whiff% Slider

Joe Musgrove had a 33.1 K% last year with an increase in walks (9.6%), a 3.86 ERA and all estimators slightly lower last year. Some prognosticators see the 2020 season as the beginning of his ascension to the next level. His debut for the Padres did nothing to dissuade that notion. He struck out eight of 21 Diamondbacks without a walk or Barrel on 13 batted balls, seven of which were on the ground. His velocity was up (a mile per hour to 93.5), as was his cutter usage (24.4%). Six of his strikeouts came on the 17 sliders he threw though (53.8 Whiff%), a pitch that had a 50.6 Whiff% last year. Musgrove doesn’t have much of a split. Batters from either side of the plate have exactly a .299 xwOBA against him since 2019 though actual wOBA drops RHBs by eight points and increases LHBs by 20. Most importantly, however, is that the projected lineup for the Rangers includes five batters below a 90 wRC+ and three below even a .100 ISO vs RHP since 2019. Only Joey Gallo and Nate Lowe even average more than 92 mph of exit velocity on fly ball vs RHP over that same span. So we have not only a smaller risk, but a lot of strikeouts as well. PlateIQ shows only three batters projected tonight below a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. Other positive indicators include a potentially closed roof in Texas and one of the best defenses in the game behind Musgrove. With four pitchers priced ahead of him, Musgrove may be the top value on DraftKings with a decent chance of being the top arm overall tonight.