Joey Gallo Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The biggest question when filtering LineupHQ by P/S is if the Dodgers project so well (nearly a full run separated from the rest of the board with only one other offense above four and a half implied runs) that the top projecting bats on the board also projected as top values. The answer, at least on FanDuel, is a resounding yes. Joey Gallo (100 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP this year) is the only Dodger bat projecting as a top 10 value and only projects outside the top 10 bats overall while the second game of the doubleheader in Washington is still on the board. Costing $1K less on FanDuel, Gallo projects as a top 10 bat and value. Within $100 of $3K, both Max Muncy (113 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Will Smith (125 wRC+, .209 ISO) also project as top 10 bats and values. If you need to go even cheaper, Chris Taylor (97 wRC+, .164 ISO) and Gavin Lux (122 wRC+, .137 ISO) project as top FanDuel values for just $2.1K as well. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .347 and .368 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

We also find a pair of Seattle Mariners projecting among the top 10 FanDuel values against Ken Waldichuk, who has struck out a respectable 20.6% of the batters he’s faced, while walking just 6.9% through his first five starts. However, the contact profile has been a complete disaster (90.3 mph EV, 15.5% Barrels/BBE, 47.9% 95+ mph EV). RHBs have a .439 wOBA and .371 xwOBA against him. Dylan Moore (146 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Carlos Santana (129 wRC+, .147 ISO) cost not much more than the minimum.

On DraftKings, a pair of Washington bats (Victor Robles & Josh Palacios) project as strong values for $2.1K or less against Noah Syndergaard, but Hurricane Ian may have some say on whether that game gets played or not. The only other pair of teammates projecting as top 10 DraftKings values are in Detroit tonight. Tyler Alexander tied a season high with five strikeouts last time out, only the second time he’s done so. As a matter of fact, he’s generated only 17 more strikeouts (50) than barrels (33) with both rates barely in double digits (13.2 K%, 10.7% Barrels/BBE). His 4.68 ERA is actually below all estimators. RHBs have done well against him this year (.337 wOBA, .345 xwOBA). Gary Sanchcez (65 wRC+, .126 ISO) costs $3K and Gilberto Celestino (68 wRC+) the minimum.

An implied run line of just four and a quarter places the Texas offense right in the middle of tonight’s 22 team board, but there are several reasons that suggest this is a spot worth attacking tonight. Let’s first mention a few things about tonight’s opposing pitcher, Casey Mize. Although he is maintaining half his contact on the ground (50.5%), the strikeout rate is down to 17.4% (9.1 SwStr%) over his last five starts. At 95.1 innings pitched now, one has to wonder if he’s beginning to tire, having thrown less than 150 innings in the Detroit organization coming into this year since being drafted in 2018. A somewhat slow and steady velocity drop this year seems to support that idea. An 82.5 LOB% still creates the illusion of above average production, while his lowest estimator is now a 4.22 xFIP, his worst a 5.06 xERA. Now, perhaps the extended rest that the All-Star break affords allows Mize to return rejuvenated and pumping heat tonight. In that case, he still has to deal with a massive platoon split that has LHBs hitting for a .385 wOBA and 17 home runs in 255 career plate appearances against Mize. Lastly, although it’s a small sample, Weather Edge is calling for a significant offensive bump tonight, which could make Detroit a positive run environment tonight. In the middle of this lineup, players could get one of the top overall bats on the slate in Joey Gallo (149 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP this year), followed by one of the top values in Jonah Heim (86 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP this year, 107 wRC+ last 30 days overall) for less than $2.5K. Nate Lowe (117 wRC+, .164 ISO) also costs less than $2.5K on FanDuel and has a 151 wRC+ over the last 30 days.

Wily Peralta has thrown just 14 innings this year and since 2019 with a 3.21 ERA, but that’s due almost entirely to a .190 BABIP. He’s struck out just eight of 58 batters with 52.3% of his contact on the ground, but at a 92.3 mph EV. This is a spot where we should like LH Texas bats because batters from that side have a .362 wOBA against Peralta in his career. That’s also the side the red hot Joey Gallo (116 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2020), who has a 206 wRC+ over the last 30 days, and Nate Lowe (122 wRC+, .198 ISO) bat from. While the latter costs just $2.6K on FanDuel, you’ll need to pay up on DraftKings. However, a potential punt catcher might be Jonah Heim, who has just a 67 wRC+ vs RHP since last year, but the switch hitter is projected to hit in the middle of the lineup tonight and has a .307 wOBA against RHP since last year that’s 41 points higher than his actual mark. While that’s still only a league average mark, Heim costs $2.5K or less on either site and has a 119 wRC+ over the last month.

According to pitcher splits, the most advantageous spot on the board may be in favor of LH Texas bats tonight. Jorge Lopez has generated a 17.8 HR/FB, 9.5% Barrels/BBE and 90 mph EV overall in his career, but when it comes to batters with the platoon advantage, things have been even more destructive. From that side of the plate, hitters have a .397 wOBA that’s backed by a .393 xwOBA. The projected lineup for the Rangers doesn’t include a lot of potency from either side of the plate. In fact, the number of strikeouts in that lineup makes this the highest spot on the board for pitchers. However, the nature of daily fantasy scoring doesn’t preclude both sides of a matchup being advantageous if there are enough strikeouts and home runs involved. Two batters players will want to look at here are Joey Gallo (115 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and Nate Lowe (114 wRC+, .218 ISO). Each costs exactly $3.1K on FanDuel and are reasonably priced on DraftKings for the upside. With both players exceeding a 28 K% against RHP over the same span, they could help fill up both sides of the score card tonight.

Ryan Castellani struck out three of the 14 Mariners he faced (11.7 SwStr%), while walking one without allowing a hit in his major league debut. Five of his nine batted balls were on the ground, but he generated a flaming 98 mph exit velocity despite not allowing a single barrel. Without a minor league season this year, the Mariners were at a disadvantage against an unkown like Castellani, low on the prospect list. He had just a 7.9 K-BB% in 10 AAA starts last year and now there’s some video on him. While he’s unlikely to go deep into this game and the Colorado bullpen has exceeded expectations (4.76 ERA, but 3.27 FIP), players have to side with Texas bats at Coors here. They have the highest implied run line on the slate (6.64) despite having just a 60 wRC+ and 4.7 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Joey Gallo (116 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP since 2019) costs $4K on FanDuel, but has massive upside in this spot and could be considered the top overall bat on the board. He may hit one that doesn’t come down until Sunday.